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The data-collection on adverse effects of anti-HIV drugs (D:A:D) model for predicting cardiovascular events: External validation in a diverse cohort of people living with HIV.


ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Little is known about the external validity of the Data-collection on Adverse Effects of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) model for predicting cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among people living with HIV (PLWH). We aimed to evaluate the performance of the updated D:A:D model for 5-year CVD risk in a diverse group of PLWH engaged in HIV care.

Methods

We used data from an institutional HIV registry, which includes PLWH engaged in care at a safety-net HIV clinic. Eligible individuals had a baseline clinical encounter between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2014, with follow-up through to 31 December 2019. We estimated 5-year predicted risks of CVD as a function of the prognostic index and baseline survival of the D:A:D model, which were used to assess model discrimination (C-index), calibration and net benefit.

Results

Our evaluable population comprised 1029 PLWH, of whom 30% were female, 50% were non-Hispanic black, and median age was 45 years. The C-index was 0.70 [95% confidence limits (CL): 0.64-0.75]. The predicted 5-year CVD risk was 3.0% and the observed 5-year risk was 8.9% (expected/observed ratio = 0.33, 95% CL: 0.26-0.54). The model had a greater net benefit than treating all or treating none at a risk threshold of 10%.

Conclusions

The D:A:D model was miscalibrated for CVD risk among PLWH engaged in HIV care at an urban safety-net HIV clinic, which may be related to differences in case-mix and baseline CVD risk. Nevertheless, the HIV D:A:D model may be useful for decisions about CVD intervention for high-risk patients.

SUBMITTER: Anikpo I 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9290794 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

The data-collection on adverse effects of anti-HIV drugs (D:A:D) model for predicting cardiovascular events: External validation in a diverse cohort of people living with HIV.

Anikpo Ifedioranma I   Agovi Afiba Manza-A AM   Cvitanovich Matthew J MJ   Lonergan Frank F   Johnson Marc M   Ojha Rohit P RP  

HIV medicine 20210819 10


<h4>Objectives</h4>Little is known about the external validity of the Data-collection on Adverse Effects of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) model for predicting cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among people living with HIV (PLWH). We aimed to evaluate the performance of the updated D:A:D model for 5-year CVD risk in a diverse group of PLWH engaged in HIV care.<h4>Methods</h4>We used data from an institutional HIV registry, which includes PLWH engaged in care at a safety-net HIV clinic. Eligible individu  ...[more]

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