Dataset Information

Development of Various Diabetes Prediction Models Using Machine Learning Techniques.

ABSTRACT:

Background

There are many models for predicting diabetes mellitus (DM), but their clinical implication remains vague. Therefore, we aimed to create various DM prediction models using easily accessible health screening test parameters.

Methods

Two sets of variables were used to develop eight DM prediction models. One set comprised 62 easily accessible examination results of commonly used variables from a tertiary university hospital. The second set comprised 27 of the 62 variables included in the national routine health checkups. Gradient boosting and random forest algorithms were used to develop the models. Internal validation was performed using the stratified 10-fold cross-validation method.

Results

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) for the 62-variable DM model making 12-month predictions for subjects without diabetes was the largest (0.928) among those of the eight DM prediction models. The ROC-AUC dropped by more than 0.04 when training with the simplified 27-variable set but still showed fairly good performance with ROC-AUCs between 0.842 and 0.880. The accuracy was up to 11.5% higher (from 0.807 to 0.714) when fasting glucose was included.

Conclusion

We created easily applicable diabetes prediction models that deliver good performance using parameters commonly assessed during tertiary university hospital and national routine health checkups. We plan to perform prospective external validation, hoping that the developed DM prediction models will be widely used in clinical practice.

SUBMITTER: Shin J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9353566 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Development of Various Diabetes Prediction Models Using Machine Learning Techniques.

Shin Juyoung J Kim Jaewon J Lee Chanjung C Yoon Joon Young JY Kim Seyeon S Song Seungjae S Kim Hun-Sung HS

Diabetes & metabolism journal 20220311 4

<h4>Background</h4>There are many models for predicting diabetes mellitus (DM), but their clinical implication remains vague. Therefore, we aimed to create various DM prediction models using easily accessible health screening test parameters.<h4>Methods</h4>Two sets of variables were used to develop eight DM prediction models. One set comprised 62 easily accessible examination results of commonly used variables from a tertiary university hospital. The second set comprised 27 of the 62 variables ...[more]

PMID: 35272434

Similar Datasets

Project description:BACKGROUND:Diabetes Mellitus is an increasingly prevalent chronic disease characterized by the body's inability to metabolize glucose. The objective of this study was to build an effective predictive model with high sensitivity and selectivity to better identify Canadian patients at risk of having Diabetes Mellitus based on patient demographic data and the laboratory results during their visits to medical facilities. METHODS:Using the most recent records of 13,309 Canadian patients aged between 18 and 90 years, along with their laboratory information (age, sex, fasting blood glucose, body mass index, high-density lipoprotein, triglycerides, blood pressure, and low-density lipoprotein), we built predictive models using Logistic Regression and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) techniques. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AROC) was used to evaluate the discriminatory capability of these models. We used the adjusted threshold method and the class weight method to improve sensitivity - the proportion of Diabetes Mellitus patients correctly predicted by the model. We also compared these models to other learning machine techniques such as Decision Tree and Random Forest. RESULTS:The AROC for the proposed GBM model is 84.7% with a sensitivity of 71.6% and the AROC for the proposed Logistic Regression model is 84.0% with a sensitivity of 73.4%. The GBM and Logistic Regression models perform better than the Random Forest and Decision Tree models. CONCLUSIONS:The ability of our model to predict patients with Diabetes using some commonly used lab results is high with satisfactory sensitivity. These models can be built into an online computer program to help physicians in predicting patients with future occurrence of diabetes and providing necessary preventive interventions. The model is developed and validated on the Canadian population which is more specific and powerful to apply on Canadian patients than existing models developed from US or other populations. Fasting blood glucose, body mass index, high-density lipoprotein, and triglycerides were the most important predictors in these models.

Project description:Background and objectiveDiabetes is a life-threatening chronic disease with a growing global prevalence, necessitating early diagnosis and treatment to prevent severe complications. Machine learning has emerged as a promising approach for diabetes diagnosis, but challenges such as limited labeled data, frequent missing values, and dataset imbalance hinder the development of accurate prediction models. Therefore, a novel framework is required to address these challenges and improve performance.MethodsIn this study, we propose an innovative pipeline-based multi-classification framework to predict diabetes in three classes: diabetic, non-diabetic, and prediabetes, using the imbalanced Iraqi Patient Dataset of Diabetes. Our framework incorporates various pre-processing techniques, including duplicate sample removal, attribute conversion, missing value imputation, data normalization and standardization, feature selection, and k-fold cross-validation. Furthermore, we implement multiple machine learning models, such as k-NN, SVM, DT, RF, AdaBoost, and GNB, and introduce a weighted ensemble approach based on the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) to address dataset imbalance. Performance optimization is achieved through grid search and Bayesian optimization for hyper-parameter tuning.ResultsOur proposed model outperforms other machine learning models, including k-NN, SVM, DT, RF, AdaBoost, and GNB, in predicting diabetes. The model achieves high average accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and AUC values of 0.9887, 0.9861, 0.9792, 0.9851, and 0.999, respectively.ConclusionOur pipeline-based multi-classification framework demonstrates promising results in accurately predicting diabetes using an imbalanced dataset of Iraqi diabetic patients. The proposed framework addresses the challenges associated with limited labeled data, missing values, and dataset imbalance, leading to improved prediction performance. This study highlights the potential of machine learning techniques in diabetes diagnosis and management, and the proposed framework can serve as a valuable tool for accurate prediction and improved patient care. Further research can build upon our work to refine and optimize the framework and explore its applicability in diverse datasets and populations.

Project description:ObjectiveTo assess the methodological quality of studies on prediction models developed using machine learning techniques across all medical specialties.DesignSystematic review.Data sourcesPubMed from 1 January 2018 to 31 December 2019.Eligibility criteriaArticles reporting on the development, with or without external validation, of a multivariable prediction model (diagnostic or prognostic) developed using supervised machine learning for individualised predictions. No restrictions applied for study design, data source, or predicted patient related health outcomes.Review methodsMethodological quality of the studies was determined and risk of bias evaluated using the prediction risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST). This tool contains 21 signalling questions tailored to identify potential biases in four domains. Risk of bias was measured for each domain (participants, predictors, outcome, and analysis) and each study (overall).Results152 studies were included: 58 (38%) included a diagnostic prediction model and 94 (62%) a prognostic prediction model. PROBAST was applied to 152 developed models and 19 external validations. Of these 171 analyses, 148 (87%, 95% confidence interval 81% to 91%) were rated at high risk of bias. The analysis domain was most frequently rated at high risk of bias. Of the 152 models, 85 (56%, 48% to 64%) were developed with an inadequate number of events per candidate predictor, 62 handled missing data inadequately (41%, 33% to 49%), and 59 assessed overfitting improperly (39%, 31% to 47%). Most models used appropriate data sources to develop (73%, 66% to 79%) and externally validate the machine learning based prediction models (74%, 51% to 88%). Information about blinding of outcome and blinding of predictors was, however, absent in 60 (40%, 32% to 47%) and 79 (52%, 44% to 60%) of the developed models, respectively.ConclusionMost studies on machine learning based prediction models show poor methodological quality and are at high risk of bias. Factors contributing to risk of bias include small study size, poor handling of missing data, and failure to deal with overfitting. Efforts to improve the design, conduct, reporting, and validation of such studies are necessary to boost the application of machine learning based prediction models in clinical practice.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO CRD42019161764.

Dataset Information

Development of Various Diabetes Prediction Models Using Machine Learning Techniques.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Development of Various Diabetes Prediction Models Using Machine Learning Techniques.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets