Project description:The human monkeypox has become a public health problem globally. Google Trends Index (GTI) is an indicator of public attention, being potential for infectious disease outbreak surveillance. In this study, we used lag-correlation analysis to evaluate the spearman correlation coefficients between public attention and monkeypox epidemic by -36 to +36 days-lag in top 20 countries with most cumulated cases until September 30, 2022, the meta-analyses were performed to pool the coefficients of countries among all lags. We also constructed vector autoregression model and Granger-causality test to probe the significance of GTI in monkeypox forecasting. The strongest spearman correlation was found at lag +13 day (r = 0.53, 95% confidence interval: 0.371-0.703, p < 0.05). Meta-analysis showed significantly positive correlation when the lag was from -12 to +36 day, which was most notable on the third posterior day (lag +3 day). The pooled spearman correlation coefficients were all above 0.200 when the lag ranged from +1 to +20 day, and the causality of GTI for daily case was significant in worldwide and multiple countries. The findings suggested a robust association between 13-days-priority GTI and daily cases worldwide. This work introduced a potential monitor indicator on the early warning and surveillance of monkeypox outbreak.
Project description:The biggest-ever outbreak of monkeypox disease in non-endemic countries started in May, 2022. Though no monkeypox case has been reported from India, till mid-June, 2022, yet, considering the rate of spread to the non-endemic countries, there is an urgent need of better understanding of the monkeypox virus and disease epidemiology to help clinicians, public health specialists, and policymakers to be prepared for any eventuality. This review summarises the monkeypox disease epidemiology, clinical features, therapies, vaccines and outlines the measures for preparedness and response for a possible outbreak. The disease is known to cause severe outcome in children, pregnant women, and immunocompromised hosts and this group need to be given special attention. The monkeypox disease outbreak (2022) in non-endemic countries should be used as an opportunity by India and other low and middle income countries to strengthen public health surveillance and health system capacity for outbreak and epidemic preparedness and response.
Project description:Since May 2022, mpox has been identified in 108 countries without endemic disease; most cases have been in gay, bisexual, or other men who have sex with men. To determine number of missed cases, we conducted 2 studies during June-September 2022: a prospective serologic survey detecting orthopoxvirus antibodies among men who have sex with men in San Francisco, California, and a retrospective monkeypox virus PCR testing of swab specimens submitted for other infectious disease testing among all patients across the United States. The serosurvey of 225 participants (median age 34 years) detected 18 (8.0%) who were orthopoxvirus IgG positive and 3 (1.3%) who were also orthopoxvirus IgM positive. The retrospective PCR study of 1,196 patients (median age 30 years; 54.8% male) detected 67 (5.6%) specimens positive for monkeypox virus. There are likely few undiagnosed cases of mpox in regions where sexual healthcare is accessible and patient and clinician awareness about mpox is increased.
Project description:Phylogenetic analysis of monkeypox virus genomes showed statistically significant divergence and nascent subclades during the 2022 mpox outbreak. Frequency of G>A/C>T transitions has increased in recent years, probably resulting from apolipoprotein B mRNA editing enzyme catalytic polypeptide 3G (APOBEC3) deaminase editing. This microevolutionary pattern most likely reflects community spread of the virus and adaptation to humans.