Dataset Information

Development and validation of a risk score for predicting clinical success after endobiliary stenting for malignant biliary obstruction.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Endoscopic drainage is the primary treatment for unresectable malignant biliary obstruction (MBO). This study developed and validated a pre-endoscopic predictive score for clinical success after stent placement.

Methods

Patients with unresectable MBO undergoing ERCP-guided endobiliary stent placement between 2007 and 2017 were randomly divided into derivation (n = 383) and validation (n = 128) cohorts. To develop the risk score, clinical parameters were built by logistic regression to predict (1) ≥ 50% total bilirubin (TB) resolution within 2 weeks and (2) bilirubin normalization (TB level <1.2 mg/dL) within 6 weeks following stenting. The scoring scheme was applied to the validation cohort to test its performance.

Results

A ≥ 50% TB resolution within 2 weeks was shown in 70.5% of cases. The risk scoring scheme had areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.64-0.76) and 0.67 (95% CI, 0.57-0.77) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Thirty-one percent had TB normalization within 6 weeks after stenting. Significant predictors for TB normalization were extrahepatic biliary obstruction (odds ratio [OR] = 2.35), pre-endoscopic TB level (OR = 0.88), and stent type (OR = 0.42). The AUROC of a risk score for predicting TB normalization within 6 weeks was 0.78 (95% CI, 0.72-0.83) and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.67-0.86) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. A score > 1.30 yielded a specificity of 98% and a positive predictive value of 84% for predicting TB normalization. A score of < -4.18 provided a sensitivity of 80%-90% and a negative predictive value of 90%-93% for predicting the absence of TB normalization.

Conclusions

The pre-endoscopic scoring system comprising biliary obstruction level, liver biochemistry, and type of stent provides prediction indices for TB normalization within 6 weeks after stenting. This scheme may help endoscopists identify patients with unresectable MBO suited for palliative stenting.

SUBMITTER: Pausawasdi N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9390920 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Development and validation of a risk score for predicting clinical success after endobiliary stenting for malignant biliary obstruction.

Pausawasdi Nonthalee N Termsinsuk Panotpol P Charatcharoenwitthaya Phunchai P Limsrivilai Julajak J Kaosombatwattana Uayporn U

PloS one 20220819 8

<h4>Background</h4>Endoscopic drainage is the primary treatment for unresectable malignant biliary obstruction (MBO). This study developed and validated a pre-endoscopic predictive score for clinical success after stent placement.<h4>Methods</h4>Patients with unresectable MBO undergoing ERCP-guided endobiliary stent placement between 2007 and 2017 were randomly divided into derivation (n = 383) and validation (n = 128) cohorts. To develop the risk score, clinical parameters were built by logisti ...[more]

PMID: 35984773

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundPalliative endobiliary drainage is the mainstay treatment for unresectable malignant biliary obstruction (MBO). Despite optimal drainage, the survival benefit is arguable. This study aimed to identify factors predicting post-endoscopic drainage mortality and develop and validate a mortality prediction model.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed data for 451 patients with unresectable pancreatobiliary cancers undergoing first endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP)-guided endobiliary stent placement between 2007 and 2017. We randomly assigned patients in a 3:1 fashion into a derivation cohort (n=339) and validation cohort (n=112). Predictors for 90-day mortality post-stenting were identified from the derivation cohort. A prediction model was subsequently developed and verified with the validation cohort.ResultsThe overall 90-day mortality rate of the derivation cohort was 46.9%, and the mean age was 64.2 years. The 2 most common diagnoses were cholangiocarcinoma (53.4%) and pancreatic cancer (35.4%). In all, 34.2% had liver metastasis. The median total bilirubin (TB) level was 19.2 mg/dL, and the mean serum albumin was 3.2 g/dL. A metallic stent was used for 64.6% of the patients, and the median stent patency time was 63 days. A total of 70.8% had TB improvement of more than 50% within 2 weeks after stenting, and 14.5% were eligible for chemotherapy. Intrahepatic obstruction (OR=5.69; P=0.023), stage IV cancer (OR=3.01; P=0.001), pre-endoscopic serum albumin (OR=0.48; P=0.001), TB improvement within 2 weeks after stenting (OR=0.57; P=0.036), and chemotherapy after ERCP (OR=0.11; P<0.001) were associated with 90-day mortality after stenting. The prediction model was developed to identify the risk of death within 90 days post-stent placement. The AUROC was 0.76 and 0.75 in derivation and validation cohorts. Patients with a score ≥ 1.40 had a high likelihood of death, whereas those scoring < -1.50 had a low likelihood of death. Additionally, a score ≥ 0.58 provided a 75.2% probability of death, which highlights the usability of the model.ConclusionsThis study proposes a useful validated prediction model to forecast the 90-day mortality of unresectable MBO patients after stenting. The model permits physicians to stratify the death risk and may be helpful to provide a proper palliative strategy.

Project description:BackgroundPreoperative biliary drainage (PBD) has been widely used to treat patients with malignant biliary obstruction. However, it is still unclear which method of PBD (endoscopic nasobiliary drainage or endoscopic biliary stenting) is more effective. Thus, we carried out a meta-analysis to compare the safety and efficacy of endoscopic nasobiliary drainage (ENBD) and endoscopic biliary stenting (EBS) in malignant biliary obstruction in terms of preoperative and postoperative complications.MethodsWe conducted a literature search of EMBASE databases, PubMed, and the Cochrane Library to identify relevant available articles that were published in English, and we then compared ENBD and EBS in malignant biliary obstruction patients. The preoperative cholangitis rate, the preoperative pancreatitis rate, the incidence of stent dysfunction, the postoperative pancreatic fistula rate, and morbidity were analyzed. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to express the pooled effect on dichotomous variables, and the pooled analyses were performed using RevMan 5.3.ResultsSeven published studies (n = 925 patients) were included in this meta-analysis. We determined that patients with malignant biliary obstruction who received ENBD had reductions in the preoperative cholangitis rate (OR = 0.35, 95% CI = 0.25-0.51, P < 0.0001), the postoperative pancreatic fistula rate (OR = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.18-0.82, P = 0.01), the incidence of stent dysfunction (OR = 0.39, 95% CI = 0.28-0.56, P < 0.0001), and morbidity (OR = 0.47, 95% CI = 0.27-0.82, P = 0.008) compared with patients who received EBS.ConclusionsThe current meta-analysis suggests that ENBD is better than EBS for malignant biliary obstruction in terms of the preoperative cholangitis rate, the postoperative pancreatic fistula rate, the incidence of stent dysfunction, and morbidity. However, a limitation is that there are no data from randomized controlled trials.

Dataset Information

Development and validation of a risk score for predicting clinical success after endobiliary stenting for malignant biliary obstruction.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Development and validation of a risk score for predicting clinical success after endobiliary stenting for malignant biliary obstruction.

Similar Datasets

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