The Economic and Long-Term Health Consequences of Canadian COVID-19 Lockdowns.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Bryan KA
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9395153 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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The Economic and Long-Term Health Consequences of Canadian COVID-19 Lockdowns.
Bryan Kevin A KA Buajitti Emmalin E Rosella Laura C LC Goel Vivek V
Canadian public policy. Analyse de politiques 20210601 2
To prevent exponential spread of COVID-19, many governments restricted economic activity through lockdowns. We model these restrictions as shocks to productivity by sector and trace total equilibrium effects across the economy using techniques from production network economics. We combine this economic model with an epidemiological model of income shocks to long-term health. On both long-run health and economic grounds, it is better to keep upstream sectors such as transportation, manufacturing, ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundExposure to poor air quality leads to increased premature mortality from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Among the far-reaching implications of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, a substantial improvement in air quality was observed worldwide after the lockdowns imposed by many countries. We aimed to assess the implications of different lockdown measures on air pollution levels in Europe and China, as well as the short-term and long-term health impact.MethodsFor this modelling study, observations of fine particulate matter (PM2·5) concentrations from more than 2500 stations in Europe and China during 2016-20 were integrated with chemical transport model simulations to reconstruct PM2·5 fields at high spatiotemporal resolution. The health benefits, expressed as short-term and long-term avoided mortality from PM2·5 exposure associated with the interventions imposed to control the COVID-19 pandemic, were quantified on the basis of the latest epidemiological studies. To explore the long-term variability in air quality and associated premature mortality, we built different scenarios of economic recovery (immediate or gradual resumption of activities, a second outbreak in autumn, and permanent lockdown for the whole of 2020).FindingsThe lockdown interventions led to a reduction in population-weighted PM2·5 of 14·5 μg m-3 across China (-29·7%) and 2·2 μg m-3 across Europe (-17·1%), with unprecedented reductions of 40 μg m-3 in bimonthly mean PM2·5 in the areas most affected by COVID-19 in China. In the short term, an estimated 24 200 (95% CI 22 380-26 010) premature deaths were averted throughout China between Feb 1 and March 31, and an estimated 2190 (1960-2420) deaths were averted in Europe between Feb 21 and May 17. We also estimated a positive number of long-term avoided premature fatalities due to reduced PM2·5 concentrations, ranging from 76 400 (95% CI 62 600-86 900) to 287 000 (233 700-328 300) for China, and from 13 600 (11 900-15 300) to 29 500 (25 800-33 300) for Europe, depending on the future scenarios of economic recovery adopted.InterpretationThese results indicate that lockdown interventions led to substantial reductions in PM2·5 concentrations in China and Europe. We estimated that tens of thousands of premature deaths from air pollution were avoided, although with significant differences observed in Europe and China. Our findings suggest that considerable improvements in air quality are achievable in both China and Europe when stringent emission control policies are adopted.FundingNone.
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Project description:The mechanisms of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19)-related myocardial injury comprise both direct viral invasion and indirect (hypercoagulability and immune-mediated) cellular injuries. Some patients with COVID-19 cardiac involvement have poor clinical outcomes, with preliminary data suggesting long-term structural and functional changes. These include persistent myocardial fibrosis, edema, and intraventricular thrombi with embolic events, while functionally, the left ventricle is enlarged, with a reduced ejection fraction and new-onset arrhythmias reported in a number of patients. Myocarditis post-COVID-19 vaccination is rare but more common among young male patients. Larger studies, including prospective data from biobanks, will be useful in expanding these early findings and determining their validity.
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Project description:Many people who have survived COVID-19 have experienced negative persistent impacts on health. Impacts on health have included persistent respiratory symptoms, decreased quality of life, fatigue, impaired functional capacity, memory deficits, psychological impacts, and difficulties in returning to paid employment. Evidence is yet to be pooled to inform future directions in research and practice, to determine the physical, psychological, social, and spiritual impacts of the illness which extend beyond the acute phase of COVID-19 survivors. This umbrella review (review of systematic reviews) critically synthesized physical (including abnormal laboratory parameters), psychological, social, and spiritual impacts which extended beyond the acute phase of COVID-19 survivors. The search strategy was based on the sample, phenomena of interest, design, evaluation, research model and all publications were double screened independently by four review authors for the eligibility criteria. Data extraction and quality assessment were conducted in parallel independently. Eighteen systematic reviews were included, which represented a total of 493 publications. Sample sizes ranged from n = 15 to n = 44 799 with a total of n = 295 455 participants. There was incomplete reporting of several significant data points including the description of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variant, COVID-19 treatments, and key clinical and demographic data. A number of physical, psychological, and social impacts were identified for individuals grappling with post-COVID condition. The long term sequalae of acute COVID-19 and size of the problem is only beginning to emerge. Further investigation is needed to ensure that those affected by post-COVID condition have their informational, spiritual, psychological, social, and physical needs met in the future.
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