Dataset Information

The Temporal and Spatial Epidemiology Employed in the Elimination of the HIV Epidemic in the Largest Capital of the Brazilian Rainforest.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The main goal of this study was to analyze the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic temporally and spatially in Belém from 2007 to 2018.

Methods

The incidence rates were analyzed according to time using autoregressive integrated moving-average models, as well as spatially using spatial autocorrelation, Kernel density, scan statistics, and regression techniques.

Results

During the study period, 6007 notifications of new cases of HIV/AIDS were reported. The time series analysis revealed a stabilized trend of incidence from 2007 to October 2016, followed by irregular fluctuations until the end of December 2018. Seasonal behavior was observed from 2019 to 2022. The high-high incidence clusters were found in the central and transition areas. An expansion of the number of new reported cases was observed in the central area. Three spatial risk zones were observed. The higher relative risk zone was concentrated in the transition area. The spatial regression showed that the incidence rates were positively correlated with the Family Health Strategy (FHS) coverage.

Conclusions

To eliminate HIV in Belém, it will be necessary to decentralize testing and ART and expand the coverage of FHS to ensure universal access to healthcare for citizens.

SUBMITTER: Dias BRL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9505481 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

The Temporal and Spatial Epidemiology Employed in the Elimination of the HIV Epidemic in the Largest Capital of the Brazilian Rainforest.

Dias Bruna Rafaela Leite BRL Rodrigues Taymara Barbosa TB Gomes Dulce D Arcêncio Ricardo Alexandre RA Gir Elucir E Ferreira Glenda Roberta Oliveira Naiff GRON Polaro Sandra Helena Isse SHI Botelho Eliã Pinheiro EP

Tropical medicine and infectious disease 20220902 9

<h4>Background</h4>The main goal of this study was to analyze the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic temporally and spatially in Belém from 2007 to 2018.<h4>Methods</h4>The incidence rates were analyzed according to time using autoregressive integrated moving-average models, as well as spatially using spatial autocorrelation, Kernel density, scan statistics, and regression techniques.<h4>Results</h4>During the study period, 6007 notifications of new cases of HIV/AIDS were reported. The ...[more]

PMID: 36136636

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Project description:Syphilis is a Sexually Transmitted Infection (IST) with significant importance to public health, due to its impact during pregnancy (Gestational Syphilis-GS); especially because syphilis can affect fetus and neonates' development (mother-to-child transmission-MTCT of syphilis), by increasing susceptibility to abortion, premature birth, skeletal malformations, meningitis and pneumonia. Measures to control and eliminate MTCT of syphilis have failed on the last few years in Brazil and this research aimed to identify the seasonality of notified cases of syphilis in a region of São Paulo state. The studied region, Pontal do Paranapanema, comprises 32 cities located in the West of São Paulo state, in Brazil. Data collected from the National System of Aggravations and Notification (SINAN) website was used to calculate the incidence rate of GS and MTCT. The incidence rate of GS was acquired dividing number of cases by number of women in each municipality and MTCT using number of live births in each year (from 2007 to 2013) in each municipality. This result was then, standardized multiplying incidence rate by 10,000 and expressed as incidence/10,000 women or live births, for GS and MTCT, respectively. To identify possible endemic/epidemic periods, a control diagram was performed using the standard deviation (SD) of incidence rate. Thematic maps representing the spatial distribution of incidence rates were constructed using a Geographic Information System software (GIS, based on cartographic vector available on the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) website. Eighty cases of GS and 61 cases of MTCT were notified in the studied region. An increase of GS notification was detected in the Pontal do Paranapanema in 2011 followed by an increase in number of MTCT cases in the subsequent year, suggesting inefficacy in the treatment during gestational period. Most of those cases were reported on February and November which suggested seasonality for this IST in the region. The control diagram, based on the inputs collected from SINAN, showed no endemic period; however, the most susceptible month to happen an endemic event of GS and MTCT was February. Our study provided a new methodology to understand the syphilis dynamics as a potential tool to improve the success of future measures to control and possibly eliminate MTCT of syphilis.

Project description:BackgroundColombia has the fourth highest incidence rate of HIV/AIDS among all Latin American countries and it has been increasing since the 1980s. However, the number of studies that addresses this trend is limited. Here, we employed spatial and temporal trend analyses to study the behaviour of the epidemic in the Colombian territory.MethodsOur sample included 72,994 cases of HIV/AIDS and 21,898 AIDS-related deaths reported to the National Ministry of Health between 2008 and 2016. We employed the joinpoint regression model to analyse the annual HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDS mortality rates. In the spatial analysis, we used univariate autocorrelation techniques and the Kernel density estimator.ResultsWhile the HIV/AIDS incidence had an increasing trend in Colombia, the AIDS mortality rate was stable. HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDS mortality showed a downward trend in the 0-14 age group. An upward trend was observed for HIV/AIDS incidence in people older than 15 years and with the highest trend in the 65 years and above group. AIDS mortality showed an increasing trend among people aged 65 years or older. The comparison between the sexes showed an upward trend of HIV/AIDS incidence in all age groups and AIDS-mortality rates in 65 years and above in men, while in women, the incidence was upward among those aged 45 years and above, and concerning the AIDS-mortality rate in the 45-64 group. The high-high clusters of HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDS mortality were located in the Andean and Caribbean regions.ConclusionOur study found an upward trend in HIV/AIDS incidence and a stable trend in the AIDS mortality rate in Colombia. The downward trend in HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDS mortality rate in the 0-14 age group reflects the downwards mother-to-child HIV transmission. The upward trend in HIV/AIDS incidence in older women and AIDS mortality in younger women rates, compared with men, may be due to late diagnosis and treatment. The Caribbean and the 'coffee belt' regions were the most impacted by the HIV epidemic, most likely due to sexual tourism. Our results provide crucial information that may help Colombian health authorities fight HIV transmission.

Dataset Information

The Temporal and Spatial Epidemiology Employed in the Elimination of the HIV Epidemic in the Largest Capital of the Brazilian Rainforest.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

The Temporal and Spatial Epidemiology Employed in the Elimination of the HIV Epidemic in the Largest Capital of the Brazilian Rainforest.

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