Dataset Information

Identification of mild cognitive impairment subtypes predicting conversion to Alzheimer's disease using multimodal data.

ABSTRACT: Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is a high-risk condition for conversion to Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia. However, individuals with MCI show heterogeneous patterns of pathology and conversion to AD dementia. Thus, detailed subtyping of MCI subjects and accurate prediction of the patients in whom MCI will convert to AD dementia is critical for identifying at-risk populations and the underlying biological features. To this end, we developed a model that simultaneously subtypes MCI subjects and predicts conversion to AD and performed an analysis of the underlying biological characteristics of each subtype. In particular, a heterogeneous mixture learning (HML) method was used to build a decision tree-based model based on multimodal data, including cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker data, structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data, APOE genotype data, and age at examination. The HML model showed an average F1 score of 0.721, which was comparable to the random forest method and had significantly more predictive accuracy than the CART method. The HML-generated decision tree was also used to classify-five subtypes of MCI. Each MCI subtype was characterized in terms of the degree of abnormality in CSF biomarkers, brain atrophy, and cognitive decline. The five subtypes of MCI were further categorized into three groups: one subtype with low conversion rates (similar to cognitively normal subjects); three subtypes with moderate conversion rates; and one subtype with high conversion rates (similar to AD dementia patients). The subtypes with moderate conversion rates were subsequently separated into a group with CSF biomarker abnormalities and a group with brain atrophy. The subtypes identified in this study exhibited varying MCI-to-AD conversion rates and differing biological profiles.

SUBMITTER: Kikuchi M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9513733 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Identification of mild cognitive impairment subtypes predicting conversion to Alzheimer's disease using multimodal data.

Kikuchi Masataka M Kobayashi Kaori K Itoh Sakiko S Kasuga Kensaku K Miyashita Akinori A Ikeuchi Takeshi T Yumoto Eiji E Kosaka Yuki Y Fushimi Yasuto Y Takeda Toshihiro T Manabe Shirou S Hattori Satoshi S Nakaya Akihiro A Kamijo Kenichi K Matsumura Yasushi Y

Computational and structural biotechnology journal 20220822

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is a high-risk condition for conversion to Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia. However, individuals with MCI show heterogeneous patterns of pathology and conversion to AD dementia. Thus, detailed subtyping of MCI subjects and accurate prediction of the patients in whom MCI will convert to AD dementia is critical for identifying at-risk populations and the underlying biological features. To this end, we developed a model that simultaneously subtypes MCI subjects and ...[more]

PMID: 36212530

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Project description:Successively predicting whether mild cognitive impairment patients will progress to Alzheimer's disease is of significant clinical relevance. This ability may provide information that can be leveraged by emerging intervention approaches and thus mitigate some of the negative effects of the disease. Neuroimaging biomarkers have gained some attention in recent years and may be useful in predicting the conversion of mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease. We implemented a novel multi-modal approach that allowed us to evaluate the potential of different imaging modalities, both alone and in different degrees of combinations, in predicting the conversion to Alzheimer's disease of mild cognitive impairment patients. We applied this approach to the imaging data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative that is a multi-modal imaging dataset comprised of MRI, Fluorodeoxyglucose PET, Florbetapir PET and diffusion tensor imaging. We included a total of 480 mild cognitive impairment patients that were split into two groups: converted and stable. Imaging data were segmented into atlas-based regions of interest, from which relevant features were extracted for the different imaging modalities and used to construct machine-learning models to classify mild cognitive impairment patients into converted or stable, using each of the different imaging modalities independently. The models were then combined, using a simple weight fusion ensemble strategy, to evaluate the complementarity of different imaging modalities and their contribution to the prediction accuracy of the models. The single-modality findings revealed that the model, utilizing features extracted from Florbetapir PET, demonstrated the highest performance with a balanced accuracy of 83.51%. Concerning multi-modality models, not all combinations enhanced mild cognitive impairment conversion prediction. Notably, the combination of MRI with Fluorodeoxyglucose PET emerged as the most promising, exhibiting an overall improvement in predictive capabilities, achieving a balanced accuracy of 78.43%. This indicates synergy and complementarity between the two imaging modalities in predicting mild cognitive impairment conversion. These findings suggest that β-amyloid accumulation provides robust predictive capabilities, while the combination of multiple imaging modalities has the potential to surpass certain single-modality approaches. Exploring modality-specific biomarkers, we identified the brainstem as a sensitive biomarker for both MRI and Fluorodeoxyglucose PET modalities, implicating its involvement in early Alzheimer's pathology. Notably, the corpus callosum and adjacent cortical regions emerged as potential biomarkers, warranting further study into their role in the early stages of Alzheimer's disease.

Project description:Accurately identifying the patients that have mild cognitive impairment (MCI) who will go on to develop Alzheimer's disease (AD) will become essential as new treatments will require identification of AD patients at earlier stages in the disease process. Most previous work in this area has centred around the same automated techniques used to diagnose AD patients from healthy controls, by coupling high dimensional brain image data or other relevant biomarker data to modern machine learning techniques. Such studies can now distinguish between AD patients and controls as accurately as an experienced clinician. Models trained on patients with AD and control subjects can also distinguish between MCI patients that will convert to AD within a given timeframe (MCI-c) and those that remain stable (MCI-s), although differences between these groups are smaller and thus, the corresponding accuracy is lower. The most common type of classifier used in these studies is the support vector machine, which gives categorical class decisions. In this paper, we introduce Gaussian process (GP) classification to the problem. This fully Bayesian method produces naturally probabilistic predictions, which we show correlate well with the actual chances of converting to AD within 3 years in a population of 96 MCI-s and 47 MCI-c subjects. Furthermore, we show that GPs can integrate multimodal data (in this study volumetric MRI, FDG-PET, cerebrospinal fluid, and APOE genotype with the classification process through the use of a mixed kernel). The GP approach aids combination of different data sources by learning parameters automatically from training data via type-II maximum likelihood, which we compare to a more conventional method based on cross validation and an SVM classifier. When the resulting probabilities from the GP are dichotomised to produce a binary classification, the results for predicting MCI conversion based on the combination of all three types of data show a balanced accuracy of 74%. This is a substantially higher accuracy than could be obtained using any individual modality or using a multikernel SVM, and is competitive with the highest accuracy yet achieved for predicting conversion within three years on the widely used ADNI dataset.

Project description:The increasing burden of Alzheimer's disease (AD) emphasizes the need for effective diagnostic and therapeutic strategies. Despite available treatments targeting amyloid beta (Aβ) plaques, disease-modifying therapies remain elusive. Early detection of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) patients at risk for AD conversion is crucial, especially with anti-Aβ therapy. While plasma biomarkers hold promise in differentiating AD from MCI, evidence on predicting cognitive decline is lacking. This study's objectives were to evaluate whether plasma protein biomarkers could predict both cognitive decline in non-demented individuals and the conversion to AD in patients with MCI. This study was conducted as part of the Korean Longitudinal Study on Cognitive Aging and Dementia (KLOSCAD), a prospective, community-based cohort. Participants were based on plasma biomarker availability and clinical diagnosis at baseline. The study included MCI (n = 50), MCI-to-AD (n = 21), and cognitively unimpaired (CU, n = 40) participants. Baseline plasma concentrations of six proteins-total tau (tTau), phosphorylated tau at residue 181 (pTau181), amyloid beta 42 (Aβ42), amyloid beta 40 (Aβ40), neurofilament light chain (NFL), and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP)-along with three derivative ratios (pTau181/tTau, Aβ42/Aβ40, pTau181/Aβ42) were analyzed to predict cognitive decline over a six-year follow-up period. Baseline protein biomarkers were stratified into tertiles (low, intermediate, and high) and analyzed using a linear mixed model (LMM) to predict longitudinal cognitive changes. In addition, Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to discern whether protein biomarkers could predict AD conversion in the MCI subgroup. This prospective cohort study revealed that plasma NFL may predict longitudinal declines in Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores. In participants categorized as amyloid positive, the NFL biomarker demonstrated predictive performance for both MMSE and total scores of the Korean version of the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Packet (CERAD-TS) longitudinally. Additionally, as a baseline predictor, GFAP exhibited a significant association with cross-sectional cognitive impairment in the CERAD-TS measure, particularly in amyloid positive participants. Kaplan-Meier curve analysis indicated predictive performance of NFL, GFAP, tTau, and Aβ42/Aβ40 on MCI-to-AD conversion. This study suggests that plasma GFAP in non-demented participants may reflect baseline cross-sectional CERAD-TS scores, a measure of global cognitive function. Conversely, plasma NFL may predict longitudinal decline in MMSE and CERAD-TS scores in participants categorized as amyloid positive. Kaplan-Meier curve analysis suggests that NFL, GFAP, tTau, and Aβ42/Aβ40 are potentially robust predictors of future AD conversion.

Project description:Effective and accurate diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD), as well as its prodromal stage (i.e., mild cognitive impairment (MCI)), has attracted more and more attention recently. So far, multiple biomarkers have been shown to be sensitive to the diagnosis of AD and MCI, i.e., structural MR imaging (MRI) for brain atrophy measurement, functional imaging (e.g., FDG-PET) for hypometabolism quantification, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) for quantification of specific proteins. However, most existing research focuses on only a single modality of biomarkers for diagnosis of AD and MCI, although recent studies have shown that different biomarkers may provide complementary information for the diagnosis of AD and MCI. In this paper, we propose to combine three modalities of biomarkers, i.e., MRI, FDG-PET, and CSF biomarkers, to discriminate between AD (or MCI) and healthy controls, using a kernel combination method. Specifically, ADNI baseline MRI, FDG-PET, and CSF data from 51AD patients, 99 MCI patients (including 43 MCI converters who had converted to AD within 18 months and 56 MCI non-converters who had not converted to AD within 18 months), and 52 healthy controls are used for development and validation of our proposed multimodal classification method. In particular, for each MR or FDG-PET image, 93 volumetric features are extracted from the 93 regions of interest (ROIs), automatically labeled by an atlas warping algorithm. For CSF biomarkers, their original values are directly used as features. Then, a linear support vector machine (SVM) is adopted to evaluate the classification accuracy, using a 10-fold cross-validation. As a result, for classifying AD from healthy controls, we achieve a classification accuracy of 93.2% (with a sensitivity of 93% and a specificity of 93.3%) when combining all three modalities of biomarkers, and only 86.5% when using even the best individual modality of biomarkers. Similarly, for classifying MCI from healthy controls, we achieve a classification accuracy of 76.4% (with a sensitivity of 81.8% and a specificity of 66%) for our combined method, and only 72% even using the best individual modality of biomarkers. Further analysis on MCI sensitivity of our combined method indicates that 91.5% of MCI converters and 73.4% of MCI non-converters are correctly classified. Moreover, we also evaluate the classification performance when employing a feature selection method to select the most discriminative MR and FDG-PET features. Again, our combined method shows considerably better performance, compared to the case of using an individual modality of biomarkers.

Project description:Random Survival Forests (RSF) has recently showed better performance than statistical survival methods as Cox proportional hazard (CPH) in predicting conversion risk from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, RSF application in real-world clinical setting is still limited due to its black-box nature.For this reason, we aimed at providing a comprehensive study of RSF explainability with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) on biomarkers of stable and progressive patients (sMCI and pMCI) from Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. We evaluated three global explanations-RSF feature importance, permutation importance and SHAP importance-and we quantitatively compared them with Rank-Biased Overlap (RBO). Moreover, we assessed whether multicollinearity among variables may perturb SHAP outcome. Lastly, we stratified pMCI test patients in high, medium and low risk grade, to investigate individual SHAP explanation of one pMCI patient per risk group.We confirmed that RSF had higher accuracy (0.890) than CPH (0.819), and its stability and robustness was demonstrated by high overlap (RBO > 90%) between feature rankings within first eight features. SHAP local explanations with and without correlated variables had no substantial difference, showing that multicollinearity did not alter the model. FDG, ABETA42 and HCI were the first important features in global explanations, with the highest contribution also in local explanation. FAQ, mPACCdigit, mPACCtrailsB and RAVLT immediate had the highest influence among all clinical and neuropsychological assessments in increasing progression risk, as particularly evident in pMCI patients' individual explanation. In conclusion, our findings suggest that RSF represents a useful tool to support clinicians in estimating conversion-to-AD risk and that SHAP explainer boosts its clinical utility with intelligible and interpretable individual outcomes that highlights key features associated with AD prognosis.

Dataset Information

Identification of mild cognitive impairment subtypes predicting conversion to Alzheimer's disease using multimodal data.

Publications

Identification of mild cognitive impairment subtypes predicting conversion to Alzheimer's disease using multimodal data.

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