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Quasi-experimental analysis of new mining developments as a driver of deforestation in Zambia.

ABSTRACT: Mining is a vital part of the global, and many national, economies. Mining also has the potential to drive extensive land cover change, including deforestation, with impacts reaching far from the mine itself. Understanding the amount of deforestation associated with mining is important for conservationists, governments, mining companies, and consumers, yet accurate quantification is rare. We applied statistical matching, a quasi-experimental methodology, along with Bayesian hierarchical generalized linear models to assess the impact on deforestation of new mining developments in Zambia from 2000 to present. Zambia is a globally significant producer of minerals and mining contributes ~ 10% of its gross domestic product and ~ 77% of its exports. Despite extensive deforestation in mining impacted land, we found no evidence that any of the 22 mines we analysed increased deforestation compared with matched control sites. The extent forest lost was therefore no different than would likely have happened without the mines being present due to other drivers of deforestation in Zambia. This suggests previous assessments based on correlative methodologies may overestimate the deforestation impact of mining. However, mining can have a range of impacts on society, biodiversity, and the local environment that are not captured by our analysis.

SUBMITTER: Morley J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9617878 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Quasi-experimental analysis of new mining developments as a driver of deforestation in Zambia.

Morley Jonathan J Buchanan Graeme G Mitchard Edward T A ETA Keane Aidan A

Scientific reports 20221029 1

Mining is a vital part of the global, and many national, economies. Mining also has the potential to drive extensive land cover change, including deforestation, with impacts reaching far from the mine itself. Understanding the amount of deforestation associated with mining is important for conservationists, governments, mining companies, and consumers, yet accurate quantification is rare. We applied statistical matching, a quasi-experimental methodology, along with Bayesian hierarchical generali ...[more]

PMID: 36309592

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Project description:BackgroundThe magnitude of the benefit associated with screening has been debated. We present a meta-analysis of quasi-experimental studies on the effects of mammography screening.MethodsWe searched MEDLINE/PubMed and Embase for articles published through January 31, 2013. Studies were included if they reported: 1) a population-wide breast cancer screening program using mammography with 5+ years of data post-implementation; 2) a comparison group with equal access to therapies; and 3) breast cancer mortality. Studies excluded were: RCTs, case-control, or simulation studies. We defined quasi-experimental as studies that compared either geographical, historical or birth cohorts with a screening program to an equivalent cohort without a screening program. Meta-analyses were conducted in Stata using the metan command, random effects. Meta-analyses were conducted separately for ages screened: under 50, 50 to 69 and over 70 and weighted by population and person-years.ResultsAmong 4,903 published papers that were retrieved, 19 studies matched eligibility criteria. Birth cohort studies reported a significant benefit for women screened <age 50, but not for women screened ages 50-69. Significant reductions in breast cancer mortality were observed in historical comparisons. For geographical comparisons, there was a significant 20% reduction in mortality for women <age 50 and a significant 21-22% reduction for women ages 50-69. Studies that tested the interaction of geographical and historical comparisons produced a pooled, significant 13-17% reduction in incident breast cancer mortality for women ages 50-69, but the effects in most individual studies were non-significant. All studies of women ages 70+ were non-significant.ConclusionsMammography screening may have modest effects on cancer mortality between the ages of 50 and 69 and non-significant effects for women older than age 70. Results are consistent with meta-analyses of RCTs. Effects on total mortality could not be assessed because of the limited number of studies.

Project description:BackgroundSkilled attendance at delivery is a key marker for reducing maternal mortality. Effective community engagement strategies complemented by community health worker (CHW) services can improve access to maternal health services in areas with limited health infrastructure or workforce.MethodsA quasi-experimental study with matched comparison groups was conducted in Cambodia, Kenya and Zambia to determine the effect of integrated community investments on skilled birth attendance (SBA). In each country, communities in two districts/sub-districts received a package of community-oriented interventions comprised of timed CHW household health promotion for maternal, newborn and child health complemented by social accountability mechanisms using community scorecards. Two matched comparison districts/sub-districts received ongoing routine interventions. Data from the final evaluation were examined to determine the effect of timed CHW services and community-oriented interventions on SBA.ResultsOver 80% of the 3037 women in Cambodia, 2805 women in Kenya and 1171 women in Zambia reported SBA. Women in intervention sites who received timely CHW health promotion and social accountability mechanisms in Cambodia showed significantly higher odds of SBA (aOR = 7.48; 95% CI: 3.87, 14.5). The findings also indicated that women over the age of 24 in Cambodia, women with primary or secondary education in Cambodia and secondary education in Kenya, women from higher wealth quintiles in Cambodia, and women with four or more antenatal care (ANC) visits in all countries reported significantly higher odds of SBA. Inclusion of family members in pregnancy-related discussions in Kenya (aOR = 2.12; 95% CI: 1.06, 4.26) and Zambia (aOR = 6.78; 95% CI: 1.15, 13.9) and follow up CHW visits after a referral or health facility visit (aOR = 2.44; 95% CI: 1.30, 4.60 in Cambodia; aOR = 2.17; 95% CI 1.25, 3.75 in Kenya; aOR = 1.89; 95% CI: 1.05, 2.02 in Zambia) also showed significantly greater odds of SBA.ConclusionsEnhancing people-centered care through culturally appropriate community-oriented strategies integrating timely CHW health promotion and social accountability mechanisms shows some evidence for improving SBA during delivery. These strategies can accelerate the achievement of the sustainable development goals for maternal child and newborn health.

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Quasi-experimental analysis of new mining developments as a driver of deforestation in Zambia.

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Quasi-experimental analysis of new mining developments as a driver of deforestation in Zambia.

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