Dataset Information

Estimating the effect of the wMel release programme on the incidence of dengue and chikungunya in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: a spatiotemporal modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Introgression of genetic material from species of the insect bacteria Wolbachia into populations of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes has been shown in randomised and non-randomised trials to reduce the incidence of dengue; however, evidence for the real-world effectiveness of large-scale deployments of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes for arboviral disease control in endemic settings is still scarce. A large Wolbachia (wMel strain) release programme was implemented in 2017 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We aimed to assess the effect of this programme on the incidence of dengue and chikungunya in the city.

Methods

67 million wMel-infected mosquitoes were released across 28 489 locations over an area of 86·8 km² in Rio de Janeiro between Aug 29, 2017 and Dec 27, 2019. Following releases, mosquitoes were trapped and the presence of wMel was recorded. In this spatiotemporal modelling study, we assessed the effect of the release programme on the incidence of dengue and chikungunya. We used spatiotemporally explicit mathematical models applied to geocoded dengue cases (N=283 270) from 2010 to 2019 and chikungunya cases (N=57 705) from 2016 to 2019.

Findings

On average, 32% of mosquitoes collected from the release zones between 1 month and 29 months after the initial release tested positive for wMel. Reduced wMel introgression occurred in locations and seasonal periods in which cases of dengue and chikungunya were historically high, with a decrease to 25% of mosquitoes testing positive for wMel during months in which disease incidence was at its highest. Despite incomplete introgression, we found that the releases were associated with a 38% (95% CI 32-44) reduction in the incidence of dengue and a 10% (4-16) reduction in the incidence of chikungunya.

Interpretation

Stable establishment of wMel in the geographically diverse, urban setting of Rio de Janeiro seems to be more complicated than has been observed elsewhere. However, even intermediate levels of wMel seem to reduce the incidence of disease caused by two arboviruses. These findings will help to guide future release programmes.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the European Research Council.

SUBMITTER: Ribeiro Dos Santos G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9630156 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Estimating the effect of the wMel release programme on the incidence of dengue and chikungunya in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: a spatiotemporal modelling study.

Ribeiro Dos Santos Gabriel G Durovni Betina B Saraceni Valeria V Souza Riback Thais Irene TI Pinto Sofia B SB Anders Katherine L KL Moreira Luciano A LA Salje Henrik H

The Lancet. Infectious diseases 20220928 11

<h4>Background</h4>Introgression of genetic material from species of the insect bacteria Wolbachia into populations of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes has been shown in randomised and non-randomised trials to reduce the incidence of dengue; however, evidence for the real-world effectiveness of large-scale deployments of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes for arboviral disease control in endemic settings is still scarce. A large Wolbachia (wMel strain) release programme was implemented in 2017 in Rio de Jane ...[more]

PMID: 36182679

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundRio de Janeiro, Brazil, experienced a severe dengue fever epidemic in 2008. This was the worst epidemic ever, characterized by a sharp increase in case-fatality rate, mainly among younger individuals. A combination of factors, such as climate, mosquito abundance, buildup of the susceptible population, or viral evolution, could explain the severity of this epidemic. The main objective of this study is to model the spatial patterns of dengue seroprevalence in three neighborhoods with different socioeconomic profiles in Rio de Janeiro. As blood sampling coincided with the peak of dengue transmission, we were also able to identify recent dengue infections and visually relate them to Aedes aegypti spatial distribution abundance. We analyzed individual and spatial factors associated with seroprevalence using Generalized Additive Model (GAM).Methodology/principal findingsThree neighborhoods were investigated: a central urban neighborhood, and two isolated areas characterized as a slum and a suburban area. Weekly mosquito collections started in September 2006 and continued until March 2008. In each study area, 40 adult traps and 40 egg traps were installed in a random sample of premises, and two infestation indexes calculated: mean adult density and mean egg density. Sera from individuals living in the three neighborhoods were collected before the 2008 epidemic (July through November 2007) and during the epidemic (February through April 2008). Sera were tested for DENV-reactive IgM, IgG, Nested RT-PCR, and Real Time RT-PCR. From the before-after epidemics paired data, we described seroprevalence, recent dengue infections (asymptomatic or not), and seroconversion. Recent dengue infection varied from 1.3% to 14.1% among study areas. The highest IgM seropositivity occurred in the slum, where mosquito abundance was the lowest, but household conditions were the best for promoting contact between hosts and vectors. By fitting spatial GAM we found dengue seroprevalence hotspots located at the entrances of the two isolated communities, which are commercial activity areas with high human movement. No association between recent dengue infection and household's high mosquito abundance was observed in this sample.Conclusions/significanceThis study contributes to better understanding the dynamics of dengue in Rio de Janeiro by assessing the relationship between dengue seroprevalence, recent dengue infection, and vector density. In conclusion, the variation in spatial seroprevalence patterns inside the neighborhoods, with significantly higher risk patches close to the areas with large human movement, suggests that humans may be responsible for virus inflow to small neighborhoods in Rio de Janeiro. Surveillance guidelines should be further discussed, considering these findings, particularly the spatial patterns for both human and mosquito populations.

Project description:Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is an arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus) transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. The human infection usually manifests as a febrile and incapacitating arthritogenic illness, self-limiting and non-lethal. However, since 2013, CHIKV spreading through the tropics and to the Americas was accompanied by an increasing number of cases of atypical disease presentation, namely severe neuropathies and neonatal infection due to intrapartum vertical transmission. The pathophysiological mechanisms underlying these conditions have not been fully elucidated. However, arbovirus intrahost genetic diversity is thought to be linked to viral pathogenesis. To determine whether particular viral variants could be somehow associated, we analyzed the intrahost genetic diversity of CHIKV in three infected patients with neurological manifestations and three mothers infected during the intrapartum period, as well as their babies following vertical transmission. No statistically supported differences were observed for the genetic variability (nucleotide substitutions/gene length) along the genome between the groups. However, the newborn and cerebrospinal fluid samples (corresponding to virus passed through the placenta and/or the blood-brain barrier (BBB)) presented a different composition of their intrahost mutant ensembles compared to maternal or patient serum samples, even when concurrent. This finding could be consistent with the unidirectional virus transmission through these barriers, and the effect of selective bottlenecks during the transmission event. In addition, a higher proportion of defective variants (insertions/deletions and stop codons) was detected in the CSF and maternal samples and those were mainly distributed within the viral non-structural genes. Since defective viral genomes in RNA viruses are known to contribute to the outcome of acute viral infections and influence disease severity, their role in these atypical cases should be further investigated. Finally, with the in silico approach adopted, we detected no relevant non-conservative mutational pattern that could provide any hint of the pathophysiological mechanisms underlying these atypical cases. The present analysis represents a unique contribution to our understanding of the transmission events in these cases and generates hypotheses regarding underlying mechanisms, that can be explored further.

Dataset Information

Estimating the effect of the wMel release programme on the incidence of dengue and chikungunya in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: a spatiotemporal modelling study.

Background

Methods

Findings

Interpretation

Funding

Publications

Estimating the effect of the wMel release programme on the incidence of dengue and chikungunya in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: a spatiotemporal modelling study.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets