Uncertainty and error in SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological parameters inferred from population-level epidemic models.

ABSTRACT: During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, epidemic models have been central to policy-making. Public health responses have been shaped by model-based projections and inferences, especially related to the impact of various non-pharmaceutical interventions. Accompanying this has been increased scrutiny over model performance, model assumptions, and the way that uncertainty is incorporated and presented. Here we consider a population-level model, focusing on how distributions representing host infectiousness and the infection-to-death times are modelled, and particularly on the impact of inferred epidemic characteristics if these distributions are mis-specified. We introduce an SIR-type model with the infected population structured by 'infected age', i.e. the number of days since first being infected,

SUBMITTER: Whittaker DG 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9637393 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature