The heavy burden of covid-19-related mortality among the elderly in Corsica, 2020-2021
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Gomes T
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9699816 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Nov
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Excess mortality (EM) is a valid indicator of COVID-19's impact on public health. Several studies regarding the estimation of EM have been conducted in Italy, and some of them have shown conflicting values. We focused on three estimation models and compared their results with respect to the same target population, which allowed us to highlight their strengths and limitations. We selected three estimation models: model 1 (Maruotti et al.) is a Negative-Binomial GLMM with seasonal patterns; model 2 (Dorrucci et al.) is a Negative Binomial GLM epidemiological approach; and model 3 (Scortichini et al.) is a quasi-Poisson GLM time-series approach with temperature distributions. We extended the time windows of the original models until December 2021, computing various EM estimates to allow for comparisons. We compared the results with our benchmark, the ISS-ISTAT official estimates. Model 1 was the most consistent, model 2 was almost identical, and model 3 differed from the two. Model 1 was the most stable towards changes in the baseline years, while model 2 had a lower cross-validation RMSE. Presently, an unambiguous explanation of EM in Italy is not possible. We provide a range that we consider sound, given the high variability associated with the use of different models. However, all three models accurately represented the spatiotemporal trends of the pandemic waves in Italy.
| S-EPMC9779266 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The mortality impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine has remained incomplete. We estimated excess deaths associated with the pandemic in Ukraine during 2020 and 2021. Excess deaths may be attributed directly to SARS-CoV-2 infection or indirectly to deaths associated with social and economic upheavals resulting from the pandemic. Data on all deaths registered in government-controlled Ukraine from 2016-2021 (N = 3,657,475) were utilized. Using a model-based approach, we predicted monthly excess deaths in 2020 and 2021. We estimated 47,578 excess deaths in 2020 as a whole (7.71% of all recorded deaths). This figure reflects both positive (higher than expected) excess deaths from June-December and negative (lower than expected) deaths in January and March-May. From June-December 2020, we estimated 59,363 excess deaths (15.75% of all recorded deaths in those months). In 2021, we estimated 150,049 excess deaths (21.01% of all recorded deaths). Positive excess deaths were detected across age groups even groups younger than 40 years. The number of excess deaths exceeded that of deaths with COVID-19 coded on the death certificate by more than two-fold in 2020, but that difference narrowed in 2021. We furthermore provide provisional estimates of the effect of low vaccine coverage on excess deaths in 2021 drawing from European cross-national evidence and provisional estimates of the hypothetical evolution of the pandemic in 2022 to serve as a rough basis for future studies analyzing the joint impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion on Ukrainian demography.
| S-EPMC10198475 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundBurden of disease estimates have become important population health metrics over the past decade to measure losses in health. In Belgium, the disease burden caused by COVID-19 has not yet been estimated, although COVID-19 has emerged as one of the most important diseases. Therefore, the current study aims to estimate the direct COVID-19 burden in Belgium, observed despite policy interventions, during 2020 and 2021, and compare it to the burden from other causes.MethodsDisability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are the sum of Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) and Years of Life Lost (YLLs) due to disease. DALYs allow comparing the burden of disease between countries, diseases, and over time. We used the European Burden of Disease Network consensus disease model for COVID-19 to estimate DALYs related to COVID-19. Estimates of person-years for (a) acute non-fatal disease states were calculated from a compartmental model, using Belgian seroprevalence, social contact, hospital, and intensive care admission data, (b) deaths were sourced from the national COVID-19 mortality surveillance, and (c) chronic post-acute disease states were derived from a Belgian cohort study.ResultsIn 2020, the total number of COVID-19 related DALYs was estimated at 253,577 [252,541 - 254,739], which is higher than in 2021, when it was 139,281 [136,704 - 142,306]. The observed COVID-19 burden was largely borne by the elderly, and over 90% of the burden was attributable to premature mortality (i.e., YLLs). In younger people, morbidity (i.e., YLD) contributed relatively more to the DALYs, especially in 2021, when vaccination was rolled out. Morbidity was mainly attributable to long-lasting post-acute symptoms.ConclusionCOVID-19 had a substantial impact on population health in Belgium, especially in 2020, when COVID-19 would have been the main cause of disease burden if all other causes had maintained their 2019 level.
| S-EPMC10476343 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTo date, it is not fully understood to what extent COVID-19 has burdened society in Japan. This study aimed to estimate the total disease burden due to COVID-19 in Japan during 2020-2021.MethodsWe stratify disease burden estimates by age group and present it as absolute Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) lost and QALYs lost per 100,000 persons. The total estimated value of QALYs lost consists of (1) QALYs lost brought by deaths due to COVID-19, (2) QALYs lost brought by inpatient cases, (3) QALYs lost brought by outpatient cases, and (4) QALYs lost brought by long-COVID.ResultsThe total QALYs lost due to COVID-19 was estimated as 286,782 for two years, 114.0 QALYs per 100,000 population per year. 71.3% of them were explained by the burden derived from deaths. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the burden of outpatient cases was the most sensitive factor.ConclusionsThe large part of disease burden due to COVID-19 in Japan from the beginning of 2020 to the end of 2021 was derived from Wave 3, 4, and 5 and the proportion of QALYs lost due to morbidity in the total burden increased gradually. The estimated disease burden was smaller than that in other high-income countries. It will be our future challenge to take other indirect factors into consideration.
| S-EPMC10210821 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The United States is the country with the greatest number of COVID-19 deaths in 2020, 2021, and 2022. Both the U.S. and the world exhibited an increase in the number of COVID-related deaths in 2021 and a decrease in 2022. The U.S. share of COVID-related deaths declined in 2021 but rose in 2022, leading to a cumulative total U.S. mortality share of 17%. The extent to which the U.S. is an outlier is even greater based on the monetized mortality costs. Using the value of a statistical life to monetize the mortality impact increases the performance gap between the U.S. and the rest of the world because of the high mortality risk valuation in the U.S. The worldwide COVID-19 mortality cost was $29.4 trillion as of January 1, 2023, with a U.S. share of $12.7 trillion, or 43% of the global total. Throughout the COVID pandemic, the U.S. mortality cost share has been in the narrow range of 43% to 45%. Given the high U.S. value of a statistical life, these monetized mortality cost values are more than double the U.S. share of COVID-related deaths. The U.S. mortality cost share is greater if the value of a statistical life declines more than proportionally with income for low-income countries.
| S-EPMC10174491 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe burden of disease based on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) is one of the internationally accepted metrics for assessing the impact of a disease or injury on population health. This study aimed to provide evidence of the burden of COVID-19 on health in Iran based on hospital-level data from the Iran Health Insurance Organization (IHIO), which covers almost half of the country's population.MethodsThe data of all IHIO enrollees who were referred to hospitals across the country from the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic (February 2020) to December 30, 2021, with assigned diagnosis codes of COVID-19, were extracted from the hospital information processing system. The DALYs due to COVID-19 were estimated using the standard approach of the World Health Organization and the European Burden of Disease Network guideline.ResultsIn the years 2020 and 2021, among a population of about 42 million people, 1,040,367 individuals were admitted to the hospital due to COVID-19 infection, of whom 73% were hospitalized (760,963 patients). The total estimated DALYs for these two years were 665,823 and 928,393, respectively (1,603 and 2,234 per 100,000 population). 99.7% of DALYs were attributed to years of life lost due to premature death (YLLs). The share of the disease burden in the age groups of under 20 years, 20-49 years, 50-80 years, and over 80 years was 6.6%, 26.4%, 58.4%, and 8.6%, respectively.ConclusionsBased on the hospital-level data estimates, COVID-19 has had a significant burden on health in Iran. COVID-19 was identified as the fifth leading cause of disease burden in Iran during the study period, ranking after cardiovascular diseases, psychological disorders, neoplasms, and musculoskeletal disorders. Additionally, COVID-19 was the third major cause of death, following cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms. Policymaking and the implementation of comprehensive programs to enhance the response of the health system and society to outbreaks of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases are of utmost importance.
| S-EPMC11346186 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesThis study describes the characteristics of admitted HCWs reported to the DATCOV surveillance system, and the factors associated with in-hospital mortality in South African HCWs.MethodsData from March 5, 2020 to April 30, 2021 were obtained from DATCOV, a national hospital surveillance system monitoring COVID-19 admissions in South Africa. Characteristics of HCWs were compared with those of non-HCWs. Furthermore, a logistic regression model was used to assess factors associated with in-hospital mortality among HCWs.ResultsIn total, there were 169 678 confirmed COVID-19 admissions, of which 6364 (3.8%) were HCWs. More of these HCW admissions were accounted for in wave 1 (48.6%; n = 3095) than in wave 2 (32.0%; n = 2036). Admitted HCWs were less likely to be male (28.2%; n = 1791) (aOR 0.3; 95% CI 0.3-0.4), in the 50-59 age group (33.1%; n = 2103) (aOR 1.4; 95% CI 1.1-1.8), or accessing the private health sector (63.3%; n = 4030) (aOR 1.3; 95% CI 1.1-1.5). Age, comorbidities, race, wave, province, and sector were significant risk factors for COVID-19-related mortality.ConclusionThe trends in cases showed a decline in HCW admissions in wave 2 compared with wave 1. Acquired SARS-COV-2 immunity from prior infection may have been a reason for reduced admissions and mortality of HCWs despite the more transmissible and more severe beta variant in wave 2.
| S-EPMC9433333 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In this work, the COVID-19 pandemic burden in Ukraine is investigated retrospectively using the excess mortality measures during 2020-2021. In particular, the epidemic impact on the Ukrainian population is studied via the standardized both all-cause and cause-specific mortality scores before and during the epidemic. The excess mortality counts during the pandemic were predicted based on historic data using parametric and nonparametric modeling and then compared with the actual reported counts to quantify the excess. The corresponding standardized mortality P-score metrics were also compared with the neighboring countries. In summary, there were three "waves" of excess all-cause mortality in Ukraine in December 2020, April 2021 and November 2021 with excess of 32%, 43% and 83% above the expected mortality. Each new "wave" of the all-cause mortality was higher than the previous one and the mortality "peaks" corresponded in time to three "waves" of lab-confirmed COVID-19 mortality. The lab-confirmed COVID-19 mortality constituted 9% to 24% of the all-cause mortality during those three peak months. Overall, the mortality trends in Ukraine over time were similar to neighboring countries where vaccination coverage was similar to that in Ukraine. For cause-specific mortality, the excess observed was due to pneumonia as well as circulatory system disease categories that peaked at the same times as the all-cause and lab-confirmed COVID-19 mortality, which was expected. The pneumonias as well as circulatory system disease categories constituted the majority of all cases during those peak times. The seasonality in mortality due to the infectious and parasitic disease category became less pronounced during the pandemic. While the reported numbers were always relatively low, alcohol-related mortality also declined during the pandemic.
| S-EPMC10139669 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Deaths from COVID-19 likely exceeded official statistics in Zambia because of limited testing and incomplete death registration. We describe a sentinel COVID-19 mortality surveillance system in Lusaka, Zambia. We analyzed surveillance data on deceased persons of all ages undergoing verbal autopsy (VA) and COVID-19 testing at the University Teaching Hospital (UTH) mortuary in Lusaka, Zambia, from April 2020 through August 2021. VA was done by surveillance officers for community deaths and in-patient deaths that occurred <48 hours after admission. A standardized questionnaire about the circumstances proximal to death was used, with a probable cause of death assigned by a validated computer algorithm. Nasopharyngeal specimens from deceased persons were tested for COVID-19 using polymerase chain reaction and rapid diagnostic tests. We analyzed the cause of death by COVID-19 test results. Of 12,919 deceased persons at UTH mortuary during the study period, 5,555 (43.0%) had a VA and COVID-19 test postmortem, of which 79.7% were community deaths. Overall, 278 (5.0%) deceased persons tested COVID-19 positive; 7.1% during waves versus 1.4% during nonwave periods. Most (72.3%) deceased persons testing COVID-19 positive reportedly had fever, cough, and/or dyspnea and most (73.5%) reportedly had an antemortem COVID-19 test. Common causes of death for those testing COVID-19 positive included acute cardiac disease (18.3%), respiratory tract infections (16.5%), other types of cardiac diseases (12.9%), and stroke (7.2%). A notable portion of deceased persons at a sentinel site in Lusaka tested COVID-19 positive during waves, supporting the notion that deaths from COVID-19 might have been undercounted in Zambia. Many had displayed classic COVID-19 symptoms and been tested before death yet nevertheless died in the community, potentially indicating strained medical services during waves. The high proportion of cardiovascular diseases deaths might reflect the hypercoagulable state during severe COVID-19. Early supportive treatment and availability of antivirals might lessen future mortality.
| S-EPMC10980196 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC8912932 | biostudies-literature