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Cluster detection with random neighbourhood covering: Application to invasive Group A Streptococcal disease.


ABSTRACT: The rapid detection of outbreaks is a key step in the effective control and containment of infectious diseases. In particular, the identification of cases which might be epidemiologically linked is crucial in directing outbreak-containment efforts and shaping the intervention of public health authorities. Often this requires the detection of clusters of cases whose numbers exceed those expected by a background of sporadic cases. Quantifying exceedances rapidly is particularly challenging when only few cases are typically reported in a precise location and time. To address such important public health concerns, we present a general method which can detect spatio-temporal deviations from a Poisson point process and estimate the odds of an isolate being part of a cluster. This method can be applied to diseases where detailed geographical information is available. In addition, we propose an approach to explicitly take account of delays in microbial typing. As a case study, we considered invasive group A Streptococcus infection events as recorded and typed by Public Health England from 2015 to 2020.

SUBMITTER: Cavallaro M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9744322 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Cluster detection with random neighbourhood covering: Application to invasive Group A Streptococcal disease.

Cavallaro Massimo M   Coelho Juliana J   Ready Derren D   Decraene Valerie V   Lamagni Theresa T   McCarthy Noel D ND   Todkill Dan D   Keeling Matt J MJ  

PLoS computational biology 20221130 11


The rapid detection of outbreaks is a key step in the effective control and containment of infectious diseases. In particular, the identification of cases which might be epidemiologically linked is crucial in directing outbreak-containment efforts and shaping the intervention of public health authorities. Often this requires the detection of clusters of cases whose numbers exceed those expected by a background of sporadic cases. Quantifying exceedances rapidly is particularly challenging when on  ...[more]

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