Dataset Information

The epidemic of malignant mesothelioma in China: a prediction of incidence during 2016-2030.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Malignant mesothelioma is an invasive cancer with a poor prognosis. The crude incidence rate of malignant mesothelioma in China increased throughout 2000 to 2013, which attracted attention. In order to predict the incidence trend of malignant mesothelioma in China, a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) prediction model was constructed using publicly available data from the National Cancer Registration Network.

Methods

Based on the annual reports of the national cancer registration from 2005 to 2015, the incidence trend of malignant mesothelioma from 2016 to 2030 in China was forecast using the APC Modeling and Prediction package from the Institute of Biomedical Engineering, London.

Results

The crude incidence rates of malignant mesothelioma decreased from 2.2 per one million person-years in 2005 to 1.6 per one million person-years in 2015. The incidence rates remained stable over the 11-year time period after age standardization. Aging was found to have a dominant effect on the trends. The Bayesian APC model showed that the crude incidence rates would increase from 1.4 per one million person-years in 2016 to 1.9 per one million person-years in 2030, and the estimated number of new incident cases would increase to 2,775 in 2030. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) remained steady.

Conclusions

In the future decade, the incidence of malignant mesothelioma may increase, but the ASR will remain stable. Considering its high degree of malignancy, malignant mesothelioma still needs to be taken seriously.

SUBMITTER: Zhai Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9830266 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

The epidemic of malignant mesothelioma in China: a prediction of incidence during 2016-2030.

Zhai Yirui Y Hui Zhouguang Z Chen Wanqing W Ying Jianming J Li Junling J Gao Shugeng S

Translational lung cancer research 20221201 12

<h4>Background</h4>Malignant mesothelioma is an invasive cancer with a poor prognosis. The crude incidence rate of malignant mesothelioma in China increased throughout 2000 to 2013, which attracted attention. In order to predict the incidence trend of malignant mesothelioma in China, a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) prediction model was constructed using publicly available data from the National Cancer Registration Network.<h4>Methods</h4>Based on the annual reports of the national cancer regi ...[more]

PMID: 36636406

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Project description:BackgroundNational Cancer Center (NCC) of China annually reports the nationwide statistics for cancer incidence and mortality using population-based cancer registry data from all available cancer registries in China.MethodsThere were a total of 487 registries which reported high quality data of cancer incidence and mortality across China in 2016. The nationwide numbers of new cancer cases and deaths were estimated using the pooled cancer registry data, which were stratified by area (urban/rural), sex, age group (0, 1-4, 5-9, 10-14…85+) and cancer site for incidence and mortality, and then multiplied by corresponding national population. The world Segi's population was applied for the calculation of age-standardized rates.ResultsAbout 4,064,000 new cancer cases and 2,413,500 new cancer deaths occurred in China in 2016. Cancers of the lung, colon-rectum, stomach, liver and female breast were the top five common cancers, accounting for 57.4% of total cancer new cases. Cancers of the lung, liver, stomach, colon-rectum and esophagus were the five leading causes of cancer deaths, accounting for 69.3% of total cancer deaths. The crude and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) were 293.91 and 186.46 per 100,000 population, respectively. The crude mortality rate was 174.55/100,000 and the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was 105.19/100,000. The ASIR was higher but the ASMR was lower in urban areas than that in rural areas. In past decades, the ASIR was relatively stable in males, but significantly increased by about 2.3% per year in females for overall cancers combined. In contrast, the ASMR significantly decreased by about 1.2% per year for both sexes during 2000-2016. Notably, the cancer-specific ASIR and ASMR of esophageal, stomach, and liver cancers decreased significantly, whereas both rates for cancers of the colon-rectum, prostate, female breast, cervix, and thyroid increased significantly.ConclusionsCancer remains a major public health problem in China, which demands long-term collaborative efforts of a broad community. With the national guideline on cancer prevention and control, tailored cancer prevention and control programs are needed in different regions to help reduce the burden of these highly fatal diseases in China.

Project description:BackgroundBladder cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related deaths all over the world. Epidemiological studies of bladder cancer are therefore crucial for policy making. This study was carried out to describe the characteristics of changes in the incidence and mortality of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2016 by age group, gender, geographical region, and sociodemographic index (SDI) and to simultaneously project future trends up to 2030.MethodsIncidence and mortality trends in bladder cancer from 1990 to 2016 were described based on data and methodologies from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study. The data also allowed the future trends of bladder cancer incidence and mortality to be predicted by ARIMA model. Trends were analyzed by age group, gender, and SDI. Projections to 2030 were sub-analyzed by SDI countries. R software (x64 version 3.5.1), SAS (version 9.3), and SPSS (version 22.0) were used throughout the process.ResultsGlobally, in 2016, there were 437,442 [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 426,709-447,912] new bladder cancer cases and 186,199 (95% UI, 180,453-191,686) bladder cancer-associated deaths. Between 1990 and 2016, changes in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of bladder cancer decreased by 5.91% from 7.11 (95% UI, 6.93-7.27) in 1990 to 6.69 (95% UI, 6.52-6.85) in 2016. The age-standardized death rate (ASDR) decreased from 3.58 (95% UI, 3.49-3.68) to 2.94 (95% UI, 2.85-3.03) over the same period of time. In future, the greatest occurrence of bladder cancer will be in high SDI countries, followed by high-middle SDI countries. Moreover, bladder cancer incidence rates may increase substantially in middle SDI countries, while the incidence rates will remain relatively stable for men and women in other SDI countries. From 2017 to 2030, bladder cancer deaths will continue to increase in low SDI countries, while deaths in other SDI countries will continue to decrease.ConclusionsThere was a regional difference in the incidence and mortality trends of bladder cancer between 1990 and 2016. Overall, the situation is not optimistic. From 2017 to 2030, the incidence of bladder cancer will continue to rise, especially in high and high-middle SDI countries, where decision-makers should propose appropriate policies on the screening and prevention of bladder cancer.

Dataset Information

The epidemic of malignant mesothelioma in China: a prediction of incidence during 2016-2030.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

The epidemic of malignant mesothelioma in China: a prediction of incidence during 2016-2030.

Similar Datasets

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