Dataset Information

Brief Report: Dapivirine Ring HIV-1 Prevention Effectiveness for Women Engaged in Vaginal and Anal Intercourse: Insights From Mathematical Modeling.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The dapivirine vaginal ring reduces the risk of HIV-1 acquisition in acts of vaginal intercourse (VI), and although it does not offer HIV-1 protection in acts of anal intercourse (AI), it may provide some overall risk reduction for women for whom most sex acts are vaginal. We estimated the protective effect of the ring among women with high ring adherence engaged in both VI and AI.

Methods

We developed a microsimulation model using data from the MTN-020/ASPIRE trial. Among women who reported any AI, we estimated the proportion of all sex acts that were AI. Model scenarios varied this proportion among women engaged in both VI and AI from 5% to 30%, including the trial-observed median proportion of 6.3% of all acts being AI. In primary analyses, dapivirine ring efficacy was model-calibrated at 70% for vaginal exposures and assumed to be 0% for anal exposures.

Results

Among highly adherent women for whom 6.3% of sex acts were AI, the ring reduced HIV-1 risk by 53% (interquartile range: 44, 60), with a decline to 26% (interquartile range: 16, 36) among women for whom 30% of acts were AI. Ring effectiveness was less than 40% among women for whom AI accounted for greater than 16% of all sex acts, although this represented less than 5% of all women in the ASPIRE trial.

Conclusions

For most women, including those who engage in AI, because most HIV-1 risk occurs in acts of vaginal sex, the dapivirine vaginal ring can provide important HIV-1 protection.

SUBMITTER: Peebles K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9839478 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Brief Report: Dapivirine Ring HIV-1 Prevention Effectiveness for Women Engaged in Vaginal and Anal Intercourse: Insights From Mathematical Modeling.

Peebles Kathryn K Brown Elizabeth R ER Hendrix Craig W CW Palanee-Phillips Thesla T van der Straten Ariane A Harkoo Ishana I Reddy Krishnaveni K Mirembe Brenda G BG Jeenarain Nitesha N Hillier Sharon L SL Baeten Jared M JM Barnabas Ruanne V RV

Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) 20230201 2

<h4>Background</h4>The dapivirine vaginal ring reduces the risk of HIV-1 acquisition in acts of vaginal intercourse (VI), and although it does not offer HIV-1 protection in acts of anal intercourse (AI), it may provide some overall risk reduction for women for whom most sex acts are vaginal. We estimated the protective effect of the ring among women with high ring adherence engaged in both VI and AI.<h4>Methods</h4>We developed a microsimulation model using data from the MTN-020/ASPIRE trial. Am ...[more]

PMID: 36184755

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Project description:BackgroundAntiretroviral medications that are used as prophylaxis can prevent acquisition of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection. However, in clinical trials among African women, the incidence of HIV-1 infection was not reduced, probably because of low adherence. Longer-acting methods of drug delivery, such as vaginal rings, may simplify use of antiretroviral medications and provide HIV-1 protection.MethodsWe conducted a phase 3, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of a monthly vaginal ring containing dapivirine, a non-nucleoside HIV-1 reverse-transcriptase inhibitor, involving women between the ages of 18 and 45 years in Malawi, South Africa, Uganda, and Zimbabwe.ResultsAmong the 2629 women who were enrolled, 168 HIV-1 infections occurred: 71 in the dapivirine group and 97 in the placebo group (incidence, 3.3 and 4.5 per 100 person-years, respectively). The incidence of HIV-1 infection in the dapivirine group was lower by 27% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1 to 46; P=0.046) than that in the placebo group. In an analysis that excluded data from two sites that had reduced rates of retention and adherence, the incidence of HIV-1 infection in the dapivirine group was lower by 37% (95% CI, 12 to 56; P=0.007) than that in the placebo group. In a post hoc analysis, higher rates of HIV-1 protection were observed among women over the age of 21 years (56%; 95% CI, 31 to 71; P<0.001) but not among those 21 years of age or younger (-27%; 95% CI, -133 to 31; P=0.45), a difference that was correlated with reduced adherence. The rates of adverse medical events and antiretroviral resistance among women who acquired HIV-1 infection were similar in the two groups.ConclusionsA monthly vaginal ring containing dapivirine reduced the risk of HIV-1 infection among African women, with increased efficacy in subgroups with evidence of increased adherence. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01617096 .).

Project description:IntroductionA vaginal ring containing dapivirine is effective for HIV prevention as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We evaluated the potential epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of dapivirine vaginal ring PrEP among 22- to 45-year-old women in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.MethodsUsing mathematical modelling, we studied dapivirine vaginal ring PrEP implementation, either unprioritized, or prioritized based on HIV incidence (≥3% per year), age (22 to 29 years) or female sex worker status, alongside the implementation of voluntary medical male circumcision and antiretroviral therapy scaled-up to UNAIDS Fast-Track targets. Outcomes over the intervention (2019 to 2030) and lifetime horizons included cumulative HIV infections, life-years lived, costs and cost-effectiveness. We assessed the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios against the revealed willingness to pay ($500) and the standard (2017 per capita gross domestic product; $6161) cost-effectiveness thresholds for South Africa.ResultsCompared to a reference scenario without PrEP, implementation of dapivirine vaginal ring PrEP, assuming 56% effectiveness and covering 50% of 22 to 29-year-old or high-incidence women, prevented 10% or 11% of infections by 2030 respectively. Equivalent, unprioritized coverage (30%) prevented fewer infections (7%), whereas 50% coverage of female sex workers had the least impact (4%). Drug resistance attributable to PrEP was modest (2% to 4% of people living with drug-resistant HIV). Over the lifetime horizon, dapivirine PrEP implementation among female sex workers was cost-saving, whereas incidence-based PrEP cost $1898 per life-year gained, relative to PrEP among female sex workers and $989 versus the reference scenario. In a scenario of 37% PrEP effectiveness, PrEP had less impact, but prioritization to female sex workers remained cost-saving. In uncertainty analysis, female sex worker PrEP was consistently cost-saving; and over the lifetime horizon, PrEP cost less than $6161 per life-year gained in over 99% of simulations, whereas incidence- and age-based PrEP cost below $500 per life-year gained in 61% and 49% of simulations respectively. PrEP adherence and efficacy, and the effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy for HIV prevention, were the principal drivers of uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness of PrEP.ConclusionsDapivirine vaginal ring PrEP would be cost-saving in KwaZulu-Natal if prioritized to female sex workers. PrEP's impact on HIV prevention would be increased, with potential affordability, if prioritized to women by age or incidence.

Project description:BackgroundExpanded HIV prevention options are needed to increase uptake of HIV prevention among women, especially in generalized epidemics. As the dapivirine vaginal ring moves forward through regulatory review and open-label extension studies, the potential public health impact and cost-effectiveness of this new prevention method are not fully known. We used mathematical modeling to explore the impact and cost-effectiveness of the ring in different implementation scenarios alongside scale-up of other HIV prevention interventions. Given the knowledge gaps about key factors influencing the ring's implementation, including potential uptake and delivery costs, we engaged in a stakeholder consultation process to elicit plausible parameter ranges and explored scenarios to identify the possible range of impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness.Methods and findingsWe used the Goals model to simulate scenarios of oral and ring pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) implementation among female sex workers and among other women ≤21 years or >21 years with multiple male partners, in Kenya, South Africa, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. In these scenarios, we varied antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage, dapivirine ring coverage and ring effectiveness (encompassing efficacy and adherence) by risk group. Following discussions with stakeholders, the maximum level of PrEP coverage (oral and/or ring) considered in each country was equal to modern contraception use minus condom use in the two age groups. We assessed results for 18 years, from 2018 to 2035. In South Africa, for example, the HIV infections averted by PrEP (ring plus oral PrEP) ranged from 310,000 under the highest-impact scenario (including ART held constant at 2017 levels, high ring coverage, and 85% ring effectiveness) to 55,000 under the lowest-impact scenario (including ART reaching the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets by 2020, low ring coverage, and 30% ring effectiveness). This represented a range of 6.4% to 2.2% of new HIV infections averted. Given our assumptions, the addition of the ring results in 11% to 132% more impact than oral PrEP alone. The cost per HIV infection averted for the ring ranged from US$13,000 to US$121,000.ConclusionsThis analysis offers a wide range of scenarios given the considerable uncertainty over ring uptake, consistency of use, and effectiveness, as well as HIV testing, prevention, and treatment use over the next two decades. This could help inform donors and implementers as they decide where to allocate resources in order to maximize the impact of the dapivirine ring in light of funding and implementation constraints. Better understanding of the cost and potential uptake of the intervention would improve our ability to estimate its cost-effectiveness and assess where it can have the most impact.

Dataset Information

Brief Report: Dapivirine Ring HIV-1 Prevention Effectiveness for Women Engaged in Vaginal and Anal Intercourse: Insights From Mathematical Modeling.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Brief Report: Dapivirine Ring HIV-1 Prevention Effectiveness for Women Engaged in Vaginal and Anal Intercourse: Insights From Mathematical Modeling.

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