Correcting the reproduction number for time-varying tests: A proposal and an application to COVID-19 in France.

ABSTRACT: We provide a novel way to correct the effective reproduction number for the time-varying amount of tests, using the acceleration index (Baunez et al., 2021) as a simple measure of viral spread dynamics. Not correcting results in the reproduction number being a biased estimate of viral acceleration and we provide a formal decomposition of the resulting bias, involving the useful notions of test and infectivity intensities. When applied to French data for the COVID-19 pandemic (May 13, 2020-October 26, 2022), our decomposition shows that the reproduction number, when considered alone, characteristically underestimates the resurgence of the pandemic, compared to the acceleration index which accounts for the time-varying volume of tests. Because the acceleration index aggregates all relevant i

SUBMITTER: Baunez C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9970098 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature