Dataset Information

'Potentially curative therapies' for hepatocellular carcinoma: how many patients can actually be cured?

ABSTRACT:

Background

Treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is predicated on early diagnosis such that 'curative therapies' can be successfully applied. The term 'curative' is, however, poorly quantitated. We aimed to complement our previous work by developing a statistical model to predict cure after ablation and to use this analysis to compare the true curative potential of the various 'curative' therapies.

Methods

We accessed data from 1571 HCC patients treated in 5 centres receiving radiofrequency (RFA) or microwave (MWA) ablation and used flexible parametric modelling to determine the curative fraction. The results of this analysis were then combined with our previous estimations to provide a simple calculator applicable to all patients undergoing potentially curative therapies.

Results

The cure fraction was 18.3% rising to about 40% in patients with good liver function and very small tumours.

Conclusion

Cure for HCC treated with ablation occurs in the order of 20% to 30%, similar to that achievable by resection but much inferior to transplantation where the analogous figure is >70%. We provide a 'calculator' that permits clinicians to estimate the chance of cure for any individual patient, based on readily available clinical features.

SUBMITTER: Cucchetti A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10133312 | biostudies-literature | 2023 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

'Potentially curative therapies' for hepatocellular carcinoma: how many patients can actually be cured?

Cucchetti Alessandro A Elshaarawy Omar O Han Guohong G Chong Charing C N CCN Serra Carla C O'Rourke Joanne Marie JM Crew Richard R Felicani Cristina C Ercolani Giorgio G Shah Tahir T Vogel Arndt A Lai Paul B S PBS Johnson Philip J PJ

British journal of cancer 20230217 9

<h4>Background</h4>Treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is predicated on early diagnosis such that 'curative therapies' can be successfully applied. The term 'curative' is, however, poorly quantitated. We aimed to complement our previous work by developing a statistical model to predict cure after ablation and to use this analysis to compare the true curative potential of the various 'curative' therapies.<h4>Methods</h4>We accessed data from 1571 HCC patients treated in 5 centres receivin ...[more]

PMID: 36807338

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Project description:BackgroundHepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence and mortality vary by race/ethnicity and both are higher in Black patients than in Whites. For HCC surveillance, all cirrhotic patients are advised to undergo lifelong twice-annual abdominal imaging. We investigated factors associated with surveillance and HCC incidence in a diverse HCC risk group, cirrhotic patients recently cured of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection.MethodsIn this observational cohort study, all participants (n = 357) had advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis and were cured of HCV with antiviral treatment. None had Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) 2-5 lesions prior to HCV cure. Ultrasound, computed tomography, and/or magnetic resonance imaging were used for surveillance.ResultsAt a median follow-up of 40 months [interquartile range (IQR) = 28-48], the median percentage of time up-to-date with surveillance was 49% (IQR) = 30%-71%. The likelihood of receiving a first surveillance examination was not significantly associated with race/ethnicity, but was higher for patients with more advanced cirrhosis, for example, bilirubin [odds ratio (OR) = 3.8/mg/dL, p = 0.002], private insurance (OR = 3.4, p = 0.006), and women (OR = 2.3, p = 0.008). The likelihood of receiving two or three examinations was significantly lower for non-Hispanic Blacks and Hispanics versus non-Hispanic Whites (OR = 0.39, and OR = 0.40, respectively, p < 0.005 for both) and for patients with higher platelet counts (OR = 0.99/10,000 cells/µl, p = 0.01), but higher for patients with private insurance (OR = 2.8, p < 0.001). Incident HCC was associated with higher bilirubin (OR = 1.7, p = 0.02) and lower lymphocyte counts (OR = 0.16, p = 0.01).ConclusionsContrary to best practices, HCC surveillance was associated with sociodemographic factors (insurance status and race/ethnicity) among patients cured of HCV. Guideline-concordant surveillance is needed to address healthcare disparities.

Project description:Patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are potential candidates for curative treatments such as radiofrequency ablation (RFA), surgical resection (SR), or liver transplantation (LT), which have demonstrated a significant survival benefit. We aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of curative and combination treatment strategies among patients diagnosed with HCC during 2002-2010. This study used Ontario Cancer Registry-linked administrative data to estimate effectiveness and costs (2013 USD) of the treatment strategies from the healthcare payer's perspective. Multiple imputation by logistic regression was used to handle missing data. A net benefit regression approach of baseline important covariates and propensity score adjustment were used to calculate incremental net benefit to generate incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and uncertainty measures. Among 2,222 patients diagnosed with HCC, 10.5%, 14.1%, and 10.3% received RFA, SR, and LT monotherapy, respectively; 0.5-3.1% dual treatments; and 0.5% triple treatments. Compared with no treatment (53.2%), transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) + RFA (average $2,465, 95% CI: -$20,000-$36,600/quality-adjusted life years [QALY]) or RFA monotherapy ($15,553, 95% CI: $3,500-$28,500/QALY) appears to be the most cost-effective modality with lowest ICER value. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve showed that if the relevant threshold was $50,000/QALY, RFA monotherapy and TACE+ RFA would have a cost-effectiveness probability of 100%. Strategies using LT delivered the most additional QALYs and became cost-effective at a threshold of $77,000/QALY. Our findings found that TACE+ RFA dual treatment or RFA monotherapy appears to be the most cost-effective curative treatment for patients with potential early stage of HCC in Ontario. These findings highlight the importance of identifying and measuring differential benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of alternative HCC curative treatments in order to evaluate whether they are providing good value for money in the real world.

Dataset Information

'Potentially curative therapies' for hepatocellular carcinoma: how many patients can actually be cured?

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

'Potentially curative therapies' for hepatocellular carcinoma: how many patients can actually be cured?

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