Dataset Information

Modeling mortality risk in patients with severe COVID-19 from Mexico.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Severe acute respiratory syndrome caused by a coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is responsible for the COVID-19 disease pandemic that began in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Since then, nearly seven million deaths have occurred worldwide due to COVID-19. Mexicans are especially vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic as Mexico has nearly the worst observed case-fatality ratio (4.5%). As Mexican Latinos represent a vulnerable population, this study aimed to determine significant predictors of mortality in Mexicans with COVID-19 who were admitted to a large acute care hospital.

Methods

In this observational, cross-sectional study, 247 adult patients participated. These patients were consecutively admitted to a third-level referral center in Yucatan, Mexico, from March 1st, 2020, to August 31st, 2020, with COVID-19-related symptoms. Lasso logistic and binary logistic regression were used to identify clinical predictors of death.

Results

After a hospital stay of about eight days, 146 (60%) patients were discharged; however, 40% died by the twelfth day (on average) after hospital admission. Out of 22 possible predictors, five crucial predictors of death were found, ranked by the most to least important: (1) needing to be placed on a mechanical ventilator, (2) reduced platelet concentration at admission, (3) increased derived neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, (4) increased age, and (5) reduced pulse oximetry saturation at admission. The model revealed that these five variables shared ~83% variance in outcome.

Conclusion

Of the 247 Mexican Latinos patients admitted with COVID-19, 40% died 12 days after admission. The patients' need for mechanical ventilation (due to severe illness) was the most important predictor of mortality, as it increased the odds of death by nearly 200-fold.

SUBMITTER: Cortes-Telles A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10263446 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Modeling mortality risk in patients with severe COVID-19 from Mexico.

Cortes-Telles Arturo A Figueroa-Hurtado Esperanza E Ortiz-Farias Diana Lizbeth DL Zavorsky Gerald Stanley GS

Frontiers in medicine 20230526

<h4>Background</h4>Severe acute respiratory syndrome caused by a coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is responsible for the COVID-19 disease pandemic that began in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Since then, nearly seven million deaths have occurred worldwide due to COVID-19. Mexicans are especially vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic as Mexico has nearly the worst observed case-fatality ratio (4.5%). As Mexican Latinos represent a vulnerable population, this study aimed to determine significant predictors ...[more]

PMID: 37324144

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Project description:IntroductionSome patients with COVID-19 pneumonia present systemic disease involving multiple systems. There is limited information about the clinical characteristics and events leading to acute kidney injury (AKI). We described the factors associated with the development of AKI and explored the relation of AKI and mortality in Mexican population with severe COVID-19.MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed the medical records of individuals with severe pneumonia caused by SARS-CoV-2 hospitalized at the largest third-level reference institution for COVID-19 care in Mexico between March and April 2020. Demographic information, comorbidities, clinical and laboratory data, dates of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and hospitalization, mechanical-ventilator settings and use of vasoactive drugs were recorded.ResultsOf 99 patients studied, 58 developed AKI (58.6%). The risk factors for AKI were older age (OR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.01-1.13, p = 0.024); obesity (OR = 6.58, 95% CI = 1.8-24.05, p = 0.040); and the need for IMV (OR = 6.18, CI = 1.29-29.58, p = 0.023). The risk factors for mortality were obesity (OR = 5.57, 95% CI = 1.48-20.93, p = 0.011); requirement of vasoactive drugs on admission (OR = 5.35, 95% CI = 1.16-24.61, p = 0.031); and AKI (OR = 8.61, 95% CI = 2.24-33.1, p = 0.002). In-hospital mortality was significantly higher in patients with AKI stage 3 (79.3%) and AKI stage 2 (68.7%) compared with those with AKI stage 1 (25%; p = 0.004). Fifty-three patients underwent the furosemide stress test (FST) to predict progression to AKI stage 3. Of those, 12 progressed to AKI stage 3 (22%). The ROC curve for the FST had an AUC of 0.681 (p = 0.009); a sensitivity of 81.6% and a specificity of 54.5%.ConclusionsAKI was common in our cohort of patients with severe pneumonia caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection. The risk factors for AKI were older age, obesity and the need for of IMV on admission. The risk factors for mortality were obesity, requirement of vasoactive drugs on admission and AKI. Mortality was more frequent in patients with AKI stages 2-3. The FST had an acceptable predictive capacity to identify patients progressing to AKI stage 3.

Dataset Information

Modeling mortality risk in patients with severe COVID-19 from Mexico.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Modeling mortality risk in patients with severe COVID-19 from Mexico.

Similar Datasets

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