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Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model.

ABSTRACT: Climate change induces a myriad of effects which influences the global tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency. Here we explore how North Atlantic and Western Pacific TCs are affected under climate change using a present-day and a future (1% pCO2 scenario) ensemble of high resolution simulations. We find that the number of TCs decreases (-45%) in the North Atlantic but increases (+15%) in the Western Pacific. Part of these opposing variations are linked to differences in the ocean's meridional overturning circulation, which gives rise to a different sea surface temperature response and air-sea fluxes between the two basins. The results show the important role of oceanic climate change on TC response.

Supplementary information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-023-06680-3.

SUBMITTER: van Westen RM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10371960 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model.

van Westen René M RM Dijkstra Henk A HA Bloemendaal Nadia N

Climate dynamics 20230122 5-6

Climate change induces a myriad of effects which influences the global tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency. Here we explore how North Atlantic and Western Pacific TCs are affected under climate change using a present-day and a future (1% pCO2 scenario) ensemble of high resolution simulations. We find that the number of TCs decreases (-45%) in the North Atlantic but increases (+15%) in the Western Pacific. Part of these opposing variations are linked to differences in the ocean's meridional o ...[more]

PMID: 37521825

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