Dataset Information

External validation of the GAP model in Chinese patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

The GAP model was widely used as a simple risk "screening" method for patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF).

Objectives

We sought to validate the GAP model in Chinese patients with IPF to evaluate whether it can accurately predict the risk for mortality.

Methods

A total of 212 patients with IPF diagnosed at China-Japan Friendship Hospital from 2015 to 2019 were enrolled. The latest follow-up ended in September 2022. Cumulative mortality of each GAP stage was calculated and compared based on Fine-Gray models for survival, and lung transplantation was treated as a competing risk. The performance of the model was evaluated in terms of both discrimination and calibration.

Results

The cumulative mortality in patients with GAP stage III was significantly higher than that in those with GAP stage I or II (Gray's test p < 0.0001). The Harrell c-index for the GAP calculator was 0.736 (95% CI: 0.667-0.864). The discrimination for the GAP staging system were similar with that for the GAP calculator. The GAP model overestimated the mortality rate at 1- and 2-year in patients classified as GAP stage I (6.90% vs. 1.77% for 1-year, 14.20% vs. 6.78% for 2-year).

Conclusions

Our findings indicated that the GAP model overestimated the mortality rate in mild group.

SUBMITTER: Zhang X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10500316 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

External validation of the GAP model in Chinese patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Zhang Xinran X Ren Yanhong Y Xie Bingbing B Wang Shiyao S Geng Jing J He Xuan X Jiang Dingyuan D He Jiarui J Luo Sa S Wang Xin X Song Dingyun D Fan Mingming M Dai Huaping H

The clinical respiratory journal 20221127 9

<h4>Introduction</h4>The GAP model was widely used as a simple risk "screening" method for patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF).<h4>Objectives</h4>We sought to validate the GAP model in Chinese patients with IPF to evaluate whether it can accurately predict the risk for mortality.<h4>Methods</h4>A total of 212 patients with IPF diagnosed at China-Japan Friendship Hospital from 2015 to 2019 were enrolled. The latest follow-up ended in September 2022. Cumulative mortality of each GAP ...[more]

PMID: 36437511

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Project description:Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) lacks effective treatment. Pirfenidone has been used to treat IPF patients. N-acetylcysteine (NAC) exerts antioxidant and antifibrotic effects on IPF cases.This study is a double-blind, modified placebo-controlled, randomized phase II trial of pirfenidone in Chinese IPF patients. We randomly assigned the enrolled Chinese IPF patients with mild to moderate impairment of pulmonary function to receive either oral pirfenidone (1800 mg per day) and NAC (1800 mg per day) or placebo and NAC (1800 mg per day) for 48 weeks. The primary endpoints were the changes in forced vital capacity (FVC) and walking distance and the lowest SPO2 during the 6-minute walk test (6MWT) at week 48. The key secondary endpoint was the progression-free survival time. This study is registered in ClinicalTrials.gov as number NCT01504334.Eighty-six patients were screened, and 76 cases were enrolled (pirfenidone + NAC: 38; placebo + NAC: 38). The effect of pirfenidone treatment was significant at the 24th week, but this effect did not persist to the 48th week. At the 24th week, the mean decline in both FVC and ΔSPO2 (%) during the 6MWT in the pirfenidone group was lower than that in the control group (-0.08 ± 0.20 L vs -0.22 ± 0.29 L, P = 0.02 and -3.44% ± 4.51% vs -6.29% ± 6.06%, P = 0.03, respectively). However, there was no significant difference between these 2 groups at the 48th week (-0.15 ± 0.25 L vs -0.25 ± 0.28 L, P = 0.11 and -4.25% ± 7.27% vs -5.31% ± 5.49%, P = 0.51, respectively). The pirfenidone treatment group did not achieve the maximal distance difference on the 6MWT at either the 24th or the 48th week. But pirfenidone treatment prolonged the progression-free survival time in the IPF patients (hazard ratio = 1.88, 95% confidence interval: 1.092-3.242, P = 0.02). In the pirfenidone group, the adverse event (AE) rate (52.63%) was higher than that in the control group (26.3%, P = 0.03). Rash was more common in the pirfenidone group (39.5% vs 13.2%, P = 0.02).Compared with placebo combined with high-dose NAC, pirfenidone combined with high-dose NAC prolonged the progression-free survival of Chinese IPF patients with mild to moderate impairment of pulmonary function. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01504334).

Project description:BackgroundHospitalizations are common among patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). We investigated the impact of hospitalizations on outcomes in patients with IPF.MethodsThe IPF-PRO Registry is an observational US registry that enrolled patients with IPF that was diagnosed or confirmed at the enrolling center in the previous 6 months. Associations between patient characteristics and hospitalization, and between hospitalization and mortality, were analyzed using Cox regression models.ResultsA total of 1002 patients with IPF were enrolled into the IPF-PRO Registry. Over a median follow-up time of 23.7 months (maximum: 67.0 months), 568 patients (56.7%) had at least one hospitalization. Of these patients, 319 (56.2%) had at least one respiratory-related hospitalization and 120 (21.1%) had at least one hospitalization with ventilatory support. Younger age (HR 0.68 [95% CI 0.55, 0.84] per 5-year increase for patients < 62 years), lower BMI (0.96 [0.93, 0.98] per 1-point increase), lower FVC % predicted (0.90 [0.83, 0.97] per 10% increase), oxygen use at rest (2.85 [2.18, 3.72]) and history of pulmonary hypertension (2.02 [1.37, 2.96]) at enrollment were associated with an increased risk of respiratory-related hospitalization during follow-up. In a multivariable model, there was an eightfold increase in the risk of mortality during hospitalization or within 90 days of discharge compared with outside of this period. The risk of mortality associated with a respiratory hospitalization or a hospitalization with ventilatory support was even greater.ConclusionsData from the IPF-PRO Registry demonstrate that hospitalizations are common among patients with IPF. The risk of mortality during hospitalization or within 90 days of discharge was high, particularly among patients who were hospitalized for a respiratory cause or received ventilatory support. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01915511. Registered 5 August 2013, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01915511.

Project description:BackgroundIdiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a chronic progressive interstitial lung disease. Many studies suggest that autophagy may be related to disease progression and prognosis in IPF. However, the mechanisms involved have not been fully elucidated.MethodsWe incorporated 232 autophagy-associated genes (AAGs) and two datasets, GSE28042 and GSE27957, from the GEO database. Univariate Cox analysis and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression were used to construct the autophagy-associated prognostic model. Gene Ontology (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) analyses were performed to investigate the functions of these autophagy-associated genes. CIBERSORT algorithm was used to calculate the immune cell infiltration between patients in the high-risk score and low-risk score groups. Quantitative Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction (qRT-PCR) was performed to explore the mRNA expression of five genes in the autophagy-associated risk model.ResultsWe constructed a 5-autophagy-associated genes signature based on Univariate Cox analysis and LASSO regression. In our autophagy-associated risk model, IPF patients in the high-risk group demonstrated a poor overall survival rate compared to patients in the low-risk group. For 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival rates, the AUC predictive value of the AAG signature was 0.670, 0.787, and 0.864, respectively. These results were validated in the GSE27957 cohort, confirming the good prognostic effect of our model. GO and KEGG pathway analyses enriched immune-related pathways between the high-risk and low-risk groups. And there was also a significant difference in immune cell infiltration between two groups. And the results of qRT-PCR showed that the expression levels of FOXO1, IRGM, MYC, and PRKCQ were significantly decreased in the Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cell (PBMC) of IPF patient samples.ConclusionOur study constructed and validated an autophagy-associated risk model based on MYC, MAPK1, IRGM, PRKCQ, and FOXO1. And those five genes may influence the progression of IPF by regulating immune responses and immune cells.

Project description:BackgroundThe prognosis for patients diagnosed with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is exceedingly grim, and there are currently no pharmacological interventions available that effectively reduce mortality rates. Emerging evidence underscores the intimate connection between mitochondrial dysfunction and the onset and advancement of IPF. However, there remains a scarcity of prognostic models for assessing the risk associated with mitochondrial-related genes in IPF. This study aims to develop a comprehensive prognostic model for IPF that incorporates mitochondrial-related genes to enhance risk assessment and guide clinical decision-making.MethodsTwo IPF-related microarray expression profiling datasets (GSE28042 and GSE70866) accompanied with survival data were acquired from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database. The "limma" R package was used to identify differentially expressed mitochondrial-related genes between normal samples and IPF samples. The prognostic model was constructed using univariate Cox regression, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression analyses, and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Multivariate independent prognostic analysis was conducted to ascertain whether the risk score could serve as an independent prognostic factor for predicting clinicopathological outcomes. A nomogram was employed to forecast the survival probability of IPF patients, providing valuable support for clinical decision-making processes. The CIBERSORT algorithm was utilized to examine discrepancies in immune cell infiltration within the model. The expression of genes screened from the prognostic model was validated in external data sets and western blot assays.ResultsWe developed a prognostic model for mitochondrial-related risks, incorporating ARMCX2 and ACOT11, and subsequently validated its predictive efficacy in the validation set. The IPF samples were stratified into high-risk and low-risk groups based on the median of the risk score. According to Kaplan-Meier curve analysis, the high-risk group exhibited inferior outcomes compared to the low-risk group. The time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis demonstrated the accurate prognostic capability of the risk model for IPF. A nomogram, accompanied by calibration curves, was presented to predict 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival in IPF patients. The risk model we employed not only unveiled significant disparities in functional enrichment between the high-risk and low-risk groups, but also demonstrated a robust correlation with the infiltration of specific immune cells.ConclusionsIn this study, the mitochondrial-related prognostic model incorporating ARMCX2 and ACOT11 demonstrates potential clinical utility for informing decision-making in IPF patients and offers valuable insights for future therapeutic interventions.

Dataset Information

External validation of the GAP model in Chinese patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Introduction

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

External validation of the GAP model in Chinese patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Similar Datasets

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