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Development of prediction models to identify hotspots of schistosomiasis in endemic regions to guide mass drug administration.

ABSTRACT: Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease affecting over 150 million people. Hotspots of Schistosoma transmission-communities where infection prevalence does not decline adequately with mass drug administration-present a key challenge in eliminating schistosomiasis. Current approaches to identify hotspots require evaluation 2-5 y after a baseline survey and subsequent mass drug administration. Here, we develop statistical models to predict hotspots at baseline prior to treatment comparing three common hotspot definitions, using epidemiologic, survey-based, and remote sensing data. In a reanalysis of randomized trials in 589 communities in five endemic countries, a regression model predicts whether Schistosoma mansoni infection prevalence will exceed the WHO threshold of 10% in year 5 ("prevalence hotspot") with 86% sensitivity, 74% specificity, and 93% negative predictive value (NPV; assuming 30% hotspot prevalence), and a regression model for Schistosoma haematobium achieves 90% sensitivity, 90% specificity, and 96% NPV. A random forest model predicts whether S. mansoni moderate and heavy infection prevalence will exceed a public health goal of 1% in year 5 ("intensity hotspot") with 92% sensitivity, 79% specificity, and 96% NPV, and a boosted trees model for S. haematobium achieves 77% sensitivity, 95% specificity, and 91% NPV. Baseline prevalence is a top predictor in all models. Prediction is less accurate in countries not represented in training data and for a third hotspot definition based on relative prevalence reduction over time ("persistent hotspot"). These models may be a tool to prioritize high-risk communities for more frequent surveillance or intervention against schistosomiasis, but prediction of hotspots remains a challenge.

SUBMITTER: Singer BJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10786280 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development of prediction models to identify hotspots of schistosomiasis in endemic regions to guide mass drug administration.

Singer Benjamin J BJ Coulibaly Jean T JT Park Hailey J HJ Andrews Jason R JR Bogoch Isaac I II Lo Nathan C NC

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20240105 2

Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease affecting over 150 million people. Hotspots of <i>Schistosoma</i> transmission-communities where infection prevalence does not decline adequately with mass drug administration-present a key challenge in eliminating schistosomiasis. Current approaches to identify hotspots require evaluation 2-5 y after a baseline survey and subsequent mass drug administration. Here, we develop statistical models to predict hotspots at baseline prior to treatment com ...[more]

PMID: 38181058

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Project description:BackgroundBrazil has the second highest case count of Hansen's disease (leprosy, HD), but factors contributing to transmission in highly endemic areas of the country remain unclear. Recent studies have shown associations of helminth infection and leprosy, supporting a biological plausibility for increased leprosy transmission in areas with helminths. However, spatial analyses of the overlap of these infections are limited. Therefore, we aimed to spatially analyze these two diseases in a co-endemic area of Minas Gerais, Brazil, in order to identify potential epidemiologic associations.MethodsAn ecological study using public health surveillance records and census data was conducted to investigate whether the occurrence of HD -and specifically multibacillary (MB) disease- was associated with the presence of schistosomiasis in a community of 41 municipalities in eastern Minas Gerais, Brazil from 2011 to 2015. Multivariate logistic regression and spatial cluster analyses using geographic information systems (GIS) were performed.ResultsThe average annual incidence of HD in the study area was 35.3 per 100,000 while Schistosoma mansoni average annual incidence was 26 per 100,000. Both HD and schistosomiasis were spatially distributed showing significant clustering across the study area. Schistosomiasis was present in 10.4% of the tracts with HD and thirteen high-high clusters of local bivariate autocorrelation for HD and schistosomiasis cases were identified. A multivariate non-spatial analysis found that census tracts with MB disease were more likely to have schistosomiasis when adjusted for population density, household density, and household income (aOR = 1.7, 95% CI 1.0, 2.7). This remained significant when accounting for spatial correlation (aOR = 1.1, 95% CI (1.0, 1.2)).ConclusionWe found clustering of both HD and schistosomiasis in this area with some statistically significant overlap of multibacillary HD with S. mansoni infection. Not only did we provide an effective approach to study the epidemiology of two endemic neglected tropical diseases with geographic spatial analyses, we highlight the need for further clinical and translational studies to study the potential epidemiologic associations uncovered.

Project description:BackgroundSchistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease, targeted by the World Health Organization for reduction in morbidity by 2020. It is caused by parasitic flukes that spread through contamination of local water sources. Traditional control focuses on mass drug administration, which kills the majority of adult worms, targeted at school-aged children. However, these drugs do not confer long-term protection and there are concerns over the emergence of drug resistance. The development of a vaccine against schistosomiasis opens the potential for control methods that could generate long-lasting population-level immunity if they are cost-effective.MethodsUsing an individual-based transmission model, matched to epidemiological data, we compared the cost-effectiveness of a range of vaccination programmes against mass drug administration, across three transmission settings. Health benefit was measured by calculating the heavy-intensity infection years averted by each intervention, while vaccine costs were assessed against robust estimates for the costs of mass drug administration obtained from data. We also calculated a critical vaccination cost, a cost beyond which vaccination might not be economically favorable, by benchmarking the cost-effectiveness of potential vaccines against the cost-effectiveness of mass drug administration, and examined the effect of different vaccine protection durations.ResultsWe found that sufficiently low-priced vaccines can be more cost-effective than traditional drugs in high prevalence settings, and can lead to a greater reduction in morbidity over shorter time-scales. MDA or vaccination programmes that target the whole community generate the most health benefits, but are generally less cost-effective than those targeting children, due to lower prevalence of schistosomiasis in adults.ConclusionsThe ultimate cost-effectiveness of vaccination will be highly dependent on multiple vaccine characteristics, such as the efficacy, cost, safety and duration of protection, as well as the subset of population targeted for vaccination. However, our results indicate that if a vaccine could be developed with reasonable characteristics and for a sufficiently low cost, then vaccination programmes can be a highly cost-effective method of controlling schistosomiasis in high-transmission areas. The population-level immunity generated by vaccination will also inevitably improve the chances of interrupting transmission of the disease, which is the long-term epidemiological goal.

Project description:IntroductionSchistosomiasis poses a serious public health problem and a social challenge affecting over 240 million people, the majority of whom live in sub-Saharan Africa. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends praziquantel (PZQ) drug treatment through regular mass drug administration (MDA) accompanied by social mobilisation and health education and sensitisation. With social mobilisation and health education and sensitisation, there is bound to be increased demand for the PZQ, especially in the case of endemic communities. However, it is not clear where communities go for PZQ treatment in the absence of PZQ MDA. We explored the health-seeking behaviours regarding schistosomiasis treatment among communities along Lake Albert in Western Uganda when MDA had delayed, to inform a review of the implementation policy for the achievement of the WHO's 2030 target of 75% coverage and uptake.Methods and materialsWe conducted a community-based qualitative study in Kagadi and Ntoroko, an endemic community in January and February 2020. We interviewed 12 individuals: local leaders, village health teams, and health workers, and conducted 28 focus group discussion sessions with 251 purposively selected community members. The audio recordings of the data were transcribed and analyzed using a thematic analysis model.ResultsGenerally, participants seldom seek medication for schistosomiasis-related signs and symptoms from government hospitals and health centres II, III and IV. Instead, they rely on community volunteers such as VHTs, private facilities, such as clinics and drug shops nearby, or traditional sources (e.g. witch doctors and herbalists). Results show that factors influencing people to seek treatment from sources other than the government are: the absence of PZQ drugs in the government health facility; health workers' negative attitude towards patients; long distances to the government hospitals and health facilities; poor and inaccessible roads; medication-related costs; and negative perceptions of the PZQ drug.ConclusionsAvailability and accessibility of PZQ seem to be a big challenge. PZQ uptake is further hampered by health systems and community-related and socio-cultural factors. Thus there is a need to bring schistosomiasis drug treatment and services closer to endemic communities, stock nearby facilities with PZQ and encourage endemic communities to take the drug. Contextualised awareness-raising campaigns are needed to debunk myths and misconceptions surrounding the drug.

Project description:IntroductionSchistosomiasis is one of the neglected tropical diseases targeted for elimination in Uganda through the Mass Drug Administration (MDA) programme. Praziquantel has been distributed using community resource persons in fixed sites and house-to-house visits; however the uptake is still below target coverage. In 2011/2012 MDA exercise, uptake stood at 50% yet WHO target coverage is 75% at community level. We assessed the uptake of MDA and the associated factors in Koome Islands, Central Uganda.MethodsIn March 2013, we conducted a mixed methods cross sectional study in 15 randomly selected villages. We interviewed a total of 615 respondents aged 18 years and above using semi structured questionnaires and five key informants were also purposively selected. Univariate and multivariate analysis was done. MDA uptake was defined as self reported swallowing of praziquantel during the last (2012) MDA campaign. We conducted key informant interviews with Ministry of Health, district health personnel and community health workers.ResultsSelf reported uptake of praziquantel was 44.7% (275/615), 95% confidence interval (CI) 40.8-48.7%. Of the 275 community members who said they had swallowed praziquantel, 142 (51.6%) reported that they had developed side effects. Uptake of MDA was more likely if the respondent was knowledgeable about schistosomiasis transmission and prevention (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.85, 95% CI 1.22-2.81) and reported to have received health education from the health personnel (AOR 5.95, 95% CI 3.67-9.65). Service delivery challenges such as drug shortages and community health worker attrition also influenced MDA in Koome Islands.ConclusionsUptake of MDA for schistosomiasis control in Koome was sub optimal. Lack of knowledge about schistosomiasis transmission and prevention, inadequate health education and drug shortages are some of the major factors associated with low uptake. These could be addressed through routine health education and systematic drug supply for the successful elimination of schistosomiasis on the islands.

Dataset Information

Development of prediction models to identify hotspots of schistosomiasis in endemic regions to guide mass drug administration.

Publications

Development of prediction models to identify hotspots of schistosomiasis in endemic regions to guide mass drug administration.

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