Epidemiology of gout – Global burden of disease research from 1990 to 2019 and future trend predictions
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PROVIDER: S-EPMC10910883 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundThe death burden attributable to modifiable risk factors is key to colorectal cancer (CRC) prevention. This study aimed to assess the prevalence and regional distribution of attributable CRC death burden worldwide from 1990 to 2019.MethodsWe extracted data from the Global Burden of Disease Study in 2019 and assessed the mortality, age-standardized death rate (ASDR), population attributable fractions, and time trend in CRC attributable to risk factors by geography, socio-demographic index (SDI) quintile, age, and sex.ResultsOver the past 30 years, from high to low SDI region, the number of deaths increased by 46.56%, 103.55%, 249.64%, 231.89%, 163.11%, and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) for ASDR were -1.06%, -0.01%, 1.32%, 1.19%, and 0.65%, respectively. ASDR in males was 1.88 times than in females in 2019; ASDR in males showed an increasing trend (AAPC 0.07%), whereas ASDR in females showed a decreasing trend (AAPC -0.69%) compared to figures in 1990. In 2019, from high to low SDI region, the 15-49 age group accounted for 3%, 6%, 10%, 11%, and 15% of the total population; dietary and metabolic factors contributed 43.4% and 20.8% to CRC-attributable death worldwide. From high to low SDI region, ASDRs caused by dietary and metabolic factors increased by -23.4%, -5.5%, 25.8%, 29.1%, 13.5%, and 1.4%, 33.3%, 100.8%, 128.4%, 77.7% respectively, compared to 1990.ConclusionsThe attributable CRC death burden gradually shifted from higher SDI to lower SDI regions. The limitation in males was more significant, and the gap is expected to be further expanded. In lower SDI regions, the death burden tended to affect younger people. The leading cause of CRC-attributable deaths was the inadequate control of dietary and metabolic risk factors.
| S-EPMC10973881 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundGout is a common and debilitating condition that is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Despite advances in medical treatment, the global burden of gout continues to increase, particularly in high-sociodemographic index (SDI) regions.ObjectiveTo address the aforementioned issue, we used age-period-cohort (APC) modeling to analyze global trends in gout incidence and prevalence from 1990 to 2019.MethodsData were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to assess all-age prevalence and age-standardized prevalence rates, as well as years lived with disability rates, for 204 countries and territories. APC effects were also examined in relation to gout prevalence. Future burden prediction was carried out using the Nordpred APC prediction of future incidence cases and the Bayesian APC model.ResultsThe global gout incidence has increased by 63.44% over the past 2 decades, with a corresponding increase of 51.12% in global years lived with disability. The sex ratio remained consistent at 3:1 (male to female), but the global gout incidence increased in both sexes over time. Notably, the prevalence and incidence of gout were the highest in high-SDI regions (95% uncertainty interval 14.19-20.62), with a growth rate of 94.3%. Gout prevalence increases steadily with age, and the prevalence increases rapidly in high-SDI quantiles for the period effect. Finally, the cohort effect showed that gout prevalence increases steadily, with the risk of morbidity increasing in younger birth cohorts. The prediction model suggests that the gout incidence rate will continue to increase globally.ConclusionsOur study provides important insights into the global burden of gout and highlights the need for effective management and prophylaxis of this condition. The APC model used in our analysis provides a novel approach to understanding the complex trends in gout prevalence and incidence, and our findings can inform the development of targeted interventions to address this growing health issue.
| S-EPMC10285625 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEctopic pregnancy (EP) is one of the leading causes of death in women in early pregnancy, and the mortality of EP have gradually decreased over time in developed countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States. However, epidemiological information on EP has been lacking in recent years, so we analyzed EP data over a thirty-year period from 1990-2019 with the help of Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) data to fill this gap.MethodsAccording to the EP data in GBD for the three decades from 1990 to 2019, we used estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) to assess the trend of age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and age-standardized disability adjusted life years (AS-DALYs) trends in EP and to explore the correlation between socio-demographic index (SDI) stratification, age stratification and EP.ResultsGlobal ASIR, ASDR, AS-DALYs for EP in 2019 are 170.33/100,000 persons (95% UI: 133.18 to 218.49), 0.16/100,000 persons (95% UI, 0.14 to 0.19) and 9.69/100,000 persons (95% UI, 8.27 to 11.31), respectively. At the overall level, ASDR is significantly negatively correlated with SDI values (R = -0.699, p < 0.001). Besides that, ASDR and AS-DALYs have basically the same pattern. In addition, iron deficiency is one of the risk factors for EP.ConclusionsIn the past three decades, the morbidity, mortality and disease burden of EP have gradually decreased. It is noteworthy that some economically disadvantaged areas are still experiencing an increase in all indicators, therefore, it is more important to strengthen the protection of women from ethnic minorities and low-income groups.
| S-EPMC10602312 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionAs an important pathogen causing diarrheal diseases, the burden and change in the death rate of norovirus-associated diseases (NADs) globally are still unknown.MethodsBased on global disease burden data from 1990 to 2019, we analyzed the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of NADs by age, region, country, and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) level. The discrete Poisson model was applied in the analysis of NADs' spatiotemporal aggregation, the Joinpoint regression model to analyze the trend of death burden of NADs over 30 years, and a generalized linear model to identify the risk factors for the death rate from NADs.ResultsThe ASDR of NADs significantly decreased by a factor of approximately 2.7 times, from 5.02 (95% CI: 1.1, 11.34) in 1990 to 1.86 (95% CI: 0.36, 4.16) in 2019 [average annual percent change (AAPC) = -3.43, 95% CI: -3.56, -3.29]. The death burden of NADs in 2019 was still highest in African regions despite a great decline in recent decades. However, the ASDR in high SDI countries presented an uptrend [0.12 (95% CI: 0.03, 0.26) in 1990 and 0.24 (95% CI: 0.03, 0.53) in 2019, AAPC = 2.52, 95% CI: 2.02-3.03], mainly observed in the elderly over 70 years old. Compared to children under 5 years old, the 2019 death rate of elderly individuals over 80 years old was much higher in high SDI countries. The generalized linear model showed that factors of the number of physicians (RR = 0.67), the proportions of children under 14 years old (RR = 1.21), elderly individuals over 65 years old (RR = 1.13), educational level (RR = 1.03) and urbanization proportion (RR = 1.01) influenced the ASDR of NADs.ConclusionsThe death burden of NADs has remained high in developing regions over the last three decades and has increased among the elderly in countries with high SDI levels, even though the global trend in NAD-associated deaths has decreased significantly in the past three decades. More effective public health policies against NADs need to be implemented in high SDI regions and for the elderly.
| S-EPMC9247406 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionGout is an inflammatory and metabolic disease characterized by arthritis and elevation of the serum uric acid (SUA) level. More and more studies have shown that high body mass index (BMI) has become one of the most important risk factors for gout.Material and methodsWe used the data of gout burden attributed to high body mass index (BMI) from global burden of disease (GBD) study 2019 to provide insights for reducing the global burden of gout.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2019, the prevalence and DALYs of gout caused by high BMI worldwide has been increasing. The burden of gout caused by high BMI is heavier in the elderly male group and regions with high SDI worldwide.ConclusionsOur findings provide evidence for the burden of gout caused by high BMI. Developing a weight management plan and lifestyle habits for groups severely affected by gout will effectively reduce the global disease and economic burden.
| S-EPMC10895944 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundUnderstanding the temporal trend of the disease burden of stroke and its attributable risk factors in China, especially at provincial levels, is important for effective prevention strategies and improvement. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) is to investigate the disease burden of stroke and its risk factors at national and provincial levels in China from 1990 to 2019.MethodsFollowing the methodology in the GBD 2019, the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of stroke cases in the Chinese population were estimated by sex, age, year, stroke subtypes (ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, and subarachnoid haemorrhage), and across 33 provincial administrative units in China from 1990 to 2019. Attributable mortality and DALYs of underlying risk factors were calculated by a comparative risk assessment.FindingsIn 2019, there were 3·94 million (95% uncertainty interval 3·43-4·58) new stroke cases in China. The incidence rate of stroke increased by 86·0% (73·2-99·0) from 1990, reaching 276·7 (241·3-322·0) per 100 000 population in 2019. The age-standardised incidence rate declined by 9·3% (3·3-15·5) from 1990 to 2019. Among 28·76 million (25·60-32·21) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019, 24·18 million (20·80-27·87) were ischaemic stroke, 4·36 million (3·69-5·05) were intracerebral haemorrhage, and 1·58 million (1·32-1·91) were subarachnoid haemorrhage. The prevalence rate increased by 106·0% (93·7-118·8) and age-standardised prevalence rate increased by 13·2% (7·7-19·1) from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, there were 2·19 million (1·89-2·51) deaths and 45·9 million (39·8-52·3) DALYs due to stroke. The mortality rate increased by 32·3% (8·6-59·0) from 1990 to 2019. Over the same period, the age-standardised mortality rate decreased by 39·8% (28·6-50·7) and the DALY rate decreased by 41·6% (30·7-50·9). High systolic blood pressure, ambient particulate matter pollution exposure, smoking, and diet high in sodium were four major risk factors for stroke burden in 2019. Moreover, we found marked differences of stroke burden and attributable risk factors across provinces in China from 1990 to 2019.InterpretationThe disease burden of stroke is still severe in China, although the age-standardised incidence and mortality rates have decreased since 1990. The stroke burden in China might be reduced through blood pressure management, lifestyle interventions, and air pollution control. Moreover, because substantial heterogeneity of stroke burden existed in different provinces, improved health care is needed in provinces with heavy stroke burden.FundingNational Key Research and Development Program of China and Taikang Yicai Public Health and Epidemic Control Fund.
| S-EPMC9047702 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAsthma is a public health problem worldwide. However, only a few studies have reported the epidemiology of asthma in various age groups in East Asia. The present study aimed to analyze and predict trends in the incidence of asthma in East Asia through the Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD 2019) study and provide information for prevention and control strategies.MethodsThe estimates of incidence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factors of asthma in China, South Korea, Japan, and the world from 1990-2019 were retrieved from the GBD 2019 study. The age-standardized rates (ASRs) and the average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) assessed the incidence, deaths, and DALYs of asthma, and the projection was assessed by applying the age-period-cohort model.ResultsThe burden of asthma in South Korea and Japan was slightly higher than in China and slightly lower than that worldwide. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of asthma in China decreased slightly from 394.58/100,000 in 1990 to 355.33/100,000 in 2019 (with an AAPC of -0.59), while the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and the age-standardized DALY rate (ASDALR) decreased significantly (with a AAPCs of -5.22 and -2.89, respectively), which were lower than those in South Korea and Japan. Moreover, males in China, South Korea, and Japan were significantly more affected by tobacco and environmental/occupational factors than females, while the proportion of metabolic factors in females was higher than that in males. The prediction for the burden of asthma in the three East Asian countries continued to decline or stabilize until 2030, especially in China and Japan.ConclusionsAlthough the overall asthma burden has a downward trend according to GBD 2019, it is still heavy in East Asia, especially South Korea. In addition, increased concern and control measures are needed for the disease burden in elderly patients.
| S-EPMC10267928 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundRotavirus is the leading global pathogen of diarrhea-associated mortality and poses a great threat to public health in all age groups. This study aimed to explore the global burden and 30-year change patterns of rotavirus infection-associated deaths.MethodsBased on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study (GBD 2019), we analyzed the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of rotavirus infection by sex, geographical region, and sociodemographic index (SDI) from 1990 to 2019. A Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the global trends in rotavirus infection over the 30 years, SaTScan software was used to detect the spatial and temporal aggregations, and a generalized linear model to explore the relationship between sociodemographic factors and death rates of rotavirus infection.ResultsGlobally, rotavirus infection was the leading cause of diarrheal deaths, accounting for 19.11% of deaths from diarrhea in 2019. Rotavirus caused a higher death burden in African, Oceanian, and South Asian countries in the past three decades. The ASDR of rotavirus declined from 11.39 (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI] 5.46-19.48) per 100,000 people in 1990 to 3.41 (95% UI 1.60-6.01) per 100,000 people in 2019, with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) (- 4.07%, P < 0.05). However, a significant uptrend was found in high-income North America (AAPC = 1.79%, P < 0.05). The death rate was the highest among children under 5 years worldwide. However, the death rates of elderly individuals over 70 years were higher than those of children under 5 years in 2019 among high, high-middle, middle, and low-middle SDI regions. Current health expenditure, gross domestic product per capita, and the number of physicians per 1000 people were significantly negatively correlated with death rates of rotavirus.ConclusionsAlthough the global trends in the rotavirus burden have decreased substantially over the past three decades, the burden of rotavirus remained high in Africa, Oceania, and South Asia. Children under 5 years and elderly individuals over 70 years were the populations most at risk for rotavirus infection-associated deaths, especially elderly individuals over 70 years in relatively high SDI regions. More attention should be paid to these areas and populations, and effective public health policies should be implemented in the future.
| S-EPMC9585833 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In recent years, there has been a global trend of aging, which has resulted in significant changes to the burden of gastritis and duodenitis (GD). Using the global burden of disease (GBD) database spanning 1990 to 2019, we evaluated the temporal trends of age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized death rates (ASDR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (AS-DALYs) for GD using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). Additionally, we examined the burden of GD across various strata, including social demographic index (SDI), age, and sex. Finally, the risk factors linked to the incidence and mortality of GD, utilizing Pearson correlation analysis. In 2019, there were 31 million GD patients globally, a notable increase of 12 million from 1990, while the ASIR, ASDR, and AS-DALYs for GD all showed a decrease. Correlation analysis showed a significant negative relationship between ASIR and SDI. Factors like hand hygiene and vitamin A deficiency had significant positive correlations with ASIR and ASDR in 2019. Over the past thirty years, the burden of GD has increased alongside global population aging. Future efforts should focus on exploring prevention for GD, with special attention to the elderly population in low SDI regions.
| S-EPMC10834532 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTo estimate the global trends and disease burden of Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) and its correlation with worldwide antibiotic consumption.MethodsClostridioides difficile infection and antibiotic consumption data were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease 2019, ResistanceMap-AntibiocUse, Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Adverse Event Reporting System, and Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System. Jointpoint regression and age-period-cohort model were developed to show the global trends and burden of CDI. Correlation tests were calculated to explore the relationship between CDI and antibiotics.ResultsGlobally, CDI is the most significant one with a high-rocketing burden increase rate among 13 pathogens causing diarrheal deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The age-standardised death rate (ASDR) increased from 0.19 in 1990 to 0.43 in 2019, in which the elderly and females are at higher risk. A rapid increase in ASDR in high to middle sociodemographic index (SDI) regions such as North America (average annual percentage change (AAPC) = 7.71%), Andean (AAPC = 7.82%), and Southern Latin America (AAPC = 11.08%) was identified. Antibiotic consumption has a significant positive correlation with CDI with different risk stratifications.ConclusionsThe global burden of CDI has continuously increased for the past 30 years, especially in high to middle-SDI regions. World antibiotic consumption showed a strong positive correlation with CDI with different risk stratification. More effective prevention and control measures should be implemented in these critical regions, with a specific emphasis on vulnerable populations, to mitigate the spread of epidemics.
| S-EPMC11327847 | biostudies-literature