Life expectancy, long-term care demand and dynamic financing mechanism simulation: an empirical study of Zhejiang Pilot, China
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Xu X
PROVIDER: S-EPMC11017606 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:This paper re-examines a well-established hypothesis postulating that life expectancy augments incentives for human capital accumulation, leading to global income differences. A major distinguishing feature of the current study is to estimate heterogeneous panel data models under a common factor framework, which explicitly accounts for parameter heterogeneity, unobserved common factors (UCFs), and variables' non-stationarity. In sharp contrast to most previous studies, I find that the impact of health improvements on human capital accumulation turns out to be imprecisely estimated at conventionally accepted levels of statistical significance. I demonstrate that conventional estimates of the educational returns to rising longevity are derived from estimating misspecified models at least partially due to parameter heterogeneity and the presence of UCFs.
| S-EPMC10092450 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Objective: To characterize miRNAs in 41-year archived plasma in relation to life expectancy independent of genes. Method: Plasma miRNAs from nine identical male twins were profiled using next-generation sequencing. Results: The average absolute difference in the minimum life expectancy was 9.68 years. Intra-class correlation coefficients were above 0.4 for 50% of miRNAs. Comparing deceased twins with their alive co-twin brothers, the concentrations were increased for 34 but decreased for 30 miRNAs. Conclusion: Identical twins discordant in life expectancy were unlike in the majority of miRNAs, suggesting that environmental factors are pivotal in miRNAs related to life expectancy.
2016-12-30 | GSE80730 | GEO
Project description:Wage theft - employers not paying workers their legally entitled wages and benefits - costs workers billions of dollars annually. We tested whether preventing wage theft could increase U.S. life expectancy and decrease inequities therein. We obtained nationally representative estimates of the 2001-2014 association between income and expected age at death for 40-year-olds (40 plus life expectancy at age 40) compiled from tax and Social Security Administration records, and estimates of the burden of wage theft from several sources, including estimates regarding minimum-wage violations (not paying workers the minimum wage) developed from Current Population Survey data. After modeling the relationship between income and expected age at death, we simulated the effects of scenarios preventing wage theft on mean expected age at death, assuming a causal effect of income on expected age at death. We simulated several scenarios, including one using data suggesting minimum-wage violations constituted 38% of all wage theft and caused 58% of affected workers' losses. Among women in the lowest income decile, mean expected age at death was 0.17 years longer in the counterfactual scenario than observed (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.11-0.22), corresponding to 528,685 (95% CI: 346,018-711,353) years extended in the total 2001-2014 age-40 population. Among men in the lowest decile, the estimates were 0.12 (95% CI: 0.07-0.17) and 380,502 (95% CI: 229,630-531,374). Moreover, among women, mean expected age at death in the counterfactual scenario increased 0.16 (95% CI: 0.06-0.27) years more among the lowest decile than among the highest decile; among men, the estimate was 0.12 (95% CI: 0.03-0.21).
| S-EPMC9246227 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Subjective life expectancy (SLE) has been found to show a significant association with mortality. In this study, we aimed to investigate the major factors affecting SLE. We also examined whether any differences existed between SLE and actuarial life expectancy (LE) in Korea.A cross-sectional survey of 1000 individuals in Korea aged 20-59 was conducted. Participants were asked about SLE via a self-reported questionnaire. LE from the National Health Insurance database in Korea was used to evaluate differences between SLE and actuarial LE. Age-adjusted least-squares means, correlations, and regression analyses were used to test the relationship of SLE with four categories of predictors: demographic factors, socioeconomic factors, health behaviors, and psychosocial factors.Among the 1000 participants, women (mean SLE, 83.43 years; 95% confidence interval, 82.41 to 84.46 years; 48% of the total sample) had an expected LE 1.59 years longer than that of men. The socioeconomic factors of household income and housing arrangements were related to SLE. Among the health behaviors, smoking status, alcohol status, and physical activity were associated with SLE. Among the psychosocial factors, stress, self-rated health, and social connectedness were related to SLE. SLE had a positive correlation with actuarial estimates (r=0.61, p<0.001). Gender, household income, history of smoking, and distress were related to the presence of a gap between SLE and actuarial LE.Demographic factors, socioeconomic factors, health behaviors, and psychosocial factors showed significant associations with SLE, in the expected directions. Further studies are needed to determine the reasons for these results.
| S-EPMC5541275 | biostudies-other
Project description:Research has implicated religious activity as a health determinant, but questions remain, including whether associations persist in places where Judeo-Christian religions are not the majority; whether public versus private religious expressions have equivalent impacts, and the precise advantage expressed as years of life. This article addresses these issues in Taiwan. 3,739 Taiwanese aged 53+ were surveyed in 1999, 2003, and 2007. Mortality and disability were recorded. Religious activities in public and private settings were measured at baseline. Multistate life-tables produced estimates of total life expectancy and activity of daily living (ADL) disability-free life expectancy across levels of public and private religious activity. There is a consistent positive gradient between religious activity and expectancy with greater activity related to longer life and more years without disability. Life and ADL disability-free life expectancies for those with no religious affiliation fit in between the lowest and highest religious activity groups. Results corroborate evidence in the West. Mechanisms that intervene may be similar in Eastern religions despite differences in the ways in which popular religions are practiced. Results for those with no affiliation suggest benefits of religion can be accrued in alternate ways.
| S-EPMC5549130 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundWhile combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has significantly improved survival times for persons diagnosed with HIV, estimation of life expectancy (LE) for this cohort remains a challenge, as mortality rates are a function of both time since diagnosis and age, and mortality rates for the oldest age groups may not be available.MethodsA validated case-finding algorithm for HIV was used to update the cohort of HIV-positive adults who had entered care in Ontario, Canada as of 2012. The Chiang II abridged life table algorithm was modified to use mortality rates stratified by time since entering the cohort and to include various methods for extrapolation of the excess HIV mortality rates to older age groups.ResultsAs of 2012, there were approximately 15,000 adults in care for HIV in Ontario. The crude all-cause mortality rate declined from 2.6% (95%CI 2.3, 2.9) per year in 2000 to 1.3% (1.2, 1.5) in 2012. Mortality rates were elevated for the first year of care compared to subsequent years (rate ratio of 2.6 (95% CI 2.3, 3.1)). LE for a 20-year old living in Ontario was 62 years (expected age at death is 82), while LE for a 20-year old with HIV was estimated to be reduced to 47 years, for a loss of 15 years of life. Ignoring the higher mortality rates among new cases introduced a modest bias of 1.5 additional years of life lost. In comparison, using 55+ as the open-ended age group was a major source of bias, adding 11 years to the calculated LE.ConclusionsUse of age limits less than the expected age at death for the open-ended age group significantly overstates the estimated LE and is not recommended. The Chiang II method easily accommodated input of stratified mortality rates and extrapolation of excess mortality rates.
| S-EPMC5886421 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMelodic expectations were manipulated to investigate the nature of tonally incongruent melodic final notes that may elicit humor in listeners. To our knowledge, this is the first experiment aiming at studying humor elicitation in music with the use of empirical, quantitative methods. To this aim, we have based the experiment on the incongruency/resolution theory of humor and the violations of expectations in music. Our goal was to determine the amount of change, that is, the degree of incongruency required to elicit humor.MethodsWe composed two simple, 8-bar long melodies, and changed their final notes so that they could randomly finish on any semitone between an octave upwards and downwards with respect to the original, tonic final note. This resulted in 25 versions for both melodies, including the original final notes, for each semitone. Musician and non-musician participants rated each version of each melody on five 7-point bipolar scales according to goodness of fit, humor, beauty, playfulness, and pleasantness.Results and conclusionsOur results showed that even a single change of the final note can elicit humor. No strong connection was found between humor elicitation and the level of incongruency (i.e., the amount of violation of expectation). Instead, changes to the major-mode melody were more likely to be found humorous than those to the minor-mode melody, implying that a so-called playful context is necessary for humor elicitation as the major melody was labelled playful by the listeners. Furthermore, final notes below the original tonic end note were also found to be less humorous and less fitting to the melodic context than those above it.
| S-EPMC9526306 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesThe Medicare Health Outcome Survey (HOS) is the largest longitudinal survey of the U.S. community-dwelling elderly population. This study estimated total life expectancy, active life expectancy (ALE), and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) by disability status among HOS participants.MethodsData were from the Medicare HOS Cohort 15 (baseline 2012, follow-up 2014). We included respondents aged ≥ 65 years (n = 164,597). Participants' disability status was assessed based on the following six activities of daily living (ADL): bathing, dressing, eating, getting in or out of chairs, walking, and using the toilet. The multi-state models were used to estimate life expectancy, ALE, and DFLE by participants' baseline disability status and age.ResultsPersons who had higher-level ADL limitations had a shorter life expectancy, ALE, and DFLE. Also persons with disability had greater expected life years with disability than those with no limitations and those with mild limitations. For example, among 65-year old respondents with no limitations, mild limitations, and disability, life expectancy was 19.9, 18.6, and 17.1 years, respectively; ALE was 14.0, 9.5, and 7.2 years, respectively; DFLE was 17.3, 15.2, and 11.4 years, respectively; and expected years with disability was 2.6, 3.4, and 5.7 years, respectively.ConclusionsThis study demonstrated that greater levels of disability adversely impact life expectancy, ALE, DFLE, and expected number of years with a disability among U.S. older adults. Understanding levels of disability, and how these may change over time, would enhance health care quality and planning services related to home care and housing in this community-dwelling population.
| S-EPMC7518583 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHealth financing produce a broad range of healthy life expectancy (HLE) disparities. In West Africa, limited research exists on the association between health financing and HLE at ecological level during a consecutive period of time from the spatial perspectives. This study aimed to determine the existence, quantify the magnitude, and interpret the association between health financing and HLE.MethodsA Dynamic Spatial Durbin model was used to explain the association between HLE and health financing level and structure during 1995-2019 in West Africa. Spatial spillover effects were introduced to interpret the direct and indirect effects caused by health financing level and structure on HLE during the long and short terms.ResultsSpatial dependence and clustering on HLE were observed in West Africa. Although the overall level of total health spending, government health spending, out-of-pocket health spending, and development assistance for health (DAH) increased from 1995 to 2019, government health spending per person experienced a declining trend. Out-of-pocket health spending per total health spending was the highest among other sources of health financing, decreasing from 57% during 1995-1999 to 42% during 2015-2019. Total health spending and out-of-pocket health spending affected HLE positively and negatively in the long term, respectively. Government health spending and prepaid private health spending per person had positive effects on local and adjacent country HLE in the short-term, while DAH had negative effects on the same. The short-term spatial spillover effects of government health spending, DAH, and prepaid private health spending per person were more pronounced than the long-term effects.ConclusionsSpatial variations of HLE existed at country-level in West Africa. Health financing regarding government, non-government, as well as external assistance not only affected HLE disparities at local scale but also among nearby countries. Policymakers should optimise supportive health financing transition policies and narrow the national gap to reduce health disparities and increase HLE. Externalities of policy of those health financing proxies should be took into consideration to promote health equity to improve global health governance.
| S-EPMC10588290 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo estimate the long-term and short-term effects on cigarette demand in Argentina based on changes in cigarette price and income per person >14 years old.MethodPublic data from the Ministry of Economics and Production were analysed based on monthly time series data between 1994 and 2010. The econometric analysis used cigarette consumption per person >14 years of age as the dependent variable and the real income per person >14 years old and the real average price of cigarettes as independent variables. Empirical analyses were done to verify the order of integration of the variables, to test for cointegration to capture the long-term effects and to capture the short-term dynamics of the variables.ResultsThe demand for cigarettes in Argentina was affected by changes in real income and the real average price of cigarettes. The long-term income elasticity was equal to 0.43, while the own-price elasticity was equal to -0.31, indicating a 10% increase in the growth of real income led to an increase in cigarette consumption of 4.3% and a 10% increase in the price produced a fall of 3.1% in cigarette consumption. The vector error correction model estimated that the short-term income elasticity was 0.25 and the short-term own-price elasticity of cigarette demand was -0.15. A simulation exercise showed that increasing the price of cigarettes by 110% would maximise revenues and result in a potentially large decrease in total cigarette consumption.ConclusionEconometric analyses of cigarette consumption and their relationship with cigarette price and income can provide valuable information for developing cigarette price policy.
| S-EPMC4102660 | biostudies-literature