Dataset Information

Can We Predict Oral Antibiotic Treatment Failure in Children with Fast-Breathing Pneumonia Managed at the Community Level? A Prospective Cohort Study in Malawi.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Pneumonia is the leading cause of infectious death amongst children globally, with the highest burden in Africa. Early identification of children at risk of treatment failure in the community and prompt referral could lower mortality. A number of clinical markers have been independently associated with oral antibiotic failure in childhood pneumonia. This study aimed to develop a prognostic model for fast-breathing pneumonia treatment failure in sub-Saharan Africa.

Method

We prospectively followed a cohort of children (2-59 months), diagnosed by community health workers with fast-breathing pneumonia using World Health Organisation (WHO) integrated community case management guidelines. Cases were followed at days 5 and 14 by study data collectors, who assessed a range of pre-determined clinical features for treatment outcome. We built the prognostic model using eight pre-defined parameters, using multivariable logistic regression, validated through bootstrapping.

Results

We assessed 1,542 cases of which 769 were included (32% ineligible; 19% defaulted). The treatment failure rate was 15% at day 5 and relapse was 4% at day 14. Concurrent malaria diagnosis (OR: 1.62; 95% CI: 1.06, 2.47) and moderate malnutrition (OR: 1.88; 95% CI: 1.09, 3.26) were associated with treatment failure. The model demonstrated poor calibration and discrimination (c-statistic: 0.56).

Conclusion

This study suggests that it may be difficult to create a pragmatic community-level prognostic child pneumonia tool based solely on clinical markers and pulse oximetry in an HIV and malaria endemic setting. Further work is needed to identify more accurate and reliable referral algorithms that remain feasible for use by community health workers.

SUBMITTER: King C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4551481 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Can We Predict Oral Antibiotic Treatment Failure in Children with Fast-Breathing Pneumonia Managed at the Community Level? A Prospective Cohort Study in Malawi.

King Carina C McCollum Eric D ED Mankhambo Limangeni L Colbourn Tim T Beard James J Hay Burgess Debbie C DC Costello Anthony A Izadnegahdar Rasa R Lufesi Norman N Masache Gibson G Mwansambo Charles C Nambiar Bejoy B Johnson Eric E Platt Robert R Mukanga David D

PloS one 20150827 8

<h4>Background</h4>Pneumonia is the leading cause of infectious death amongst children globally, with the highest burden in Africa. Early identification of children at risk of treatment failure in the community and prompt referral could lower mortality. A number of clinical markers have been independently associated with oral antibiotic failure in childhood pneumonia. This study aimed to develop a prognostic model for fast-breathing pneumonia treatment failure in sub-Saharan Africa.<h4>Method</h ...[more]

PMID: 26313752

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Project description:BackgroundDue to increasing antimicrobial resistance in low-resource settings, strategies to rationalize antibiotic treatment of children unlikely to have a bacterial infection are needed. This study's objective was to utilize a database of placebo treated Malawian children with World Health Organization (WHO) fast breathing pneumonia to develop a prognostic risk score that could aid antibiotic decision making.MethodsWe conducted a secondary analysis of children randomized to the placebo group of the Innovative Treatments in Pneumonia (ITIP) fast breathing randomized, controlled, noninferiority trial. Participants were low-risk HIV-uninfected children 2-59 months old with WHO fast breathing pneumonia in Lilongwe, Malawi. Study endpoints were treatment failure, defined as either disease progression at any time on or before Day 4 of treatment or disease persistence on Day 4, or relapse, considered as the recurrence of pneumonia or severe disease among previously cured children between Days 5 and 14. We utilized multivariable linear regression and stepwise model selection to develop a model to predict the probability of treatment failure or relapse.ResultsTreatment failure or relapse occurred in 11.5% (61/526) of children included in this analysis. The final model incorporated the following predictors: heart rate terms, mid-upper arm circumference, malaria status, water source, family income, and whether or not a sibling or other child in the household received childcare outside the home. The model's area under the receiver operating characteristic score was 0.712 (95% confidence interval 0.66, 0.78) and it explained 6.1% of the variability in predicting treatment failure or relapse (R2, 0.061). For the model to categorize all children with treatment failure or relapse correctly, 77% of children without treatment failure or relapse would require antibiotics.ConclusionThe model had inadequate discrimination to be appropriate for clinical application. Different strategies will likely be required for models to perform accurately among similar pediatric populations.

Project description:ImportanceAlthough a viral etiology can be detected in most cases of pediatric pneumonia, antibiotic treatment is common. The effectiveness of antibiotics in the outpatient setting for children diagnosed with pneumonia is not known.ObjectiveTo compare outcomes among children diagnosed with pneumonia who were and were not treated with oral antibiotics.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study identified Medicaid-insured children and adolescents 17 years or younger diagnosed with pneumonia and discharged from ambulatory settings in a multistate claims database from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2019. Propensity score matching was used to mitigate confounding. Data were analyzed from August 31, 2023, to August 16, 2024.ExposuresAntibiotic receipt, defined as an oral antibiotic dispensed from a pharmacy on the day of the index visit or on the subsequent day. Children who did not receive antibiotics included those who were not prescribed antibiotics and those who were prescribed antibiotics but did not fill the prescription.Main outcomes and measuresTreatment failure and severe outcomes within 2 to 14 days after the index visit. Treatment failure included hospitalization or ambulatory revisits for pneumonia, new antibiotic dispensation with a same-day ambulatory visit, or complicated pneumonia. Severe outcomes included hospitalization for pneumonia or complicated pneumonia.ResultsAmong the 103 854 children with pneumonia included in the analysis, the median age was 5 (IQR, 2-9) years, and 54 665 (52.6%) were male. Overall, 20 435 children (19.7%) did not receive an antibiotic within 1 day. The propensity score-matched analysis included 40 454 children (20 227 per group). Treatment failure occurred in 2167 children (10.7%) who did not receive antibiotics and 1766 (8.7%) who received antibiotics (risk difference, 1.98 [95% CI, 1.41-2.56] percentage points). Severe outcomes occurred in 234 of 20 435 children (1.1%) who did not receive antibiotics and in 133 of 83 419 (0.7%) who did (risk difference, 0.46 [95% CI, 0.28-0.64] percentage points).Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study of children diagnosed with pneumonia in ambulatory settings, almost 20% did not receive antibiotics within a day of diagnosis. Although not receiving antibiotics was associated with a small increase in the risk of treatment failure, severe outcomes were uncommon regardless of whether antibiotics were received. These results suggest that some children diagnosed with pneumonia can likely be managed without antibiotics and highlight the need for prospective studies to identify these children.

Project description:BackgroundPneumonia is a leading cause of mortality in children <5 years globally. Early identification of hospitalized children with pneumonia who may fail antibiotics could improve outcomes. We conducted a secondary analysis from the Malawi CPAP IMPACT trial evaluating risk factors for antibiotic failure among children hospitalized with pneumonia.MethodsParticipants were 1-59 months old with World Health Organization-defined severe pneumonia and hypoxemia, severe malnutrition, and/or HIV exposure/infection. All participants received intravenous antibiotics per standard care. First-line antibiotics were benzylpenicillin and gentamicin for five days. Study staff assessed patients for first-line antibiotic failure daily between days 3-6. When identified, patients failing antibiotics were switched to second-line ceftriaxone. Analyses excluded children receiving ceftriaxone and/or deceased by hospital day two. We compared characteristics between patients with and without treatment failure and fit multivariable logistic regression models to evaluate associations between treatment failure and admission characteristics.ResultsFrom June 2015-March 2018, 644 children were enrolled and 538 analyzed. Antibiotic failure was identified in 251 (46.7%) participants, and 19/251 (7.6%) died. Treatment failure occurred more frequently with severe malnutrition (50.2% (126/251) vs 28.2% (81/287), p<0.001) and amongst those dwelling ≥10km from a health facility (22.3% (56/251) vs 15.3% (44/287), p = 0.026). Severe malnutrition occurred more frequently among children living ≥10km from a health facility than those living <10km (49.0% (49/100) vs 35.7% (275/428), p = 0.014). Children with severe malnutrition (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.2 (95% CI 1.52, 3.24), p<0.001) and pre-hospital antibiotics ((aOR 1.47, 95% CI 1.01, 2.14), p = 0.043) had an elevated aOR for antibiotic treatment failure.ConclusionSevere malnutrition and pre-hospital antibiotic use predicted antibiotic treatment failure in this high-risk severe pneumonia pediatric population in Malawi. Our findings suggest addressing complex sociomedical conditions like severe malnutrition and improving pneumonia etiology diagnostics will be key for better targeting interventions to improve childhood pneumonia outcomes.

Project description:BackgroundPneumonia remains the leading cause of paediatric infectious mortality globally. Treatment failure, which can result from non-adherence to oral antibiotics, can lead to poor outcomes and therefore improving adherence could be a strategy to reduce pneumonia related morbidity and mortality. However, there is little published evidence from low-resource settings for the drivers of non-adherence to oral antibiotics in children.ObjectiveWe aimed to investigate reasons for adherence and non-adherence in children diagnosed and treated in the community with fast-breathing pneumonia in rural Malawi.MethodsWe conducted focus group discussions (FGDs) with caregivers of children known to have been diagnosed and treated with oral antibiotics for fast-breathing pneumonia in the community and key informant interviews with community healthcare workers (CHW). FGDs and interviews were conducted within communities in Chichewa, the local language. We used a framework approach to analyze the transcripts.ResultsWe conducted 4 FGDs with caregivers and 10 interviews with CHWs. We identified four themes, which were common across caregivers and CHWs: knowledge and understanding, effort, medication perceptions and community influences. Caregivers and CHWs demonstrated good knowledge of pneumonia and types of treatment, but caregivers showed confusion around dosing and treatment durations. Effort was needed to seek care, prepare medication and understand regimens, acting as a barrier to adherence. Perceptions of how well the treatment was working influenced adherence, with both quick recovery and slow recovery leading to non-adherence. Community influences were both supportive, with transport assistance for referrals and home visits to improve adherence, and detrimental, with pressure to share treatments.ConclusionAdherence to oral antibiotic treatment for fast-breathing pneumonia was understood to be important, however considerable barriers we described within this rural low-resource setting, such as the effort preparing and administering medication, community pressures to share drugs and potential complexity of regimens.

Dataset Information

Can We Predict Oral Antibiotic Treatment Failure in Children with Fast-Breathing Pneumonia Managed at the Community Level? A Prospective Cohort Study in Malawi.

Background

Method

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Can We Predict Oral Antibiotic Treatment Failure in Children with Fast-Breathing Pneumonia Managed at the Community Level? A Prospective Cohort Study in Malawi.

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