Dataset Information

A model to predict survival following pancreaticoduodenectomy for malignancy based on tumour site, stage and lymph node ratio.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Site of tumour origin, lymph node metastases and lymph node ratio (LNR) are identified as important factors determining prognosis in patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). This study hypothesised that a prognostic index to predict survival could be developed through statistical modelling based on these pathological variables.

Methods

Patients who underwent PD between 2004 and 2013 were included. Univariable and multivariable (Cox regression) analyses were performed to identify predictors of survival, and a prognostic index was derived. The prognostic index was then validated using an external patient cohort.

Results

A total of 567 patients who underwent PD were used as a derivation cohort. Tumour site (p < 0.001), tumour size (p = 0.002), T-stage (p < 0.001), vascular involvement (p = 0.002), number of positive nodes (p < 0.001) and LNR (p < 0.001) were significantly associated with survival in univariable analysis. LNR (p < 0.001), tumour site (p < 0.001), T-stage (p = 0.007) remained significant predictors of survival in multivariable analysis, and were combined to derive a prognostic index. The accuracy of the prognostic index was assessed both on the original cohort, and a validation set of 194 patients from another institutional prospective database. The AUROC scores for predicting the overall survival at 3 years were 0.77 in the derivation cohort and 0.74 in the validation cohort.

Conclusion

The Pancreaticoduodenectomy Prognostic Index is a validated clinico-pathological model based on tumour site, T-stage and LNR to predict long-term survival following PD.

SUBMITTER: Dasari BV

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4814610 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

A model to predict survival following pancreaticoduodenectomy for malignancy based on tumour site, stage and lymph node ratio.

Dasari Bobby V M BV Roberts Keith J KJ Hodson James J Stevens Lewis L Smith Andrew M AM Hubscher Stefan G SG Isaac John J Muiesan Paolo P Sutcliffe Robert P RP Marudanayagam Ravi R Mirza Darius F DF

HPB : the official journal of the International Hepato Pancreato Biliary Association 20160224 4

<h4>Background</h4>Site of tumour origin, lymph node metastases and lymph node ratio (LNR) are identified as important factors determining prognosis in patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). This study hypothesised that a prognostic index to predict survival could be developed through statistical modelling based on these pathological variables.<h4>Methods</h4>Patients who underwent PD between 2004 and 2013 were included. Univariable and multivariable (Cox regression) analyses were per ...[more]

PMID: 27037202

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Project description:BackgroundPancreaticoduodenectomy is the only definitively curative therapy for the long-term survival of distal cholangiocarcinoma patients. Lymph node metastasis is widely accepted as an important prognostic factor for distal cholangiocarcinoma. The latest American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM classification system for distal cholangiocarcinoma has divided the lymph node metastasis patients into N1 and N2 by lymph node metastasis number. However, some studies suggested that the lymph node metastasis ratio may be better than the lymph node metastasis number. Therefore, we develop a program to analyze the correlation between lymph node parameters (lymph node dissection number, lymph node metastasis number, and lymph node metastasis rate) and long-term prognosis.MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed 123 distal cholangiocarcinoma patients after pancreatoduodenectomy from January 2011 to December 2019. The patients were grouped according to lymph node metastases and tumor-free and overall survival rates which were investigated with the Kaplan-Meier analysis. The logistic regression models were used for multivariate analysis to determine the risk factors for lymph node metastases. And the X-tile program was used to calculate the cutoff values for the lymph node parameters that discriminated survival.ResultsThe 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year overall survival rates of patients with distal cholangiocarcinoma after pancreatoduodenectomy were 75.2%, 37.1%, and 31.5%, respectively. And the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year overall survival rates of patients without and with lymph node metastasis were 83.0%, 50.7%, and 42.5% and 63.5%, 19.0%, and 19.0% (p = 0.000), respectively. Logistic regression showed CA19-9 and portal vein system invasion as independent risk factors for lymph node metastases. The receiver operating characteristic curve showed the optimal cutoff value of CA19-9 to predict the lymph node metastases was 75.5 U/mL. Determined by the X-tile software, the optimal cutoff values of the lymph node dissection number were 24 (p = 0.021), the lymph node metastasis number were 1 and 7 (p = 0.504), and the lymph node metastasis rate were 0.13 (p = 0.002).ConclusionLymph node metastasis is an important factor affecting the long-term survival of distal cholangiocarcinoma patients.CA19-9 and portal vein system invasion are independent risk factors for lymph node metastasis. Besides, the lymph node dissection number and lymph node metastasis rate can predict the long-term survival better than lymph node metastasis number.

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Dataset Information

A model to predict survival following pancreaticoduodenectomy for malignancy based on tumour site, stage and lymph node ratio.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

A model to predict survival following pancreaticoduodenectomy for malignancy based on tumour site, stage and lymph node ratio.

Similar Datasets

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