Dataset Information

Nomograms for predicting long-term survival in patients with non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma in an endemic area.

ABSTRACT:

Purpose

Nomogram for predicting more than a 5-year survival for non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) was lacking. This study aimed to develop the new nomograms to predict long-term survival in these patients.

Results

The median follow-up time for training set and test set was 95.2 months and 133.3 months, respectively. The significant predictors for death were age, gender, body mass index (BMI), T stage, N stage, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and radiotherapy techniques. For predicting recurrence, age, gender, T stage, LDH, and radiotherapy techniques were significant predictors, whereas age, gender, BMI, T stage, N stage and LDH were significant predictors for distant metastasis. The calibration curves showed the good agreements between nomogram-predicted and actual survival. The c-indices for predicting death, recurrence, and distant metastases between nomograms and the TNM staging system were 0.767 VS.0.686 (P<0.001), 0.655 VS.0.585 (P<0.001), and 0.881 VS.0.754 (P<0.001), respectively. These results were further confirmed in the test set.

Methods

On the basis of a retrospective study of 1593 patients (training set) who received radiotherapy alone or concurrent chemoradiotherapy from 2000 to 2004, significant predictors were identified and incorporated to build the nomograms. The calibration curves of nomogram-predicted survival versus the actual survival were plotted and reviewed. Bootstrap validation was performed to calculate the concordance index (c-index). These models were further validated in an independent prospective trial (test set, n=400).

Conclusion

The established nomograms suggest more-accurate long-term prediction for patients with non-metastatic NPC.

SUBMITTER: Zeng Q

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5045427 | biostudies-literature | 2016 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Nomograms for predicting long-term survival in patients with non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma in an endemic area.

Zeng Qi Q Hong Ming-Huang MH Shen Lu-Jun LJ Meng Xiang-Qi XQ Guo Xiang X Qian Chao-Nan CN Wu Pei-Hong PH Huang Pei-Yu PY

Oncotarget 20160501 20

<h4>Purpose</h4>Nomogram for predicting more than a 5-year survival for non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) was lacking. This study aimed to develop the new nomograms to predict long-term survival in these patients.<h4>Results</h4>The median follow-up time for training set and test set was 95.2 months and 133.3 months, respectively. The significant predictors for death were age, gender, body mass index (BMI), T stage, N stage, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and radiotherapy techniques. F ...[more]

PMID: 27102440

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Project description:ImportanceThe treatment of metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (mNPC) is a major challenge because of drug resistance and the toxic effects of chemotherapy.ObjectiveTo evaluate the survival and toxicity outcomes and safety associated with the use of a modified low-dose fluorouracil protocol compared with standard regimens recommended in current guidelines for treatment of mNPC.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study was based on data retrieved from electronic medical records from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center in China for 1397 patients with mNPC diagnosed from January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2017. Data analyses were conducted from October 1, 2020, to May 1, 2021.ExposuresPatients received chemotherapy, including platinum plus low-dose, long-term fluorouracil (PFLL); cisplatin plus standard dose, short-term fluorouracil (PFSS); cisplatin plus gemcitabine (GP); cisplatin plus taxane (TP); and cisplatin plus taxane plus fluorouracil (TPF).Main outcomes and measuresThe main outcomes included overall survival (OS); subsequent-line, treatment-free survival (sTFS), defined as the period from metastasis to the date requiring subsequent-line treatment or death; and the survival to toxicity ratio (STR), defined as person-year rate of OS divided by person-year rate of severe hematologic toxic effects. Cox regression models were used to compare the outcomes of patients receiving PFLL vs other regimens, adjusting for baseline characteristics.ResultsOf 1397 patients with mNPC included in this study (1152 men; median age, 46 years [range, 18-70 years]) 134 received PFLL, 203 received GP, 330 received PFSS, 366 received TP, and 364 received TPF. A total of 764 patients died (75 in treatment group PFLL; 107 in group GP; 204 in group PFSS; 207 in group TP; and 171 in group TPF), and 979 patients had subsequent-line treatment or died, whichever occurred first (PFLL, 77; GP, 144; PFSS, 262; TP, 269; and TPF, 227). The median follow-up was 46.9 months (IQR, 25.4-82.4 months), and the 5-year OS rate among patients who received PFLL was 25.4% (95% CI, 16.7%-38.8%), which was not significantly different from that among patients who did not receive PFLL (30.2%; 95% CI, 27.1%-33.5%; P = .13) or who received GP (25.1%; 95% CI, 18.1%-35.0%; P = .81), PFSS (23.6%; 95% CI, 18.5%-30.0%; P = .80), or TP (28.1%; 95% CI, 22.8%-34.7%; P = .99) but was lower than that for patients who received TPF (40.4%; 95% CI, 34.7%-47.1%; P = .001). The 5-year sTFS among patients who received PFLL (24.1%; 95% CI, 15.4%-37.6%) was significantly higher than that among patients who did not receive PFLL (18.5%; 95% CI, 16.1%-21.3%; P = .005) or who received GP (14.3%; 95% CI, 9.1%-22.5%; P = .001) but similar to that for patients who received TPF (28.0%; 95% CI, 23.0%-34.0%; P = .74). The STR of PFLL was 0.81, substantially better than that of GP (0.41) and TPF (0.65).Conclusions and relevanceThe results of this cohort study suggest that, compared with the use of standard treatment regimens, administration of PFLL was associated with similar OS but prolonged sTFS. PFLL also had better STR than other regimens, which could indicate less severe toxic effects. Thus, PFLL may be an option for first-line treatment of mNPC.

Dataset Information

Nomograms for predicting long-term survival in patients with non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma in an endemic area.

Purpose

Results

Methods

Conclusion

Publications

Nomograms for predicting long-term survival in patients with non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma in an endemic area.

Similar Datasets

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