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Risk aversion connectedness in developed and emerging equity markets before and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

ABSTRACT: This study investigates the dynamic connectedness across the variance risk premium in international developed and emerging equity markets based on a Bayesian time-varying parameter vector autoregressive methodology. The empirical results indicate that the total spillover index is on average 65.6%, indicating a high, albeit declining, level of interconnectedness across the investor sentiment in the three markets under review until early 2020. Following the COVID-19 outbreak though, the total investors' risk aversion connectedness - as expected - strengthens, but more importantly, its dynamics alter, indicating that the risk aversion of emerging markets is an important contributor to the connectedness of international markets.

SUBMITTER: Fassas AP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7744712 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Risk aversion connectedness in developed and emerging equity markets before and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Fassas Athanasios P AP

Heliyon 20201213 12

This study investigates the dynamic connectedness across the variance risk premium in international developed and emerging equity markets based on a Bayesian time-varying parameter vector autoregressive methodology. The empirical results indicate that the total spillover index is on average 65.6%, indicating a high, albeit declining, level of interconnectedness across the investor sentiment in the three markets under review until early 2020. Following the COVID-19 outbreak though, the total inve ...[more]

PMID: 33354633

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Project description:ImportancePrivate equity (PE) firms have invested in and consolidated dermatology practices. Private equity firms typically operate by conducting leveraged buyouts, which occur when target companies are acquired with capital from PE firms and a combination of debt, which may include debt instruments held in business development corporations (BDCs).ObjectiveTo investigate the valuations of dermatology PE-backed group (DPEG) debt instruments in BDCs' portfolios both before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study, conducted from August 1, 2016, to August 31, 2021, examined public financial statements filed by BDCs lending to DPEGs. The public filings of BDCs were searched from inception of the DPEG's debt instrument in a BDC's portfolio, and the amortized cost and fair value of each debt instrument were tabulated.Main outcomes and measuresThe premium or discount at which each debt instrument was valued at a given time was calculated by dividing the difference between the fair value and the amortized cost by the amortized cost. Different testing methods were conducted for normal or nonnormal data to test differences in debt valuations across all DPEGs between 2 consecutive or nonconsecutive quarters.ResultsThe search of the public filings found 10 BDCs containing data on 9 unique DPEGs. Overall, there were 15 trackable DPEG debt instruments because multiple BDCs can hold debt instruments for a given DPEG. Data were available from August 2016 through August 2021. During the study time frame, the amortized cost of the loans for an individual DPEG ranged from a low of $1.7 million to a high of $100 million. The valuation of debt instruments was stable for many DPEGs until some were discounted starting in May 2018, with a significant decrease from May 2019 to August 2019 (-1.4%; 95% CI, not applicable; P = .04), prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Another significant decrease occurred during the pandemic from February to June 2020 (-9.0%; 95% CI, -13.6% to -4.4%; P = .002). US Dermatology Partners decreased to the lowest valuation (Golub BDC, -39.7%; TCG BDC Inc, -48.8%; TCG BDC II, -48.8%) of the DPEGs examined in November 2020 even after receiving a $10 million forgivable Small Business Administration Paycheck Protection Program loan in May 2020. After pharmaceutical companies announced effective COVID-19 vaccine candidates in November 2020, there was a modest and significant improvement in debt valuations (2.3%; 95% CI, 0.2%-0.4%; P = .03); however, they remained discounted. Only PhyNet Dermatology's debt instruments improved to a premium valuation by August 2021.Conclusions and relevanceDebt valuations of some DPEGs found in this cross-sectional study suggest a lower probability that their loans will be repaid in full. This could be a signal that some DPEGs are not performing well financially.

Dataset Information

Risk aversion connectedness in developed and emerging equity markets before and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Publications

Risk aversion connectedness in developed and emerging equity markets before and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

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