Change in outbreak epicentre and its impact on the importation risks of COVID-19 progression: A modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) that was first detected in the city of Wuhan, China has now spread to every inhabitable continent, but now the attention has shifted from China to other epicentres. This study explored early assessment of the influence of spatial proximities and travel patterns from Italy on the further spread of SARS-CoV-2 worldwide.

Methods

Using data on the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and air travel data between countries, we applied a stochastic meta-population model to estimate the global spread of COVID-19. Pearson's correlation, semi-variogram, and Moran's Index were used to examine the association and spatial autocorrelation between the number of COVID-19 cases and travel influx (and arr

SUBMITTER: Adegboye OA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7871106 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar-Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature