Dataset Information

Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence Beyond Milan Criteria After Resection: Validation of a Clinical Risk Score in an International Cohort.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

This study aims to validate a previously reported recurrence clinical risk score (CRS).

Summary of background data

Salvage transplantation after hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) resection is limited to patients who recur within Milan criteria (MC). Predicting recurrence patterns may guide treatment recommendations.

Methods

An international, multicenter cohort of R0 resected HCC patients were categorized by MC status at presentation. CRS was calculated by assigning 1 point each for initial disease beyond MC, multinodularity, and microvascular invasion. Recurrence incidences were estimated using competing risks methodology, and conditional recurrence probabilities were estimated using the Bayes theorem.

Results

From 1992 to 2015, 1023 patients were identified, of whom 613 (60%) recurred at a median follow-up of 50 months. CRS was well validated in that all 3 factors remained independent predictors of recurrence beyond MC (hazard ratio 1.5-2.1, all P < 0.001) and accurately stratified recurrence risk beyond MC, ranging from 19% (CRS 0) to 67% (CRS 3) at 5 years. Among patients with CRS 0, no other factors were significantly associated with recurrence beyond MC. The majority recurred within 2 years. After 2 years of recurrence-free survival, the cumulative risk of recurrence beyond MC within the next 5 years for all patients was 14%. This risk was 12% for patients with initial disease within MC and 17% for patients with initial disease beyond MC.

Conclusions

CRS accurately predicted HCC recurrence beyond MC in this international validation. Although the risk of recurrence beyond MC decreased over time, it never reached zero.

SUBMITTER: Zheng J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8404085 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:Introduction: Several attempts have been made to expand the indications of liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond Milan criteria. We aimed to define genomic features that enable the identification of patients with HCC beyond Milan criteria who have acceptable transplant outcomes. Methods: Among 770 consecutive HCC patients transplanted at Mount Sinai Hospital and Mayo Clinic between 1990 and 2013, 132 had tumors exceeding Milan criteria on pathology and were enrolled in the study. Explant tumors were analyzed to assess genomic signatures of poor prognosis and immunohistochemical markers associated with tumor recurrence and overall survival. Results: Most of the patients were males (80%) and HCV positive (71%) with a median age of 56. HCC beyond Milan criteria was defined pre-operative in 67%. On pathology, 44% of the patients satisfied the ‘up-to-7 rule’. At a median follow-up of 88 months, 64 patients had died and 45 recurred; the 5-year overall survival (OS) and recurrence rates were 57% and 35%, respectively. CK19 gene signature was independently associated with recurrence (HR=2.95, p<0.001), along with tumor size >5 cm (HR=3.37, p=0.023) and presence of satellite lesions (HR=2.98, p=0.001). S2 subclass signature, which is known to be associated with progenitor cell markers, was independently associated with poor OS (HR=3.18, p=0.001), along with tumor size >5 cm (HR=5.06, p<0.001) and outside up-to-seven rule (HR=2.50, p=0.002). Using the presence of markers of progenitor cells (either CK19 or S2 subclass signatures) patients may be classified into poor-prognosis (n=58; 5-year recurrence 53%, survival 45%) and good-prognosis subgroups (n=74; 5-year recurrence 19%, survival 67%) (HR=3.16, p<0.001 for recurrence, and HR=1.72, p=0.04 for OS). Conclusion: Gene signatures associated with progenitor cell markers (CK19 and S2 subclass signatures) define outcome of HCC patients beyond Milan criteria after transplantation. Patients without these signatures achieve survival rates similar as those patients within Milan criteria. Once prospectively validated, these markers may provide the rationale for a limited expansion of liver transplantation indications.