Dataset Information

Development of a fertility risk calculator to predict individualized chance of ovarian failure after chemotherapy.

ABSTRACT:

Purpose

To develop an innovative machine learning (ML) model that predicts personalized risk of primary ovarian insufficiency (POI) after chemotherapy for reproductive-aged women. Currently, individualized prediction of a patient's risk of POI is challenging.

Methods

Authors of published studies examining POI after gonadotoxic therapy were contacted, and six authors shared their de-identified data (N = 435). A composite outcome for POI was determined for each patient and validated by 3 authors. The primary dataset was partitioned into training and test sets; random forest binary classifiers were trained, and mean prediction scores were computed. Institutional data collected from a cross-sectional survey of cancer survivors (N = 117) was used as another independent validation set.

Results

Our model predicted individualized risk of POI with an accuracy of 88% (area under the ROC 0.87, 95% CI: 0.77-0.96; p < 0.001). Mean prediction scores for patients who developed POI and who did not were 0.60 and 0.38 (t-test p < 0.001), respectively. Highly weighted variables included age, chemotherapy dose, prior treatment, smoking, and baseline diminished ovarian reserve.

Conclusion

We developed an ML-based model to estimate personalized risk of POI after chemotherapy. Our web-based calculator will be a user-friendly decision aid for individualizing risk prediction in oncofertility consultations.

SUBMITTER: Chung EH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8609057 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Development of a fertility risk calculator to predict individualized chance of ovarian failure after chemotherapy.

Chung Esther H EH Acharya Chaitanya R CR Harris Benjamin S BS Acharya Kelly S KS

Journal of assisted reproduction and genetics 20210908 11

<h4>Purpose</h4>To develop an innovative machine learning (ML) model that predicts personalized risk of primary ovarian insufficiency (POI) after chemotherapy for reproductive-aged women. Currently, individualized prediction of a patient's risk of POI is challenging.<h4>Methods</h4>Authors of published studies examining POI after gonadotoxic therapy were contacted, and six authors shared their de-identified data (N = 435). A composite outcome for POI was determined for each patient and validated ...[more]

PMID: 34495476

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Project description:BackgroundTreatment options for premature ovarian insufficiency (POI) are limited to hormone replacement and donor oocytes. A novel induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC) transplant paradigm in a mouse model has potential translational applications for management of POI.MethodsMouse ovarian granulosa cell derived-iPSCS were labelled with green fluorescent protein (GFP) reporter and differentiated in vitro into oocytes. Differentiated cells were assayed for estradiol and progesterone secretion by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. After Fluorescence-Activated Cell Sorting (FACS) for the cell surface marker anti-Mullerian hormone receptor (AMHR2), enriched populations of differentiated cells were surgically transplanted into ovaries of mice that had POI secondary to gonadotoxic pre-treatment with alkylating agents. A total of 100 mice were used in these studies in five separate experiments with 56 animals receiving orthotopic ovarian injections of either FACS sorted or unsorted differentiated iPSCSs and the remaining animals receiving sham injections of PBS diluent. Following transplantation surgery, mice were stimulated with gonadotropins inducing oocyte development and underwent oocyte retrieval. Nine transplanted mice were cross bred with wild-type mice to assess fertility. Lineage tracing of resultant oocytes, F1 (30 pups), and F2 (42 pups) litters was interrogated by GFP expression and validation by short tandem repeat (STR) lineage tracing.Findings[1] iPSCs differentiate into functional oocytes and steroidogenic ovarian cells which [2] express an ovarian (GJA1) and germ cell (ZP1) markers. [3] Endocrine function and fertility were restored in mice pretreated with gonadotoxic alkylating agents via orthotopic transplantation of differentiated iPSCS, thus generating viable, fertile mouse pups.InterpretationiPSC-derived ovarian tissue can reverse endocrine and reproductive sequelae of POI.FundingCenter for Infertility and Reproductive Surgery Research Award, Siezen Foundation award (RMA). Reproductive Scientist Development Program, Marriott Foundation, Saltonstall Foundation, Brigham Ovarian Cancer Research Fund (K.E).

Project description:BackgroundConditional survival (CS) provides dynamic prognostic estimates by considering the patients existing survival time. Since CS for endemic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is lacking, we aimed to assess the CS of endemic NPC and establish a web-based calculator to predict individualized, conditional site-specific recurrence risk.MethodsUsing an NPC-specific database with a big-data intelligence platform, 10,058 endemic patients with non-metastatic stage I-IVA NPC receiving intensity-modulated radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy between April 2009 and December 2015 were investigated. Crude CS estimates of conditional overall survival (COS), conditional disease-free survival (CDFS), conditional locoregional relapse-free survival (CLRRFS), conditional distant metastasis-free survival (CDMFS), and conditional NPC-specific survival (CNPC-SS) were calculated. Covariate-adjusted CS estimates were generated using inverse probability weighting. A prediction model was established using competing risk models and was externally validated with an independent, non-metastatic stage I-IVA NPC cohort undergoing intensity-modulated radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy (n = 601) at another institution.ResultsThe median follow-up of the primary cohort was 67.2 months. The 5-year COS, CDFS, CLRRFS, CDMFS, and CNPC-SS increased from 86.2%, 78.1%, 89.8%, 87.3%, and 87.6% at diagnosis to 87.3%, 87.7%, 94.4%, 96.0%, and 90.1%, respectively, for an existing survival time of 3 years since diagnosis. Differences in CS estimates between prognostic factor subgroups of each endpoint were noticeable at diagnosis but diminished with time, whereas an ever-increasing disparity in CS between different age subgroups was observed over time. Notably, the prognoses of patients that were poor at diagnosis improved greatly as patients survived longer. For individualized CS predictions, we developed a web-based model to estimate the conditional risk of local (C-index, 0.656), regional (0.667), bone (0.742), lung (0.681), and liver (0.711) recurrence, which significantly outperformed the current staging system (P < 0.001). The performance of this web-based model was further validated using an external validation cohort (median follow-up, 61.3 months), with C-indices of 0.672, 0.736, 0.754, 0.663, and 0.721, respectively.ConclusionsWe characterized the CS of endemic NPC in the largest cohort to date. Moreover, we established a web-based calculator to predict the CS of site-specific recurrence, which may help to tailor individualized, risk-based, time-adapted follow-up strategies.

Project description:Study questionCan host fertility be rescued by grafting of a fragment of a healthy ovary soon after chemotherapy?Summary answerWe found that grafting a green fluorescent protein (GFP)-positive fragment from a healthy isogenic ovary to the left ovary of a chemo-treated host rescued function and fertility of the grafted host ovary, and resulted in the production of host-derived offspring as late as the sixth litter after chemotherapy (CTx) treatment, whereas none of the ungrafted controls produced a second litter.What is known alreadyIn women and girls undergoing chemotherapy, infertility and premature ovarian failure are frequent outcomes. There are accumulating reports of improved endocrine function after autotransplantation of an ovarian fragment, raising the possibility that the transplant is beneficial to the endogenous ovary.Study design, size, durationWe first established a CTx treatment regimen that resulted in the permanent loss of fertility in 100% of female mice of the FVB inbred strain. We grafted an isogenic ovary fragment from a healthy female homozygous for a GFP transgene to the left ovary of 100 CTx-treated hosts, and compared fertility to 39 ungrafted controls in 6 months of continuous matings, using GFP to distinguish offspring derived from the graft, and those derived from the host.Participants/materials, setting, methodsImmunofluoresece and western blot analysis of 39 treated ovaries during and 15 days after CTx treatment revealed elevated apoptosis, rapid loss of granulosa cells and an increased recruitment of growing follicles. Using immunofluorescence and confocal imaging, we tracked the outcome of the grafted tissue over 4 months and its effect on the adjacent and contralateral ovary of the host.Main results and the role of chanceFifty-three percent of grafted females produced a second litter whereas none of the ungrafted females produced a second litter. The likelihood that this could occur by chance is very low (P < 0.0001).Limitations, reasons for cautionThese results are shown only in mice, and whether or how they might apply to chemotherapy patients subjected to different CTx regimens is not yet clear.Wider implications of the findingsOur experiments prove that rescue of a chemo-treated ovary is possible, and establish a system to investigate the mechanism of rescue and to identify the factors responsible with the long-term goal of developing therapies for preservation of ovarian endocrine function and fertility in women undergoing chemotherapy.Large scale dataNo large datasets were produced.Study funding/competing interestsDuke University Medical Center Chancellor's Discovery Grant to BC; ESJ was supported by an NRSA 5F31CA165545; SK was supported by NIH RO1 GM08033; RWT was supported by the Duke University School of Medicine Ovarian Cancer Research Fellowship; XBM was supported by CONICYT. The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.

Project description:AimsFluoropyrimidine chemotherapy is important for treatment of many solid tumours but is associated with cardiotoxicity. The relationship of fluoropyrimidine-associated cardiotoxicity (FAC) with conventional cardiovascular (CV) risk factors is poorly understood, and standard cardiovascular risk scores are not validated in this context.Methods and resultsSingle-centre retrospective study of patients treated with fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy using electronic health records for cardiovascular risk factors (and calculation of QRISK3 score), cancer treatment, and clinical outcomes. FAC was defined by cardiovascular events during or within 3 months of fluoropyrimidine treatment, and Cox regression was used to assess associations of CV risk and cancer treatment with FAC. One thousand eight hundred ninety-eight patients were included (45% male; median age 64 years), with median follow up 24.5 (11.5-48.3 months); 52.7% of patients were at moderate or high baseline CV risk (QRISK3 score >10%) Cardiovascular events occurred in 3.1% (59/1898)-most commonly angina (64.4%, 38/59) and atrial fibrillation (13.6%, 8/59), with 39% events during cycle one of treatment. In univariable analysis, QRISK3 score >20% was significantly associated with incident FAC (HR 2.25, 95% CI 1.11-4.93, P = 0.03). On multivariable analysis, beta-blocker use (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00-1.08, P = 0.04) and higher BMI (HR 2.33, 95% CI 1.04-5.19, P = 0.04) were independently associated with incident CV events. Thirty-two of the 59 patients with FAC were subsequently rechallenged with fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy, with repeat CV events in 6% (2/32). Incident FAC did not affect overall survival (P = 0.50).ConclusionsHigh BMI and use of beta-blockers are associated with risk of CV events during fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy. QRISK3 score may also play a role in identifying patients at high risk of CV events during fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy. Re-challenge with further fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy can be considered in patients following CV events during prior treatment.

Project description:Premature ovarian failure (POF) is an insidious cause of female infertility and a devastating condition for women. POF also has a strong familial and heterogeneous genetic background. Management of POF is complicated by the variable etiology and presentation, which are generally characterized by abnormal hormone levels, gene instability and ovarian dysgenesis. To date, abnormal regulation associated with POF has been found in a small number of genes, including autosomal and sex chromosomal genes in folliculogenesis, granulosa cells, and oocytes. Due to the complex genomic contributions, ascertaining the exact causative mechanisms has been challenging in POF, and many pathogenic genomic characteristics have yet to be elucidated. However, emerging research has provided new insights into genomic variation in POF as well as novel etiological factors, pathogenic mechanisms and therapeutic intervention approaches. Meanwhile, scattered studies of transcriptional regulation revealed that ovarian cell function also depends on specific biomarker gene expression, which can influence protein activities, thus causing POF. In this review, we summarized the latest research and issues related to the genomic basis for POF and focused on insights gained from their biological effects and pathogenic mechanisms in POF. The present integrated studies of genomic variants, gene expression and related protein abnormalities were structured to establish the role of etiological genes associated with POF. In addition, we describe the design of some ongoing clinical trials that may suggest safe, feasible and effective approaches to improve the diagnosis and therapy of POF, such as Filgrastim, goserelin, resveratrol, natural plant antitoxin, Kuntai capsule et al. Understanding the candidate genomic characteristics in POF is beneficial for the early diagnosis of POF and provides appropriate methods for prevention and drug treatment. Additional efforts to clarify the POF genetic background are necessary and are beneficial for researchers and clinicians regarding genetic counseling and clinical practice. Taken together, recent genomic explorations have shown great potential to elucidate POF management in women and are stepping from the bench to the bedside.

Dataset Information

Development of a fertility risk calculator to predict individualized chance of ovarian failure after chemotherapy.

Purpose

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Development of a fertility risk calculator to predict individualized chance of ovarian failure after chemotherapy.

Similar Datasets

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