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ABSTRACT: Background
The WHO ordinal severity scale has been used to predict mortality and guide trials in COVID-19. However, it has its limitations.Objective
The present study aims to compare three classificatory and predictive models: the WHO ordinal severity scale, the model based on inflammation grades, and the hybrid model.Design
Retrospective cohort study with patient data collected and followed up from March 1, 2020, to May 1, 2021, from the nationwide SEMI-COVID-19 Registry. The primary study outcome was in-hospital mortality. As this was a hospital-based study, the patients included corresponded to categories 3 to 7 of the WHO ordinal scale. Categories 6 and 7 were grouped in the same category.Key results
A total of 17,225 patients were included in the study. Patients classified as high risk in each of the WHO categories according to the degree of inflammation were as follows: 63.8% vs. 79.9% vs. 90.2% vs. 95.1% (p<0.001). In-hospital mortality for WHO ordinal scale categories 3 to 6/7 was as follows: 0.8% vs. 24.3% vs. 45.3% vs. 34% (p<0.001). In-hospital mortality for the combined categories of ordinal scale 3a to 5b was as follows: 0.4% vs. 1.1% vs. 11.2% vs. 27.5% vs. 35.5% vs. 41.1% (p<0.001). The predictive regression model for in-hospital mortality with our proposed combined ordinal scale reached an AUC=0.871, superior to the two models separately.Conclusions
The present study proposes a new severity grading scale for COVID-19 hospitalized patients. In our opinion, it is the most informative, representative, and predictive scale in COVID-19 patients to date.
SUBMITTER: Rubio-Rivas M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8992782 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jun
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Rubio-Rivas Manuel M Mora-Luján José María JM Formiga Francesc F Arévalo-Cañas Coral C Lebrón Ramos Juan Manuel JM Villalba García María Victoria MV Fonseca Aizpuru Eva Mª EM Díez-Manglano Jesús J Arnalich Fernández Francisco F Romero Cabrera Juan Luis JL García García Gema María GM Pesqueira Fontan Paula M PM Vargas Núñez Juan Antonio JA Freire Castro Santiago Jesús SJ Loureiro Amigo José J Pascual Pérez Maria de Los Reyes MLR Alcalá Pedrajas José N JN Encinas-Sánchez Daniel D Mella Pérez Carmen C Ena Javier J Gracia Gutiérrez Anyuli A Esteban Giner María José MJ Varona José F JF Millán Núñez-Cortés Jesús J Casas-Rojo José-Manuel JM
Journal of general internal medicine 20220408 8
<h4>Background</h4>The WHO ordinal severity scale has been used to predict mortality and guide trials in COVID-19. However, it has its limitations.<h4>Objective</h4>The present study aims to compare three classificatory and predictive models: the WHO ordinal severity scale, the model based on inflammation grades, and the hybrid model.<h4>Design</h4>Retrospective cohort study with patient data collected and followed up from March 1, 2020, to May 1, 2021, from the nationwide SEMI-COVID-19 Registry ...[more]