Dataset Information

SARS-CoV-2 transmission and impacts of unvaccinated-only screening in populations of mixed vaccination status.

ABSTRACT: Screening programs that test only the unvaccinated population have been proposed and implemented to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 spread, implicitly assuming that the unvaccinated population drives transmission. To evaluate this premise and quantify the impact of unvaccinated-only screening programs, we introduce a model for SARS-CoV-2 transmission through which we explore a range of transmission rates, vaccine effectiveness scenarios, rates of prior infection, and screening programs. We find that, as vaccination rates increase, the proportion of transmission driven by the unvaccinated population decreases, such that most community spread is driven by vaccine-breakthrough infections once vaccine coverage exceeds 55% (omicron) or 80% (delta), points which shift lower as vaccine effectiveness wanes. Thus, we show that as vaccination rates increase, the transmission reductions associated with unvaccinated-only screening decline, identifying three distinct categories of impact on infections and hospitalizations. More broadly, these results demonstrate that effective unvaccinated-only screening depends on population immunity, vaccination rates, and variant.

SUBMITTER: Bubar KM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9120147 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

SARS-CoV-2 transmission and impacts of unvaccinated-only screening in populations of mixed vaccination status.

Bubar Kate M KM Middleton Casey E CE Bjorkman Kristen K KK Parker Roy R Larremore Daniel B DB

Nature communications 20220519 1

Screening programs that test only the unvaccinated population have been proposed and implemented to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 spread, implicitly assuming that the unvaccinated population drives transmission. To evaluate this premise and quantify the impact of unvaccinated-only screening programs, we introduce a model for SARS-CoV-2 transmission through which we explore a range of transmission rates, vaccine effectiveness scenarios, rates of prior infection, and screening programs. We find that, as vac ...[more]

PMID: 35589681

Similar Datasets

Project description:ImportanceData are limited on whether patients with breakthrough COVID-19 infection have the potential to significantly contribute to the spread of SARS-CoV-2.ObjectiveTo compare the secondary attack rate and infectious viral shedding kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 between fully vaccinated individuals (breakthrough infection group) and partially or unvaccinated individuals (nonbreakthrough infection group).Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study assessed secondary transmission by analyzing the epidemiologic data of health care workers, inpatients, and caregivers diagnosed with COVID-19 during hospitalization or residence in a tertiary care hospital between March 1, 2020, and November 6, 2021. To evaluate viral shedding kinetics, the genomic RNA of SARS-CoV-2 was measured using polymerase chain reaction and performed virus culture from daily saliva samples of individuals with mild COVID-19 infected with the Delta variant who were isolated in a community facility in Seoul, South Korea, between July 20 and August 20, 2021.ExposuresCOVID-19 vaccination.Main outcomes and measuresThe secondary attack rate and infectious viral shedding kinetics according to COVID-19 vaccination status.ResultsA total of 173 individuals (median [IQR] age, 47 [32-59] years; 100 female [58%]) with COVID-19 were included in the secondary transmission study, of whom 50 (29%) had a breakthrough infection. Secondary transmission was significantly less common in the breakthrough infection group than in the nonbreakthrough infection group (3 of 43 [7%] vs 29 of 110 [26%]; P = .008). In the viral shedding kinetics study, 45 patients (median age, 37 years [IQR, 25-49 years]; 14 female [31%]) infected with the Delta variant were included, of whom 6 (13%) were fully vaccinated and 39 (87%) were partially or unvaccinated. Although the initial genomic viral load was comparable between the 2 groups, viable virus in cell culture was detected for a notably longer duration in partially vaccinated (8 days after symptom onset) or unvaccinated (10 days after symptom onset) individuals compared with fully vaccinated individuals (4 days after symptom onset).Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study, although the initial genomic viral load was similar between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, fully vaccinated individuals had a shorter duration of viable viral shedding and a lower secondary attack rate than partially vaccinated or unvaccinated individuals. Data from this study provide important evidence that despite the possibility of breakthrough infections, COVID-19 vaccinations remain critically useful for controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

Project description:BackgroundHousehold transmission contributes to SARS-CoV-2 spread, but the role of children in transmission is unclear. We conducted a study that included symptomatic and asymptomatic children and adults exposed to SARS-CoV-2 in their households with the objective of determining how SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted within households.MethodsIn this case-ascertained antibody-surveillance study, we enrolled households in Ottawa, Ontario, in which at least 1 household member had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 on reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction testing. The enrolment period was September 2020 to March 2021. Potentially eligible participants were identified if they had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 at an academic emergency department or affiliated testing centre; people who learned about the study through the media could also self-identify for participation. At least 2 participants were required for a household to be eligible for study participation, and at least 1 enrolled participant per household had to be a child (age < 18 yr). Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays were used to evaluate SARS-CoV-2-specific IgA, IgM and IgG against the spike-trimer and nucleocapsid protein. The primary outcome was household secondary attack rate, defined as the proportion of household contacts positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibody among the total number of household contacts participating in the study. We performed descriptive statistics at both the individual and household levels. To estimate and compare outcomes between patient subgroups, and to examine predictors of household transmission, we fitted a series of multivariable logistic regression with robust standard errors to account for clustering of individuals within households.ResultsWe enrolled 695 participants from 180 households: 180 index participants (74 children, 106 adults) and 515 of their household contacts (266 children, 249 adults). A total of 487 household contacts (94.6%) (246 children, 241 adults) had SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing, of whom 239 had a positive result (secondary attack rate 49.1%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 42.9%-55.3%). Eighty-eight (36.8%, 95% CI 29.3%-43.2%) of the 239 were asymptomatic; asymptomatic rates were similar for children (51/130 [39.2%, 95% CI 30.7%-48.5%]) and adults (37/115 [32.2%, 95% CI 24.2%-41.4%]) (odds ratio [OR] 1.3, 95% CI 0.8-2.1). Adults were more likely than children to transmit SARS-CoV-2 (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.3-3.6). The odds of transmission from asymptomatic (OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.2-1.4) versus symptomatic (OR 0.9, 95% CI 0.6-1.4) index participants to household contacts was uncertain. Predictors of household transmission included household density (number of people per bedroom), relationship to index participant and number of cases in the household.InterpretationThe rate of SARS-CoV-2 transmission within households was nearly 50% during the study period, and children were an important source of spread. The findings suggest that children are an important driver of the COVID-19 pandemic; this should inform public health policy.

Dataset Information

SARS-CoV-2 transmission and impacts of unvaccinated-only screening in populations of mixed vaccination status.

Publications

SARS-CoV-2 transmission and impacts of unvaccinated-only screening in populations of mixed vaccination status.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets