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Global estimates of the fitness advantage of SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron.

ABSTRACT: New variants of SARS-CoV-2 show remarkable heterogeneity in their relative fitness both over time and space. In this paper we extend a previously published model for estimating the selection strength for new SARS-CoV-2 variants to a hierarchical, mixed-effects, renewal equation model. This formulation allows us to globally estimate selection effects at different spatial levels while controlling for complex patterns of transmission and jointly inferring the effects of unit-level covariates in the spatial heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2 selection effects. Applying this model to the spread of Omicron in 40 counties finding evidence for very strong (64%) but very heterogeneous selection effects at the country level. We further considered different measures of vaccination levels and measures of recent population-level infection as possible explanations. However, none of those variables were found to explain a significant proportion of the heterogeneity in country-level selection effects. We did find a significant positive correlation between the selection advantage of Delta and Omicron at the country level, suggesting that region-specific explanatory variables of fitness differences do exist. Our method is implemented in the Stan programming language, can be run on standard commercial-grade computing resources, and should be straightforward to apply to future variants.

SUBMITTER: van Dorp C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9216718 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Global estimates of the fitness advantage of SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron.

van Dorp Christiaan C Goldberg Emma E Ke Ruian R Hengartner Nick N Romero-Severson Ethan E

medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences 20220616

New variants of SARS-CoV-2 show remarkable heterogeneity in their relative fitness both over time and space. In this paper we extend a previously published model for estimating the selection strength for new SARS-CoV-2 variants to a hierarchical, mixed-effects, renewal equation model. This formulation allows us to globally estimate selection effects at different spatial levels while controlling for complex patterns of transmission and jointly inferring the effects of unit-level covariates in the ...[more]

PMID: 35734094

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Project description:Mucosal immunity plays a pivotal role in providing comprehensive protection against upper-airway infections and effectively limiting the shedding and transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Despite its critical importance, there remains a notable absence of nasal spray vaccines endorsed for global use by the World Health Organization. This could be due to the inability of current intranasal vaccines to induce strong mucosal and systemic responses in humans, thus urgently entailing a next-generation of intranasal COVID-19 vaccines with novel and safe technologies. In this study, we prepared a two-component intranasal vaccine that combines adenovirus vectors with a self-assembled subunit protein. Specifically, the adenovirus vector expresses the spike protein of XBB.1.5 variant (Ad5XBB.1.5), and were mixed with the recombinant protein that developed derived from the receptor binding domain (RBD) of XBB.1.5 (RBDXBB.1.5-HR). Combination of Ad5XBB.1.5 and RBDXBB.1.5-HR elicited superior humoral and cellular immunity against XBB.1.5-included variants compared with the individual components. Importantly, the STING signaling pathway was found to be crucial for the adjuvant effect of the adenovirus vector. In addition, to increase the broad-spectrum neutralizing capacities, a trimeric protein derived from the BA.5 variant (RBDBA.5-HR) was incorporated to formulate a three-component vaccine (Ad5XBB.1.5+RBDXBB.1.5-HR+RBDBA.5-HR), indicating the utilization of a combination of an adenovirus-vectored and subunit protein vaccines has the potential to serve as a next-generation intranasal vaccine platform. Of note, intranasally delivery of two-component vaccine provided protective immunity against live Omicron XBB.1.16 virus challenge in mice. Furthermore, the combination of adenovirus and subunit protein vaccine demonstrates excellent tolerability and safety in human subjects, and is able to induce enhanced mucosal immunity as well as high levels of sera neutralizing antibody in all participants. These findings underscore its suitability for clinical application in the prevention of SARS-CoV-2 variants encompassing XBB lineages.

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Global estimates of the fitness advantage of SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron.

Publications

Global estimates of the fitness advantage of SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron.

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