Project description:In this study a real case multi-objective material and supplier selection problem in cardboard box production industries is studied. This problem for the first time optimizes the objective functions such as total wastage amounts remained from all raw sheets, total costs of the system including purchasing cost and transportation cost (including fixed and variable costs) of the raw sheets, and total overplus of produced cardboard boxes. To be closer to the real situations, as a novelty, the problem is formulated in belief-degree-based uncertain environment with normal distribution where this type of uncertainty applies the ideas of experts. A solution approach including two steps is proposed to solve the problem. In the first step, the proposed uncertain formulation is converted to a crisp form using a typical chance constrained programming scheme. In the second step, a new goal programming approach containing a piecewise penalty function is developed in order to solve the obtained multi-objective crisp formulation. In this approach, based on the ideas of experts, multiple goals are considered with different penalty values. A case study from cardboard box industries is considered to evaluate the proposed formulations and solution approach. According to the obtained results, the proposed solution approach is compared to similar approaches of the literature and its efficiency is studied.
Project description:BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has overrun hospital systems while exacerbating economic hardship and food insecurity on a global scale. In an effort to understand how early action to find and control the virus is associated with cumulative outcomes, we explored how country-level testing capacity affects later COVID-19 mortality.MethodsWe used the Our World in Data database to explore testing and mortality records in 27 countries from December 31, 2019, to September 30, 2020; we applied Cox proportional hazards regression to determine the relationship between early COVID-19 testing capacity (cumulative tests per case) and later COVID-19 mortality (time to specified mortality thresholds), adjusting for country-level confounders, including median age, GDP, hospital bed capacity, population density, and nonpharmaceutical interventions.ResultsHigher early testing implementation, as indicated by more cumulative tests per case when mortality was still low, was associated with a lower risk for higher per capita deaths. A sample finding indicated that a higher cumulative number of tests administered per case at the time of six deaths per million persons was associated with a lower risk of reaching 15 deaths per million persons, after adjustment for all confounders (HR = 0.909; P = 0.0001).ConclusionsCountries that developed stronger COVID-19 testing capacity at early timepoints, as measured by tests administered per case identified, experienced a slower increase of deaths per capita. Thus, this study operationalizes the value of testing and provides empirical evidence that stronger testing capacity at early timepoints is associated with reduced mortality and improved pandemic control.
Project description:We describe an extractionless real-time reverse transcriptase-PCR (rRT-PCR) protocol for SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid detection using heat as an accurate cost-effective high-capacity solution to COVID-19 testing. We present the effect of temperature, transport media, rRT-PCR mastermixes and gene assays on SARS-CoV-2 gene amplification and limits of detection. Utilizing our heated methodology, our limits of detection were 12.5 and 1 genome copy/reaction for singleplex E- and N1-gene assays, respectively, and 1 genome copy/reaction by utilizing an E/N1 or Orf1ab/N1 multiplex assay combination. Using this approach, we detected up to 98% of COVID-19 positive patient samples analyzed in our various cohorts including a significant percentage of weak positives. Importantly, this extractionless approach will allow for >2-fold increase in testing capacity with existing instruments, circumvent the additional need for expensive extraction devices, provide the sensitivity needed for COVID-19 detection and significantly reduce the turn-around time of reporting COVID-19 test results.
Project description:Point of care (POC) testing has enabled rapid coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) diagnosis in resource-limited settings with limited laboratory infrastructure and high disease burden. However, the accessibility of the tests is not optimal in these settings. This scoping review mapped evidence on supply chain management (SCM) systems for POC diagnostic services to reveal evidence that can help guide future research and inform the improved implementation of SARS-CoV-2 POC diagnostics in resource-limited settings. This scoping review was guided by an adapted version of the Arksey and O'Malley methodological framework. We searched the following electronic databases: Medline Ovid, Medline EBSCO, Scopus, PubMed, PsychInfo, Web of Science and EBSCOHost. We also searched grey literature in the form of dissertations/theses, conference proceedings, websites of international organisations such as the World Health Organisation and government reports. A search summary table was used to test the efficacy of the search strategy. The quality of the included studies was appraised using the mixed method appraisal tool (MMAT) version 2018. We retrieved 1206 articles (databases n = 1192, grey literature n = 14). Of these, 31 articles were included following abstract and full-text screening. Fifteen were primary studies conducted in LMICs, and 16 were reviews. The following themes emerged from the included articles: availability and accessibility of POC diagnostic services; reasons for stockouts of POC diagnostic tests (procurement, storage, distribution, inventory management and quality assurance) and human resources capacity in POC diagnostic services. Of the 31 eligible articles, 15 underwent methodological quality appraisal with scores between 90% and 100%. Our findings revealed limited published research on SCM systems for POC diagnostic services globally. We recommend primary studies aimed at investigating the barriers and enablers of SCM systems for POC diagnostic services for highly infectious pathogens such SARS-CoV-2 in high disease-burdened settings with limited laboratory infrastructures.
Project description:Concern is growing that business enterprises focus primarily on their economic activities while disregarding the adverse environmental and social effects of these activities. To contribute to the literature on this matter, this study investigates a novel bi-objective inventory allocation planning problem with supplier selection and carbon trading across multiple periods under uncertainty. The concepts of a carbon credit price and a carbon cap are proposed to demonstrate the effect of carbon emissions costs on inventory allocation network costs. Demands of manufacturers, transport price, and defect rate of materials that should be rejected are set as random variables. We combine normalized normal constraint method, differential evolution algorithm, and uncertainty simulation to deal with the complex model. One representative case shows the effectiveness and practicability of this model and proposed method. The Pareto frontier is generated by solving the bi-objective model. We extend the results of numerical examples in large scale problems, and compare the solution method results with exact solutions. The environmental objective across the inventory allocation network varies with changes of the carbon cap and the carbon credit price.
Project description:Community mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19, ranging from healthy hygiene to shelter-in-place orders, exact substantial socioeconomic costs. Judicious implementation and relaxation of restrictions amplify their public health benefits while reducing costs. We derive optimal strategies for toggling between mitigation stages using daily COVID-19 hospital admissions. With public compliance, the policy triggers ensure adequate intensive care unit capacity with high probability while minimizing the duration of strict mitigation measures. In comparison, we show that other sensible COVID-19 staging policies, including France's ICU-based thresholds and a widely adopted indicator for reopening schools and businesses, require overly restrictive measures or trigger strict stages too late to avert catastrophic surges. As proof-of-concept, we describe the optimization and maintenance of the staged alert system that has guided COVID-19 policy in a large US city (Austin, Texas) since May 2020. As cities worldwide face future pandemic waves, our findings provide a robust strategy for tracking COVID-19 hospital admissions as an early indicator of hospital surges and enacting staged measures to ensure integrity of the health system, safety of the health workforce, and public confidence.
Project description:Community mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19, ranging from healthy hygiene to shelter-in-place orders, exact substantial socioeconomic costs. Judicious implementation and relaxation of restrictions amplify their public health benefits while reducing costs. We derive optimal strategies for toggling between mitigation stages using daily COVID-19 hospital admissions. With public compliance, the policy triggers ensure adequate intensive care unit capacity with high probability while minimizing the duration of strict mitigation measures. In comparison, we show that other sensible COVID-19 staging policies, including France's ICU-based thresholds and a widely adopted indicator for reopening schools and businesses, require overly restrictive measures or trigger strict stages too late to avert catastrophic surges. As cities worldwide face future pandemic waves, our findings provide a robust strategy for tracking COVID-19 hospital admissions as an early indicator of hospital surges and enacting staged measures to ensure integrity of the health system, safety of the health workforce, and public confidence.
Project description:BackgroundTesting is crucial for COVID-19 response and management, however, WHO's preparedness index omits estimations of actual testing capabilities, which influence the ability to contain, mitigate and clinically manage infectious diseases. With one of the highest excess death rates globally, Ecuador had a comparatively low number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, which may have been influenced by limited availability of data for decision-making due to low laboratory capacity.MethodsWe examine de-identified data on 55,063 individuals with suspected COVID-19 between February 27 and April 30, 2020 included in the RT-PCR testing database collected by the Ministry of Health. Processing times and rates per province, and the number of pending tests, were tallied cumulatively. We assessed the relationship between sample shipping, laboratory capacity and case completion using a negative binomial generalized linear model.ResultsThe national average time for case completion was 3 days; 12.1% of samples took ≥10 days to complete; the national average daily backlog was 29.1 tests per 100,000 people. Only 8 out of 24 provinces had authorized COVID-19 processing laboratories but not all processed samples. There was an association between samples coming from outside the processing laboratory province, the number of other samples present at the laboratory during processing, and the amount of time needed to process a sample. Samples from another province took 1.29 times as long to process, on average. The percentage of pending results on April 30 was 67.1%.ConclusionA centralized RT-PCR testing system contributes to critical delays in processing, which may mask a case burden higher than reported, impeding timely awareness, and adequate clinical care and vaccination strategies and subsequent monitoring. Although Ecuador adapted or authorized existing facilities to address limitations in laboratory capacity for COVID-19, this study highlights the need to estimate and augment laboratory capabilities for improved decision making and policies on diagnostic guidelines and availability. Support is needed to procure the necessary human and physical resources at all phases of diagnostic testing, including transportation of samples and supplies, and information management. Strengthening emergency preparedness enables a clear understanding of COVID-19 disparities within and across the country.