Dataset Information

Accurate long-term prediction of death for patients with cirrhosis.

ABSTRACT:

Background and aims

Cirrhosis is a major cause of death and is associated with extensive health care use. Patients with cirrhosis have complex treatment choices due to risks of morbidity and mortality. To optimally counsel and treat patients with cirrhosis requires tools to predict their longer-term liver-related survival. We sought to develop and validate a risk score to predict longer-term survival of patients with cirrhosis.

Approach and results

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adults with cirrhosis with no major life-limiting comorbidities. Adults with cirrhosis within the Veterans Health Administration were used for model training and internal validation, and external validation used the OneFlorida Clinical Research Consortium. We used four model-building approaches including variables predictive of cirrhosis-related mortality, focused on discrimination at key time points (1, 3, 5, and 10 years). Among 30,263 patients with cirrhosis ≤75 years old without major life-limiting comorbidities and complete laboratory data during the baseline period, the boosted survival tree models had the highest discrimination, with 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year survival rates of 0.77, 0.81, 0.84, and 0.88, respectively. The 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year discrimination was nearly identical in external validation. Secondary analyses with imputation of missing data and subgroups by etiology of liver disease had similar results to the primary model.

Conclusions

We developed and validated (internally and externally) a risk score to predict longer-term survival of patients with cirrhosis. This score would transform management of patients with cirrhosis in terms of referral to specialty care and treatment decision-making for non-liver-related care.

SUBMITTER: Goldberg D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9378359 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Accurate long-term prediction of death for patients with cirrhosis.

Goldberg David D Mantero Alejandro A Kaplan David D Delgado Cindy C John Binu B Nuchovich Nadine N Emanuel Ezekiel E Reese Peter P PP

Hepatology (Baltimore, Md.) 20220401 3

<h4>Background and aims</h4>Cirrhosis is a major cause of death and is associated with extensive health care use. Patients with cirrhosis have complex treatment choices due to risks of morbidity and mortality. To optimally counsel and treat patients with cirrhosis requires tools to predict their longer-term liver-related survival. We sought to develop and validate a risk score to predict longer-term survival of patients with cirrhosis.<h4>Approach and results</h4>We conducted a retrospective coh ...[more]

PMID: 35278226

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Project description:Background & aimsLong-term albumin (LTA) is currently standard of care for patients with decompensated cirrhosis in many Italian hepatology centres. In this real-life study, we aimed to describe patient, logistical and treatment-related characteristics in daily clinical practice and to identify predictors of response.MethodsWe performed a multicentre, retrospective, observational study in patients with cirrhosis and ascites receiving LTA between 01/2016 and 02/2022 and followed until death, TIPS (transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt) placement, transplantation or 02/2023.ResultsA total of 312 patients, the majority with alcohol-related cirrhosis, were included. At baseline, median Child-Pugh, MELD, and MELD-Na were 8, 15, and 18, respectively. Ascites was grade 2 in 55% of patients, grade 3 in 35% and refractory in 27%, while 47% had received large volume paracentesis in the previous 6 months. Median LTA was 10 months with a median dose of 40 g/week. Ascites resolved to grade 0-1 in 34% of patients within the first 3 months and 56% by the end of treatment. Predictors of ascites resolution were age (p = 0.007), baseline grade of ascites (p = 0.007), no paracentesis in the previous 6 months (p = 0.001), aetiological treatment in the past 12 months or during LTA (p = 0.005), weekly albumin dose (p = 0.014) and serum albumin concentration of 40 g/L after 1 month of treatment (p = 0.017). Of the 83 patients with refractory ascites at inclusion, 26% had grade 0/1 ascites at the last observation. No severe albumin-related side-effects were reported and only 1% discontinued for logistical reasons.ConclusionsLTA is feasible as an outpatient treatment for the management of ascites. In the current study, ascites resolved in more than half of patients receiving LTA on top of diuretics, including in some with refractory ascites. Predictors of response to LTA provide useful information for tailoring treatment.Impact and implicationsThe ANSWER randomised-controlled trial has shown that long-term albumin treatment (LTA) is an effective approach for the management of patients with cirrhosis and ascites. This observational study provides novel information on target patients, modalities and length of treatment, predictors of ascites resolution, stopping criteria, and clinical trajectories of patients on treatment. LTA is a feasible option in the daily clinical practice for the management of ascites when given on top of diuretics. Rather than an alternative therapy, LTA should be integrated with the other treatment options already available for patients with difficult-to-treat ascites. The predictive factors of response identified in the present study can help physicians to individualise LTA and optimise the decision-making process.

Dataset Information

Accurate long-term prediction of death for patients with cirrhosis.

Background and aims

Approach and results

Conclusions

Publications

Accurate long-term prediction of death for patients with cirrhosis.

Similar Datasets

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