National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021.

ABSTRACT:

Background

During the COVID-19 pandemic there has been a strong interest in forecasts of the short-term development of epidemiological indicators to inform decision makers. In this study we evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland for the period from January through April 2021.

Methods

We evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Germany and Poland. These were issued by 15 different forecasting models, run by independent research teams. Moreover, we study the performance of combined ensemble forecasts. Evaluation of probabilistic forecasts is based on proper scoring rules, along with interval coverage proportions to assess calibration. The presented work is

SUBMITTER: Bracher J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9622804 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature