Dataset Information

A model simulation of a containment of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Beijing, China

ABSTRACT:

Objective

The Omicron variant of SARS-COV-2 is replacing previously circulating variants around the world in 2022. Sporadic outbreaks of the Omicron variant into China have posed a concern how to properly response to battle against evolving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Methods

Based on the epidemic data from website announced by the BJCDC for the recent outbreak in Beijing from April 22nd to June 8th in 2022, we developed a modified SEPIR model to mathematically simulate the customized Dynamic COVID-Zero Strategy and project transmissions of the Omicron epidemic. To demonstrate the effectiveness of dynamic-changing policies deployment during this outbreak control, we modified the transmission rate into four parts according to policy-changing dates as April 22nd – May 2nd, May 3rd – 11st, May 12th – 21st, May 22nd – June 8th, and we adopted Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to estimate different transmission rate. Then we altered the timing and scaling of these measures used to understand the effectiveness of these policies on the Omicron variant.

Results

The estimated effective reproduction number of four parts are 1.75 (95% CI 1.66-1.85), 0.89 (95% CI 0.79-0.99), 1.15 (95% CI 1.05-1.26) and 0.53 (95% CI 0.48 -0.60), respectively. In the experiment, we found that till June 8th the cumulative cases would rise to 132,609 (95%CI 59,667-250,639), 73.39 times of observed cumulative cases number 1,807 if no policy were implemented on May 3rd, and would be 3,235 (95%CI 1,909 - 4,954), increased by 79.03% if no policy were implemented on May 22nd. A 3-day delay of the implementation of policies would led to increase of cumulative cases by 58.28% and a 7-day delay would led to increase of cumulative cases by 187.00%. On the other hand, taking control measures 3 or 7 days in advance would resulted in merely 38.63% or 68.62% reduction of real cumulative cases. And if lockdown implemented 3 days before May 3rd, the cumulative cases would be 289 (95%CI 211-378), reduced by 84%, and the cumulative cases would be 853 (95%CI 578-1,183), reduced by 52.79% if lockdown implemented 3 days after May 3rd.

Conclusion

Our results suggested the Dynamic COVID-Zero Strategy was able to effectively minimize the scale of the transmission, shorten the epidemic period and reduce the total number of infections.

SUBMITTER: Liang S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9677562 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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