Dataset Information

Simulating the Impacts of Augmenting Intensive Vector Control with Mass Drug Administration or Test-and-Treat Strategies on the Malaria Infectious Reservoir.

ABSTRACT: Highly effective vector control can reduce malaria burden significantly, but individuals with parasitemia provide a potential reservoir for onward transmission. We performed an empirical, non-parametric simulation based on cohort data from Tororo District, Uganda-an area with historically high but recently reduced malaria transmission-to estimate the effects of mass drug administration (MDA) and test-and-treat on parasite prevalence. We estimate that a single round of MDA would have accelerated declines in parasite prevalence dramatically over 2 years (cumulative parasite prevalence ratio [PPR], 0.34). This decline was mostly during the first year of administration (PPR, 0.23) and waned by 23 months (PPR, 0.74). Test-and-treat using a highly sensitive diagnostic had nearly the same effect as MDA at 1 year (PPR, 0.27) and required many fewer treatments. The impact of test-and-treat using a standard diagnostic was modest (PPR, 0.58 at 1 year). Our analysis suggests that in areas experiencing a dramatic reduction in malaria prevalence, MDA or test-and-treat with a highly sensitive diagnostic may be an effective way of reducing or eliminating the infectious reservoir temporarily. However, for sustained benefits, repeated rounds of the intervention or additional interventions are required.

SUBMITTER: Nankabirwa JI

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9709029 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Simulating the Impacts of Augmenting Intensive Vector Control with Mass Drug Administration or Test-and-Treat Strategies on the Malaria Infectious Reservoir.

Nankabirwa Joaniter I JI Arinaitwe Emmanuel E Briggs Jessica J Rek John J Rosenthal Philip J PJ Kamya Moses R MR Olwoch Peter P Smith David L DL Rodriguez-Barraquer Isabel I Dorsey Grant G Greenhouse Bryan B

The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene 20221003 5

Highly effective vector control can reduce malaria burden significantly, but individuals with parasitemia provide a potential reservoir for onward transmission. We performed an empirical, non-parametric simulation based on cohort data from Tororo District, Uganda-an area with historically high but recently reduced malaria transmission-to estimate the effects of mass drug administration (MDA) and test-and-treat on parasite prevalence. We estimate that a single round of MDA would have accelerated ...[more]

PMID: 36191870

Similar Datasets

Project description:Plasmodium falciparum, the most virulent human malaria parasite, undergoes asexual reproduction within the human host, but reproduces sexually within its vector host, the Anopheles mosquito. Consequently, the mosquito stage of the parasite life cycle provides an opportunity to create genetically novel parasites in multiply-infected mosquitoes, potentially increasing parasite population diversity. Despite the important implications for disease transmission and malaria control, a quantitative mapping of how parasite diversity entering a mosquito relates to diversity of the parasite exiting, has not been undertaken. To examine the role that vector biology plays in modulating parasite diversity, we develop a two-part model framework that estimates the diversity as a consequence of different bottlenecks and expansion events occurring during the vector-stage of the parasite life cycle. For the underlying framework, we develop the first stochastic model of within-vector P. falciparum parasite dynamics and go on to simulate the dynamics of two parasite subpopulations, emulating multiply infected mosquitoes. We show that incorporating stochasticity is essential to capture the extensive variation in parasite dynamics, particularly in the presence of multiple parasites. In particular, unlike deterministic models, which always predict the most fit parasites to produce the most sporozoites, we find that occasionally only parasites with lower fitness survive to the sporozoite stage. This has important implications for onward transmission. The second part of our framework includes a model of sequence diversity generation resulting from recombination and reassortment between parasites within a mosquito. Our two-part model framework shows that bottlenecks entering the oocyst stage decrease parasite diversity from what is present in the initial gametocyte population in a mosquito's blood meal. However, diversity increases with the possibility for recombination and proliferation in the formation of sporozoites. Furthermore, when we begin with two parasite subpopulations in the initial gametocyte population, the probability of transmitting more than two unique parasites from mosquito to human is over 50% for a wide range of initial gametocyte densities.

Project description:Tororo District, Uganda experienced a dramatic decrease in malaria burden from 2015-19 during 5 years of indoor residual spraying (IRS) with carbamate (Bendiocarb) and then organophosphate (Actellic) insecticides. However, a marked resurgence occurred in 2020, which coincided with a change to a clothianidin-based IRS formulations (Fludora Fusion/SumiShield). To quantify the magnitude of the resurgence, investigate causes, and evaluate the impact of a shift back to IRS with Actellic in 2023, we assessed changes in malaria metrics in regions within and near Tororo District. Malaria surveillance data from Nagongera Health Center, Tororo District was included from 2011-2023. In addition, a cohort of 667 residents from 84 houses was followed from August 2020 through September 2023 from an area bordering Tororo and neighboring Busia District, where IRS has never been implemented. Cohort participants underwent passive surveillance for clinical malaria and active surveillance for parasitemia every 28 days. Mosquitoes were collected in cohort households every 2 weeks using CDC light traps. Female Anopheles were speciated and tested for sporozoites and phenotypic insecticide resistance. Temporal comparisons of malaria metrics were stratified by geographic regions. At Nagongera Health Center average monthly malaria cases varied from 419 prior to implementation of IRS; to 56 after 5 years of IRS with Bendiocarb and Actellic; to 1591 after the change in IRS to Fludora Fusion/SumiShield; to 155 after a change back to Actellic. Among cohort participants living away from the border in Tororo, malaria incidence increased over 8-fold (0.36 vs. 2.97 episodes per person year, p<0.0001) and parasite prevalence increased over 4-fold (17% vs. 70%, p<0.0001) from 2021 to 2022 when Fludora Fusion/SumiShield was used. Incidence decreased almost 5-fold (2.97 vs. 0.70, p<0.0001) and prevalence decreased by 39% (70% vs. 43%, p<0.0001) after shifting back to Actellic. There was a similar pattern among those living near the border in Tororo, with increased incidence between 2021 and 2022 (0.93 vs. 2.40, p<0.0001) followed by a decrease after the change to Actellic (2.40 vs. 1.33, p<0.001). Among residents of Busia, malaria incidence did not change significantly over the 3 years of observation. Malaria resurgence in Tororo was temporally correlated with the replacement of An. gambiae s.s. by An. funestus as the primary vector, with a marked decrease in the density of An. funestus following the shift back to IRS with Actellic. In Busia, An. gambiae s.s. remained the primary vector throughout the observation period. Sporozoite rates were approximately 50% higher among An. funestus compared to the other common malaria vectors. Insecticide resistance phenotyping of An. funestus revealed high tolerance to clothianidin, but full susceptibility to Actellic. A dramatic resurgence of malaria in Tororo was temporally associated with a change to clothianidin-based IRS formulations and emergence of An. funestus as the predominant vector. Malaria decreased after a shift back to IRS with Actellic. This study highlights the ability of malaria vectors to rapidly circumvent control efforts and the importance of high-quality surveillance systems to assess the impact of malaria control interventions and generate timely, actionable data.

Project description:BackgroundAgricultural pesticides may play a profound role in selection of resistance in field populations of mosquito vectors. The objective of this study is to investigate possible links between agricultural pesticide use and development of resistance to insecticides by the major malaria vector Anopheles arabiensis in northern Sudan.Methodology/principal findingsEntomological surveys were conducted during two agricultural seasons in six urban and peri-urban sites in Khartoum state. Agro-sociological data were collected from 240 farmers subjected to semi-structured questionnaires based on knowledge attitude and practice (KAP) surveys. Susceptibility status of An. arabiensis (n=6000) was assessed in all sites and during each season using WHO bioassay tests to DDT, deltamethrin, permethrin, Malathion and bendiocarb. KAP analysis revealed that pesticide application was common practice among both urban and peri-urban farmers, with organophosphates and carbamates most commonly used. Selection for resistance is likely to be greater in peri-urban sites where farmers apply pesticide more frequently and are less likely to dispose of surpluses correctly. Though variable among insecticides and seasons, broad-spectrum mortality was slightly, but significantly higher in urban than peri-urban sites and most marked for bendiocarb, to which susceptibility was lowest. Anopheles arabiensis from all sites showed evidence of resistance or suspected resistance, especially pyrethroids. However, low-moderate frequencies of the L1014F kdr allele in all sites, which was very strongly associated with DDT, permethrin and deltamethrin survivorship (OR=6.14-14.67) suggests that resistance could increase rapidly.ConclusionsUbiquitous multiple-resistance coupled with presence of a clear mechanism for DDT and pyrethroids (kdr L1014F) in populations of An. arabiensis from Khartoum-Sudan suggests careful insecticide management is essential to prolong efficacy. Our findings are consistent with agricultural insecticide use as a source of selection for resistance and argue for coordination between the integrated vector control program and the Ministry of Agriculture to permit successful implementation of rational resistance management strategies.

Dataset Information

Simulating the Impacts of Augmenting Intensive Vector Control with Mass Drug Administration or Test-and-Treat Strategies on the Malaria Infectious Reservoir.

Publications

Simulating the Impacts of Augmenting Intensive Vector Control with Mass Drug Administration or Test-and-Treat Strategies on the Malaria Infectious Reservoir.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets