Using time-dependent reproduction number to predict turning points of COVID-19 outbreak in Dalian, Liaoning province, China.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

To forecast the development trend of current outbreak in Dalian, mainly to predict turning points of COVID-19 outbreak in Dalian, Liaoning province, China, the results can be used to provide a scientific reference for timely adjustment of prevention and control strategies.

Methods

During the outbreak, Bayesian framework was used to calculated the time-dependent reproduction number ([Formula: see text]), and then above acquired [Formula: see text] and exponential trend equation were used to establish the prediction model, through the model, predict the [Formula: see text] value of following data and know when [Formula: see text] smaller than 1.

Results

From July 22 to August 5, 2020, and from March 14 to April 2, 2022, 92 and 632 confirmed cases and asymptom

SUBMITTER: An Q 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9736721 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature