Dataset Information

Using time-dependent reproduction number to predict turning points of COVID-19 outbreak in Dalian, Liaoning province, China.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

To forecast the development trend of current outbreak in Dalian, mainly to predict turning points of COVID-19 outbreak in Dalian, Liaoning province, China, the results can be used to provide a scientific reference for timely adjustment of prevention and control strategies.

Methods

During the outbreak, Bayesian framework was used to calculated the time-dependent reproduction number ([Formula: see text]), and then above acquired [Formula: see text] and exponential trend equation were used to establish the prediction model, through the model, predict the [Formula: see text] value of following data and know when [Formula: see text] smaller than 1.

Results

From July 22 to August 5, 2020, and from March 14 to April 2, 2022, 92 and 632 confirmed cases and asymptomatic infected cases of COVID-19 were reported (324 males and 400 females) in Dalian. The R square for exponential trend equation were 0.982 and 0.980, respectively which fit the [Formula: see text] with illness onset between July 19 to July 28, 2020 and between March 5 to March 17, 2022. According to the result of prediction, under the current strength of prevention and control, the [Formula: see text] of COVID-19 will drop below 1 till August 2, 2020 and March 26, 2022, respectively in Dalian, one day earlier or later than the actual date. That is, the turning point of the COVID-19 outbreak in Dalian, Liaoning province, China will occur on August 2, 2020 and March 26, 2022.

Conclusions

Using time-dependent reproduction number values to predict turning points of COVID-19 outbreak in Dalian, Liaoning province, China was effective and reliable on the whole, and the results can be used to establish a sensitive early warning mechanism to guide the timely adjustment of COVID-19 prevention and control strategies.

SUBMITTER: An Q

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9736721 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Using time-dependent reproduction number to predict turning points of COVID-19 outbreak in Dalian, Liaoning province, China.

An Qingyu Q Wu Jun J Bai Jin Jian JJ Li Xiaofeng X

BMC infectious diseases 20221210 1

<h4>Objectives</h4>To forecast the development trend of current outbreak in Dalian, mainly to predict turning points of COVID-19 outbreak in Dalian, Liaoning province, China, the results can be used to provide a scientific reference for timely adjustment of prevention and control strategies.<h4>Methods</h4>During the outbreak, Bayesian framework was used to calculated the time-dependent reproduction number ([Formula: see text]), and then above acquired [Formula: see text] and exponential trend e ...[more]

PMID: 36496364

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Project description:Carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning can be fatal but is preventable. From October 2010 to February 2011, Anshan Prefecture reported 57 cases of non-occupational CO poisoning in District A, with two deaths. We conducted an investigation to identify risk factors and recommend preventive measures.We defined a possible case of non-occupational CO poisoning as onset of at least two of the following symptoms: fatigue, headache, dizziness, nausea, vomiting, cyanosis, loss of consciousness, coma, and shock from October 1, 2010, to February 28, 2011, in a resident of Anshan Prefecture with non-occupational exposure to CO poisoning. We defined a probable case as onset of at least one of the following symptoms: cyanosis, loss of consciousness, coma and shock, plus at least one of the following symptoms: fatigue, headache, dizziness, nausea, vomiting, among possible cases. A confirmed CO poisoning case was a possible case or probable case plus hemoglobin (Hb) CO higher than 10%. We searched for cases by reviewing medical records and records of hyperbaric oxygen tank usage. In a case-control investigation, we compared home heating practices of 30 case-persons and 120 control-persons who were individually matched to each case by neighborhood.Overall, 56% (39/70) of case-patients' households burned coal for home-heating. In the case-control investigation, 40% (12/30) of case-persons' households compared with 5.8% (7/120) of control-persons' households placed stoves in bedrooms (Mantel-Haenszel odds ratio [ORM-H] = 11, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.0-41); 53% (16/30) of case-patients' households and 33% (40/120) of control-patients' households did not extinguish the fire before sleeping (ORM-H = 3.6, 95% CI = 1.1-12); 13% (4/30) of case-patients' households and 3% (4/120) of control-patients' households had not installed the ventilation pipe vertically (ORM-H = 7.3, 95% CI = 1.0-56). Overall, 77% (23/30) of case-patients' households and 39% (47/120) of control-patients' households had at least one of those three risk factors (ORM-H = 10, 95% CI = 2.5-40; population attributable risk percentage: 78%).Dangerous practices with coal-burning stoves inside the home accounted for the majority of CO poisoning incidents. Community health centers should provide instruction to and supervision of residents on proper installation and use of home heating stoves as well as inspection of installation.

Dataset Information

Using time-dependent reproduction number to predict turning points of COVID-19 outbreak in Dalian, Liaoning province, China.

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Using time-dependent reproduction number to predict turning points of COVID-19 outbreak in Dalian, Liaoning province, China.

Similar Datasets

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