Dataset Information

Potentially Suitable Geographical Area for Monochamus alternatus under Current and Future Climatic Scenarios Based on Optimized MaxEnt Model.

ABSTRACT: M. alternatus is considered to be an important and effective insect vector for the spread of the important international forest quarantine pest, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus. The precise determination of potential suitable areas of M. alternatus is essential to monitor, prevent, and control M. alternatus worldwide. According to the distribution points and climatic variables, the optimized MaxEnt model and ArcGIS were used to predict the current and future potentially suitable areas of M. alternatus worldwide. The optimized MaxEnt model parameters were set as feature combination (FC) = LQHP and β = 1.5, which were determined by the values of AUC_diff, OR₁₀, and ΔAICc. Bio2, Bio6, Bio10, Bio12, and Bio14 were the dominant bioclimatic variables affecting the distribution of M. alternatus. Under the current climate conditions, the potentially suitable habitats of M. alternatus were distributed across all continents except Antarctica, accounting for 4.17% of the Earth's total land area. Under future climate scenarios, the potentially suitable habitats of M. alternatus increased significantly, spreading to a global scale. The results of this study could provide a theoretical basis for the risk analysis of the global distribution and dispersal of M. alternatus as well as the precise monitoring and prevention of this beetle.

SUBMITTER: Gao R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9962367 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Potentially Suitable Geographical Area for Monochamus alternatus under Current and Future Climatic Scenarios Based on Optimized MaxEnt Model.

Gao Ruihe R Liu Lei L Zhao Lijuan L Cui Shaopeng S

Insects 20230213 2

M. alternatus is considered to be an important and effective insect vector for the spread of the important international forest quarantine pest, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus. The precise determination of potential suitable areas of M. alternatus is essential to monitor, prevent, and control M. alternatus worldwide. According to the distribution points and climatic variables, the optimized MaxEnt model and ArcGIS were used to predict the current and future potentially su ...[more]

PMID: 36835751

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Project description:Climate change and variability are projected to alter the geographic suitability of lands for crops cultivation. Accurately predicting changes in the potential current and future land suitability distribution dynamics of wheat (Triticum aestivum), soybean (Glycine max) and rice (Oryza sativa) crops due to climate change scenarios is critical to adapting and mitigating the impacts of bioclimatic changes, and plays a significant role in securing food security in East Asia region. This study compiled large datasets of wheat, soybean and rice occurrence locations from GBIF and 19 bioclimatic variables obtained from the WorldClim database that affect crops growth. We recognized potential future suitable distribution regions for crops under the one socioeconomic pathway, (SSP585) for 2021-2040 and 2041-2060, using the MaxEnt model. The accuracy of the MaxEnt was highly significant with mean AUC values ranging from 0.833 to 0.882 for all models evaluated. The jackknife test revealed that for wheat, Bio4 and Bio12 contributed 17.6% and 12.6%, for soybean Bio10 and Bio12 contributed 15.6% and 49.5%, while for rice Bio12 and Bio14 contributed 12.9% and 36.0% to the MaxEnt model. In addition, cultivation aptitude for wheat, soybean, and rice increased in southeast China, North Korea, South Korea, and Japan, while decreasing in Mongolia and northwest China. Climate change is expected to increase the high land suitability for wheat, soybean, and rice in East Asia. Simulation results indicate an average decrease of unsuitable areas of -98.5%, -41.2% and -36.3% for wheat, soybean and rice from 2060 than that of current land suitability. In contrast, the high land suitable for wheat, soybean and rice cultivation is projected to increase by 75.1%, 68.5% and 81.9% from 2060 as compared with current. The findings of this study are of utmost importance in the East Asia region as they present an opportunity for policy makers to develop appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies required to sustain crops distribution under future climates. Although the risks of wheat, soybean and rice cultivation may be significantly higher in the future because of high temperatures, heat waves, and droughts caused by climate change.

Project description:Human activities, including urbanization, industrialization, agricultural pollution, and land use, have contributed to the increased fragmentation of natural habitats and decreased biodiversity in Zhejiang Province as a result of socioeconomic development. Numerous studies have demonstrated that the protection of ecologically significant species can play a crucial role in restoring biodiversity. Emeia pseudosauteri is regarded as an excellent environmental indicator, umbrella and flagship species because of its unique ecological attributes and strong public appeal. Assessing and predicting the potential suitable distribution area of this species in Zhejiang Province can help in the widespread conservation of biodiversity. We used the MaxEnt ecological niche model to evaluate the habitat suitability of E. pseudosauteri in Zhejiang Province to understand the potential distribution pattern and environmental characteristics of suitable habitats for this species, and used the AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and TSS (true skill statistics) to evaluate the model performance. The results showed that the mean AUC value was 0.985, the standard deviation was 0.011, the TSS average value was 0.81, and the model prediction results were excellent. Among the 11 environmental variables used for modeling, temperature seasonality (Bio_4), altitude (Alt) and distance to rivers (Riv_dis) were the key variables affecting the distribution area of E. pseudosauteri, with contributions of 33.5%, 30% and 15.9%, respectively. Its main suitable distribution area is in southern Zhejiang Province and near rivers, at an altitude of 50-300 m, with a seasonal variation in temperature of 7.7-8 °C. Examples include the Ou River, Nanxi River, Wuxi River, and their tributary watersheds. This study can provide a theoretical basis for determining the scope of E. pseudosauteri habitat protection, population restoration, resource management and industrial development in local areas.

Dataset Information

Potentially Suitable Geographical Area for Monochamus alternatus under Current and Future Climatic Scenarios Based on Optimized MaxEnt Model.

Publications

Potentially Suitable Geographical Area for <i>Monochamus alternatus</i> under Current and Future Climatic Scenarios Based on Optimized MaxEnt Model.

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