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Inherent gene signature of stage II and III colorectal cancer leads in individual recurrence

ABSTRACT: Background & Aims. The current staging system for colorectal cancer (CRC) based on TNM classification allows prediction of potential recurrence. However, it does not necessarily make reliable personalized prediction of prognosis. In this paper we describe combination of clinicopathological data and gene signature of dissected tumor specimen with stage II and III CRC patients would improve the situation.. Methods. A total of 1978 CRC were collected over 5 years, and then 371 stage II and 322 stage III of them with more than 45.9 months records were subjected to clinicopathological feature analyses. Out of this collection, 129 stage II and III CRC cases were selected for analyses of gene expression profiles with resected specimen. The gene signatures were analyzed by repeated random divisions of the samples into training and test sets to extract discriminator genes. After testing the applicability of this discriminator set, it was subjected to validation using a newly obtained set of 69 samples. Results. The pathological factors in solo or in combinations could not make personalized recurrence prediction, except for partial success with stage II patients. The gene signature, on the other hand, was capable of producing a set of discriminator genes, though the accuracy was yet to be improved. We observed that the best result was obtained when discriminators were selected from stage II CRC samples and used for prognosis of stage II CRC. When stage III cases were included in the process of discriminator extraction or in the process to validate samples, the results were poorer. Finally, we examined 31 independent stage II samples with a set of 30 such discriminators and were able to obtain results with 78 % accuracy, 90 % negative predictive value (NPV), and 55% positive predictive value (PPV). Conclusions. Independent clinicopathological variables were not able to predict prognosis of individual patient, unless the factors are combined. On the other hand, gene signatures allowed accurate prediction of prognosis for individuals, especially with stage II CRC, suggesting its potential use for selection of best treatment option for individual patients. The accuracy of discriminator prediction will be further improved when we take the evolution of CRC into consideration.

ORGANISM(S): Homo sapiens

PROVIDER: GSE12032 | GEO | 2009/07/02

SECONDARY ACCESSION(S): PRJNA113313

REPOSITORIES: GEO

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Project description:Background & Aims. The current staging system for colorectal cancer (CRC) based on TNM classification allows prediction of potential recurrence. However, it does not necessarily make reliable personalized prediction of prognosis. In this paper we describe combination of clinicopathological data and gene signature of dissected tumor specimen with stage II and III CRC patients would improve the situation.. Methods. A total of 1978 CRC were collected over 5 years, and then 371 stage II and 322 stage III of them with more than 45.9 months records were subjected to clinicopathological feature analyses. Out of this collection, 129 stage II and III CRC cases were selected for analyses of gene expression profiles with resected specimen. The gene signatures were analyzed by repeated random divisions of the samples into training and test sets to extract discriminator genes. After testing the applicability of this discriminator set, it was subjected to validation using a newly obtained set of 69 samples. Results. The pathological factors in solo or in combinations could not make personalized recurrence prediction, except for partial success with stage II patients. The gene signature, on the other hand, was capable of producing a set of discriminator genes, though the accuracy was yet to be improved. We observed that the best result was obtained when discriminators were selected from stage II CRC samples and used for prognosis of stage II CRC. When stage III cases were included in the process of discriminator extraction or in the process to validate samples, the results were poorer. Finally, we examined 31 independent stage II samples with a set of 30 such discriminators and were able to obtain results with 78 % accuracy, 90 % negative predictive value (NPV), and 55% positive predictive value (PPV). Conclusions. Independent clinicopathological variables were not able to predict prognosis of individual patient, unless the factors are combined. On the other hand, gene signatures allowed accurate prediction of prognosis for individuals, especially with stage II CRC, suggesting its potential use for selection of best treatment option for individual patients. The accuracy of discriminator prediction will be further improved when we take the evolution of CRC into consideration. Of 198 samples, 129 represented the discovery phase and 69 represented the validation phase.

Project description:Claret2009 - Predicting phase III overall survival in colorectal cancer This model is described in the article: Model-based prediction of phase III overall survival in colorectal cancer on the basis of phase II tumor dynamics. Claret L, Girard P, Hoff PM, Van Cutsem E, Zuideveld KP, Jorga K, Fagerberg J, Bruno R. J. Clin. Oncol. 2009 Sep; 27(25): 4103-4108 Abstract: PURPOSE: We developed a drug-disease simulation model to predict antitumor response and overall survival in phase III studies from longitudinal tumor size data in phase II trials. METHODS: We developed a longitudinal exposure-response tumor-growth inhibition (TGI) model of drug effect (and resistance) using phase II data of capecitabine (n = 34) and historical phase III data of fluorouracil (FU; n = 252) in colorectal cancer (CRC); and we developed a parametric survival model that related change in tumor size and patient characteristics to survival time using historical phase III data (n = 245). The models were validated in simulation of antitumor response and survival in an independent phase III study (n = 1,000 replicates) of capecitabine versus FU in CRC. RESULTS: The TGI model provided a good fit of longitudinal tumor size data. A lognormal distribution best described the survival time, and baseline tumor size and change in tumor size from baseline at week 7 were predictors (P < .00001). Predicted change of tumor size and survival time distributions in the phase III study for both capecitabine and FU were consistent with observed values, for example, 431 days (90% prediction interval, 362 to 514 days) versus 401 days observed for survival in the capecitabine arm. A modest survival improvement of 39 days (90% prediction interval, -21 to 110 days) versus 35 days observed was predicted for capecitabine. CONCLUSION: The modeling framework successfully predicted survival in a phase III trial on the basis of capecitabine phase II data in CRC. It is a useful tool to support end-of-phase II decisions and design of phase III studies. This model is hosted on BioModels Database and identified by: MODEL1708310001. To cite BioModels Database, please use: BioModels Database: An enhanced, curated and annotated resource for published quantitative kinetic models. To the extent possible under law, all copyright and related or neighbouring rights to this encoded model have been dedicated to the public domain worldwide. Please refer to CC0 Public Domain Dedication for more information.

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Inherent gene signature of stage II and III colorectal cancer leads in individual recurrence

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