Robust models of disease heterogeneity and control, with application to the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Johnson K
PROVIDER: S-EPMC10021456 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:The COVID-19 outbreak is asynchronous in US counties. Mitigating the COVID-19 transmission requires not only the state and federal level order of protective measures such as social distancing and testing, but also public awareness of time-dependent risk and reactions at county and community levels. We propose a robust approach to estimate the heterogeneous progression of SARS-CoV-2 at all US counties having no less than 2 COVID-19 associated deaths, and we use the daily probability of contracting (PoC) SARS-CoV-2 for a susceptible individual to quantify the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a community. We found that shortening by [Formula: see text] of the infectious period of SARS-CoV-2 can reduce around [Formula: see text] (or 78 K, [Formula: see text] CI: [66 K , 89 K ]) of the COVID-19 associated deaths in the US as of 20 September 2020. Our findings also indicate that reducing infection and deaths by a shortened infectious period is more pronounced for areas with the effective reproduction number close to 1, suggesting that testing should be used along with other mitigation measures, such as social distancing and facial mask-wearing, to reduce the transmission rate. Our deliverable includes a dynamic county-level map for local officials to determine optimal policy responses and for the public to better understand the risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 on each day.
| S-EPMC8178310 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The newly emergent human virus SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2) is resulting in high fatality rates and incapacitated health systems. Preventing further transmission is a priority. We analyzed key parameters of epidemic spread to estimate the contribution of different transmission routes and determine requirements for case isolation and contact tracing needed to stop the epidemic. Although SARS-CoV-2 is spreading too fast to be contained by manual contact tracing, it could be controlled if this process were faster, more efficient, and happened at scale. A contact-tracing app that builds a memory of proximity contacts and immediately notifies contacts of positive cases can achieve epidemic control if used by enough people. By targeting recommendations to only those at risk, epidemics could be contained without resorting to mass quarantines ("lockdowns") that are harmful to society. We discuss the ethical requirements for an intervention of this kind.
| S-EPMC7164555 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Dysregulated immune responses contribute to the excessive and uncontrolled inflammation observed in severe COVID-19. However, how immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is induced and regulated remains unclear. Here we uncover a role of the complement system in the induction of innate and adaptive immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Complement rapidly opsonizes SARS-CoV-2 particles via the lectin pathway. Complement-opsonized SARS-CoV-2 efficiently induces type-I interferon and pro-inflammatory cytokine responses via activation of dendritic cells, which are inhibited by antibodies against the complement receptors (CR) 3 and 4. Serum from COVID-19 patients, or monoclonal antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, attenuate innate and adaptive immunity induced by complement-opsonized SARS-CoV-2. Blocking of CD32, the FcγRII antibody receptor of dendritic cells, restores complement-induced immunity. These results suggest that opsonization of SARS-CoV-2 by complement is involved in the induction of innate and adaptive immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in the acute phase of infection. Subsequent antibody responses limit inflammation and restore immune homeostasis. These findings suggest that dysregulation of the complement system and FcγRII signaling may contribute to severe COVID-19.
| S-SCDT-10_1038-S44318-024-00061-0 | biostudies-other
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic has stimulated wastewater-based surveillance, allowing public health to track the epidemic by monitoring the concentration of the genetic fingerprints of SARS-CoV-2 shed in wastewater by infected individuals. Wastewater-based surveillance for COVID-19 is still in its infancy. In particular, the quantitative link between clinical cases observed through traditional surveillance and the signals from viral concentrations in wastewater is still developing and hampers interpretation of the data and actionable public-health decisions. We present a modelling framework that includes both SARS-CoV-2 transmission at the population level and the fate of SARS-CoV-2 RNA particles in the sewage system after faecal shedding by infected persons in the population. Using our mechanistic representation of the combined clinical/wastewater system, we perform exploratory simulations to quantify the effect of surveillance effectiveness, public-health interventions and vaccination on the discordance between clinical and wastewater signals. We also apply our model to surveillance data from three Canadian cities to provide wastewater-informed estimates for the actual prevalence, the effective reproduction number and incidence forecasts. We find that wastewater-based surveillance, paired with this model, can complement clinical surveillance by supporting the estimation of key epidemiological metrics and hence better triangulate the state of an epidemic using this alternative data source.
| S-EPMC8993419 | biostudies-literature
Project description:During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, epidemic models have been central to policy-making. Public health responses have been shaped by model-based projections and inferences, especially related to the impact of various non-pharmaceutical interventions. Accompanying this has been increased scrutiny over model performance, model assumptions, and the way that uncertainty is incorporated and presented. Here we consider a population-level model, focusing on how distributions representing host infectiousness and the infection-to-death times are modelled, and particularly on the impact of inferred epidemic characteristics if these distributions are mis-specified. We introduce an SIR-type model with the infected population structured by 'infected age', i.e. the number of days since first being infected, a formulation that enables distributions to be incorporated that are consistent with clinical data. We show that inference based on simpler models without infected age, which implicitly mis-specify these distributions, leads to substantial errors in inferred quantities relevant to policy-making, such as the reproduction number and the impact of interventions. We consider uncertainty quantification via a Bayesian approach, implementing this for both synthetic and real data focusing on UK data in the period 15 Feb-14 Jul 2020, and emphasising circumstances where it is misleading to neglect uncertainty. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".
| S-EPMC9637393 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe SARS-CoV-2 pandemic currently prevails worldwide. To understand the immunological signature of SARS-CoV-2 infections and aid the search and evaluation of new treatment modalities and vaccines, comprehensive characterization of adaptive immune responses towards SARS-CoV-2 is needed.MethodsWe included 203 recovered SARS-CoV-2 infected patients in Denmark between April 3rd and July 9th 2020, at least 14 days after COVID-19 symptom recovery. The participants had experienced a range of disease severities from asymptomatic to severe. We collected plasma, serum and PBMC's for analysis of SARS-CoV-2 specific antibody response by Meso Scale analysis including other coronavirus strains, ACE2 competition, IgA ELISA, pseudovirus neutralization capacity, and dextramer flow cytometry analysis of CD8+ T cells. The immunological outcomes were compared amongst severity groups within the cohort, and 10 pre-pandemic SARS-CoV-2 negative controls.FindingsWe report broad serological profiles within the cohort, detecting antibody binding to other human coronaviruses. 202(>99%) participants had SARS-CoV-2 specific antibodies, with SARS-CoV-2 neutralization and spike-ACE2 receptor interaction blocking observed in 193(95%) individuals. A significant positive correlation (r=0.7804) between spike-ACE2 blocking antibody titers and neutralization potency was observed. Further, SARS-CoV-2 specific CD8+ T-cell responses were clear and quantifiable in 95 of 106(90%) HLA-A2+ individuals.InterpretationThe viral surface spike protein was identified as the dominant target for both neutralizing antibodies and CD8+ T-cell responses. Overall, the majority of patients had robust adaptive immune responses, regardless of their disease severity.FundingThis study was supported by the Danish Ministry for Research and Education (grant# 0238-00001B) and The Danish Innovation Fund (grant# 0208-00018B).
| S-EPMC8176920 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveThis paper motivates and justifies the use of antigen tests for epidemic control as distinct from a diagnostic test.Study design and settingWe discuss the relative advantages of antigen and PCR tests, summarizing evidence from both the literature as well as Austrian schools, which conducted frequent, mass rapid antigen testing during the spring of 2021. While our report on testing predates Delta, we have updated the review with recent data on viral loads in breakthrough infections and more information about testing efficacy, especially in children.ResultsRapid antigen tests detect proteins at the surface of virus particles, identifying the disease during its infectious phase. In contrast, PCR tests detect viral genomes: they can thus diagnose COVID-19 before the infectious phase but also react to remnants of the virus genome, even weeks after live virus ceases to be detectable in the respiratory tract. Furthermore, the logistics for administering the tests are different. Large-scale rapid antigen testing in Austrian schools showed low false-positive rates along with an approximately 10% lower effective reproduction number in the tested cohort.ConclusionUsing antigen tests at least 2-3 times per week could become a powerful tool to suppress the COVID-19 pandemic.
| S-EPMC8760838 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAfter relaxing social distancing measures, South Korea experienced a resurgent second epidemic wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this study, we aimed to identify the transmission dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections and assess the impact of COVID-19 case finding and contact tracing in each epidemic wave.MethodsWe collected data on COVID-19 cases published by local public health authorities in South Korea and divided the study into two epidemic periods (19 January-19 April 2020 for the first epidemic wave and 20 April-11 August 2020 for the second epidemic wave). To identify changes in the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2, the daily effective reproductive number (Rt) was estimated using the illness onset of the cases. Furthermore, to identify the characteristics of each epidemic wave, frequencies of cluster types were measured, and age-specific transmission probability matrices and serial intervals were estimated. The proportion of asymptomatic cases and cases with unknown sources of infection were also estimated to assess the changes of infections identified as cases in each wave.ResultsIn early May 2020, within 2-weeks of a relaxation in strict social distancing measures, Rt increased rapidly from 0.2 to 1.8 within a week and was around 1 until early July 2020. In both epidemic waves, the most frequent cluster types were religious-related activities and transmissions among the same age were more common. Furthermore, children were rarely infectors or infectees, and the mean serial intervals were similar (~ 3 days) in both waves. The proportion of asymptomatic cases at presentation increased from 22% (in the first wave) to 27% (in the second wave), while the cases with unknown sources of infection were similar in both waves (22 and 24%, respectively).ConclusionsOur study shows that relaxing social distancing measures was associated with increased SARS-CoV-2 transmission despite rigorous case findings in South Korea. Along with social distancing measures, the enhanced contact tracing including asymptomatic cases could be an efficient approach to control further epidemic waves.
| S-EPMC8154110 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-BSST379 | biostudies-other
Project description:Severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections have been associated with substantial presymptomatic transmission, which occurs when the generation interval-the time between infection of an individual with a pathogen and transmission of the pathogen to another individual-is shorter than the incubation period-the time between infection and symptom onset. We collected a dataset of 257 SARS-CoV-2 transmission pairs in Japan during 2020 and jointly estimated the mean incubation period of infectors (4.8 days, 95 % CrI: 4.4-5.1 days), mean generation interval to when they infect others (4.3 days, 95 % credible interval [CrI]: 4.0-4.7 days), and the correlation (Kendall's tau: 0.5, 95 % CrI: 0.4-0.6) between these two epidemiological parameters. Our finding of a positive correlation and mean generation interval shorter than the mean infector incubation period indicates ample infectiousness before symptom onset and suggests that reliance on isolation of symptomatic COVID-19 cases as a focal point of control efforts is insufficient to address the challenges posed by SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics.
| S-EPMC9661582 | biostudies-literature