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Increased risk of mortality by fibrosis stage in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

ABSTRACT: Liver fibrosis is the most important predictor of mortality in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Quantitative risk of mortality by fibrosis stage has not been systematically evaluated. We aimed to quantify the fibrosis stage-specific risk of all-cause and liver-related mortality in NAFLD. Through a systematic review and meta-analysis, we identified five adult NAFLD cohort studies reporting fibrosis stage-specific mortality (0-4). Using fibrosis stage 0 as a reference population, fibrosis stage-specific mortality rate ratios (MRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for all-cause and liver-related mortality were estimated. The study is reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. Included were 1,495 NAFLD patients with 17,452 patient years of follow-up. Compared to NAFLD patients with no fibrosis (stage 0), NAFLD patients with fibrosis were at an increased risk for all-cause mortality, and this risk increased with increases in the stage of fibrosis: stage 1, MRR = 1.58 (95% CI 1.19-2.11); stage 2, MRR = 2.52 (95% CI 1.85-3.42); stage 3, MRR = 3.48 (95% CI 2.51-4.83); and stage 4, MRR = 6.40 (95% CI 4.11-9.95). The results were more pronounced as the risk of liver-related mortality increased exponentially with each increase in the stage of fibrosis: stage 1, MRR = 1.41 (95% CI 0.17-11.95); stage 2, MRR = 9.57 (95% CI 1.67-54.93); stage 3, MRR = 16.69 (95% CI 2.92-95.36); and stage 4, MRR = 42.30 (95% CI 3.51-510.34). Limitations of the study include an inability to adjust for comorbid conditions or demographics known to impact fibrosis progression in NAFLD and the inclusion of patients with simple steatosis and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis without fibrosis in the reference comparison group.

Conclusion

The risk of liver-related mortality increases exponentially with increase in fibrosis stage; these data have important implications in assessing the utility of each stage and benefits of regression of fibrosis from one stage to another. (Hepatology 2017;65:1557-1565).

SUBMITTER: Dulai PS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5397356 | biostudies-literature | 2017 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Increased risk of mortality by fibrosis stage in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

Dulai Parambir S PS Singh Siddharth S Patel Janki J Soni Meera M Prokop Larry J LJ Younossi Zobair Z Sebastiani Giada G Ekstedt Mattias M Hagstrom Hannes H Nasr Patrik P Stal Per P Wong Vincent Wai-Sun VW Kechagias Stergios S Hultcrantz Rolf R Loomba Rohit R

Hepatology (Baltimore, Md.) 20170331 5

Liver fibrosis is the most important predictor of mortality in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Quantitative risk of mortality by fibrosis stage has not been systematically evaluated. We aimed to quantify the fibrosis stage-specific risk of all-cause and liver-related mortality in NAFLD. Through a systematic review and meta-analysis, we identified five adult NAFLD cohort studies reporting fibrosis stage-specific mortality (0-4). Using fibrosis stage 0 as a reference population, fibrosis ...[more]

PMID: 28130788

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Project description:Accurate staging of liver fibrosis is crucial to guide therapeutic decisions for patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Digital image analysis has emerged as a promising tool for quantitative assessment of fibrosis in chronic liver diseases. We sought to determine the relationship of histologic fibrosis stage with fiber amounts quantified in liver biopsy specimens for the better understanding of NAFLD progression. We measured area ratios of collagen and elastin fibers in Elastica van Gieson-stained biopsy tissues from 289 patients with NAFLD from four hospitals using an automated computational method and examined their correlations with Brunt's fibrosis stage. As a secondary analysis, we performed multivariable logistic regression analysis to assess the associations of the combined area ratios of collagen and elastin with noninvasive fibrosis markers. The combined fiber area ratios correlated strongly with Brunt's stage (Spearman correlation coefficient, 0.78; P < 0.0001), but this relationship was nonlinear (P = 0.007) with striking differences between stage 4 (median area ratios, 12.3%) and stages 0-3 (2.1%, 2.8%, 4.3%, and 4.8%, respectively). Elastin accumulation was common in areas of thick bridging fibrosis and thickened venous walls but not in areas of perisinusoidal fibrosis. The highest tertile of the combined fiber area ratios was associated with the fibrosis-4 index and serum type IV collagen 7s domain (7s collagen) levels, whereas the upper two tertiles of the fiber amounts significantly associated with body mass index, aspartate aminotransferase, and 7s collagen in the multivariable analysis. Conclusion: Quantitative fibrosis assessment reveals a nonlinear relationship between fibrosis stage and fiber amount, with a marked difference between stage 4 and stage 3 and much smaller differences among stages 0-3, suggesting a heterogeneity in disease severity within NAFLD-related cirrhosis. (Hepatology Communications 2018;2:58-68).

Project description:BackgroundThe risk of advanced fibrosis in first-degree relatives of patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and cirrhosis (NAFLD-cirrhosis) is unknown and needs to be systematically quantified. We aimed to prospectively assess the risk of advanced fibrosis in first-degree relatives of probands with NAFLD-cirrhosis.MethodsThis is a cross-sectional analysis of a prospective cohort of 26 probands with NAFLD-cirrhosis and 39 first-degree relatives. The control population included 69 community-dwelling twin, sib-sib, or parent-offspring pairs (n = 138), comprising 69 individuals randomly ascertained to be without evidence of NAFLD and 69 of their first-degree relatives. The primary outcome was presence of advanced fibrosis (stage 3 or 4 fibrosis). NAFLD was assessed clinically and quantified by MRI proton density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF). Advanced fibrosis was diagnosed by liver stiffness greater than 3.63 kPa using magnetic resonance elastography (MRE).ResultsThe prevalence of advanced fibrosis in first-degree relatives of probands with NAFLD-cirrhosis was significantly higher than that in the control population (17.9% vs. 1.4%, P = 0.0032). Compared with controls, the odds of advanced fibrosis among the first-degree relatives of probands with NAFLD-cirrhosis were odds ratio 14.9 (95% CI, 1.8-126.0, P = 0.0133). Even after multivariable adjustment by age, sex, Hispanic ethnicity, BMI, and diabetes status, the risk of advanced fibrosis remained both statistically and clinically significant (multivariable-adjusted odds ratio 12.5; 95% CI, 1.1-146.1, P = 0.0438).ConclusionUsing a well-phenotyped familial cohort, we demonstrated that first-degree relatives of probands with NAFLD-cirrhosis have a 12 times higher risk of advanced fibrosis. Advanced fibrosis screening may be considered in first-degree relatives of NAFLD-cirrhosis patients.Trial registrationUcsd irb140084.FundingNational Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, NIH.

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Increased risk of mortality by fibrosis stage in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

Conclusion

Publications

Increased risk of mortality by fibrosis stage in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

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