Dataset Information

Is early measles vaccination associated with stronger survival benefits than later measles vaccination?

ABSTRACT:

Background

Measles vaccine (MV) may protect against non-measles mortality. We tested whether survival depended on age of measles vaccination.

Methods

Bandim Health Project follows children under 5 years of age through a Health and Demographic Surveillance System in rural Guinea-Bissau. Children aged 6-36 months with a vaccination card inspected were followed to the next visit or for a maximum of 6 months. In Cox proportional-hazards models adjusted for age and village cluster, we compared the survival of children vaccinated with MV early (< 9 months), as recommended (9-11 months) or late (> 12+ months) with the survival of measles-unvaccinated children. Among measles-vaccinated children, we modelled the effect of age at measles vaccination linearly to assess mortality changes per month increase in vaccination age.

Results

From 1999 to 2006, 14,813 children (31,725 observations) were included. Children vaccinated with MV had a Hazard Ratio (HR) of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.63-0.91) compared with measles-unvaccinated children; censoring measles deaths did not change the results (HR = 0.79 (0.65-0.95)). For early MV the HR was 0.68 (0.53-0.87), for MV as recommended the HR was 0.77 (0.62-0.96) and for late MV the HR was 0.86 (0.67-1.11). Limiting the analysis to measles-vaccinated children, age at measles vaccination was associated with a 2.6% (0.4-5.1%) increase in mortality per month increase in vaccination age.

Conclusion

Early MV was associated with a large survival advantage. The current policy to increase vaccination age, when measles control improves, may not optimize the impact of MV on child survival.

SUBMITTER: Hansen JS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6081866 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Is early measles vaccination associated with stronger survival benefits than later measles vaccination?

Hansen Jesper Sloth JS Thysen Sanne Marie SM Rodrigues Amabelia A Martins Cesario C Fisker Ane Bærent AB

BMC public health 20180807 1

<h4>Background</h4>Measles vaccine (MV) may protect against non-measles mortality. We tested whether survival depended on age of measles vaccination.<h4>Methods</h4>Bandim Health Project follows children under 5 years of age through a Health and Demographic Surveillance System in rural Guinea-Bissau. Children aged 6-36 months with a vaccination card inspected were followed to the next visit or for a maximum of 6 months. In Cox proportional-hazards models adjusted for age and village cluster, we ...[more]

PMID: 30086732

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Project description:BackgroundThe advent of live-attenuated vaccines against measles virus during the 1960'ies changed the circulation dynamics of the virus. Earlier the virus was indigenous to countries worldwide, but now it is mediated by a limited number of evolutionary lineages causing sporadic outbreaks/epidemics of measles or circulating in geographically restricted endemic areas of Africa, Asia and Europe. We expect that the evolutionary dynamics of measles virus has changed from a situation where a variety of genomic variants co-circulates in an epidemic with relatively high probabilities of co-infection of the individual to a situation where a co-infection with strains from evolutionary different lineages is unlikely.ResultsWe performed an analysis of the partial sequences of the hemagglutinin gene of 18 measles virus strains collected in Denmark between 1965 and 1983 where vaccination was first initiated in 1987. The results were compared with those obtained with strains collected from other parts of the world after the initiation of vaccination in the given place. Intergenomic recombination among pre-/early-vaccination strains is suggested by 1) estimations of linkage disequilibrium between informative sites, 2) the decay of linkage disequilibrium with distance between informative sites and 3) a comparison of the expected number of homoplasies to the number of apparent homoplasies in the most parsimonious tree. No significant evidence of recombination could be demonstrated among strains circulating at present.ConclusionWe provide evidence that recombination can occur in measles virus and that it has had a detectable impact on sequence evolution of pre-vaccination samples. We were not able to detect recombination from present-day sequence surveys. We believe that the decreased rate of visible recombination may be explained by changed dynamics, since divergent strains do not meet very often in current epidemics that are often spawned by a single sequence type. Signs of pre-vaccination recombination events in the present-day sequences are not strong enough to be detectable.

Project description:ImportanceVaccine exemptions, which allow unvaccinated children to attend school, have increased by a factor of 28 since 2003 in Texas. Geographic clustering of unvaccinated children facilitates the spread of measles introductions, but the potential size of outbreaks is unclear.ObjectiveTo forecast the range of measles outbreak sizes in each metropolitan area of Texas at 2018 and future reduced school vaccination rates.Design, setting, and participantsAn agent-based decision analytical model using a synthetic population of Texas, derived from the 2010 US Census, was used to simulate measles transmission in the Texas population. Real schools were represented in the simulations, and the 2018 vaccination rate of each real school was applied to a simulated hypothetical equivalent. Single cases of measles were introduced, daily activities and interactions were modeled for each population member, and the number of infections over the course of 9 months was counted for 1000 simulated runs in each Texas metropolitan area.InterventionsTo determine the outcomes of further decreases in vaccination coverage, additional simulations were performed with vaccination rates reduced by 1% to 10% in schools with populations that are currently undervaccinated.Main outcomes and measuresExpected distributions of outbreak sizes in each metropolitan area of Texas at 2018 and reduced vaccination rates.ResultsAt 2018 vaccination rates, the median number of cases in large metropolitan areas was typically small, ranging from 1 to 3 cases, which is consistent with outbreaks in Texas 2006 to 2017. However, the upper limit of the distribution of plausible outbreaks (the 95th percentile, associated with 1 in 20 measles introductions) exceeded 400 cases in both the Austin and Dallas metropolitan areas, similar to the largest US outbreaks since measles was eliminated in 2000. Decreases in vaccination rates in schools with undervaccinated populations in 2018 were associated with exponential increases in the potential size of outbreaks: a 5% decrease in vaccination rate was associated with a 40% to 4000% increase in potential outbreak size, depending on the metropolitan area. A mean (SD) of 64% (11%) of cases occurred in students for whom a vaccine had been refused, but a mean (SD) of 36% (11%) occurred in others (ie, bystanders).Conclusions and relevanceThis study suggests that vaccination rates in some Texas schools are currently low enough to allow large measles outbreaks. Further decreases are associated with dramatic increases in the probability of large outbreaks. Limiting vaccine exemptions could be associated with a decrease in the risk of large measles outbreaks.

Project description:Background:There is a global resurgence of measles, consequent upon worldwide stagnating measles vaccination coverage. The study aim was to document trends and characteristics of reported cases of measles, measles-related deaths, and measles vaccination coverage (MCV1-first dose of measles-containing vaccine and MCV2-second dose of measles-containing vaccine) at national and sub-national level in Myanmar over a five year period between 2014 and 2018. Methods:This was a descriptive study using routine data collected and submitted to the Expanded Programme on Immunization. Results:Between 2014 and 2018, there were 2673 measles cases of which 2272 (85%) occurred in 2017 and 2018. Five adjacent regions in lower Myanmar were the most affected: in 2017 and 2018, these regions reported 1647 (73%) of the 2272 measles cases in the country. Overall, 73% of measles cases were laboratory confirmed, 21% were epidemiologically linked, and 6% were clinically compatible (clinical diagnosis only), with more laboratory confirmed cases in recent years. Annual measles-related deaths were either zero or one except in 2016 when there were 21 deaths, all occurring in one remote village. In the recent years, the most commonly affected age groups were 0-8 months, 9 months to 4 years, and ??15 years. Among 1907 measles cases with known vaccination status, only 22% had been vaccinated and 70% of those had only received one dose of vaccine. Annual MCV1 coverage nationally varied from 83 to 93% while annual MCV2 coverage nationally varied from 78 to 87%, with no clear trends over the years. Between 2014 and 2018, a high proportion of the 330 townships had MCV coverage <?95%. Over 80% of measles cases were reported from townships that had MCV coverage <?95%. Conclusion:There have been a large number of measles cases in recent years associated with sub-optimal measles vaccine coverage. Myanmar has already conducted supplemental immunization activities in October and November, 2019. Myanmar also needs to improve routine immunization services and targeted responses to measles outbreaks.

Dataset Information

Is early measles vaccination associated with stronger survival benefits than later measles vaccination?

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Is early measles vaccination associated with stronger survival benefits than later measles vaccination?

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