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Systematic dose-response of environmental epidemiologic studies: Dose and response pre-analysis.

ABSTRACT: Meta-analysis approaches can be used to assess the human risks due to exposure to environmental chemicals when there are numerous high-quality epidemiologic studies of priority outcomes in a database. However, methodological issues related to how different studies report effect measures and incorporate exposure into their analyses arise that complicate the pooled analysis of multiple studies. As such, there are "pre-analysis" steps that are often necessary to prepare summary data reported in epidemiologic studies for dose-response analysis. This paper uses epidemiologic studies of arsenic-induced health effects as a case example and addresses the issues surrounding the estimation of mean doses from censored dose- or exposure-intervals reported in the literature (e.g., estimation of mean doses from high exposures that are only reported as an open-ended interval), calculation of a common dose metric for use in a dose-response meta-analysis (one that takes into consideration inter-individual variability), and calculation of response "effective counts" that inherently account for confounders. The methods herein may be generalizable to 1) the analysis of other environmental contaminants with a suitable database of epidemiologic studies, and 2) any meta-analytic approach used to pool information across studies. A second companion paper detailing the use of "pre-analyzed" data in a hierarchical Bayesian dose-response model and techniques for extrapolating risks to target populations follows.

SUBMITTER: Allen B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7534797 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Systematic dose-response of environmental epidemiologic studies: Dose and response pre-analysis.

Allen Bruce B Shao Kan K Hobbie Kevin K Mendez William W Lee Janice S JS Cote Ila I Druwe Ingrid I Gift Jeff J Davis J Allen JA

Environment international 20200617

Meta-analysis approaches can be used to assess the human risks due to exposure to environmental chemicals when there are numerous high-quality epidemiologic studies of priority outcomes in a database. However, methodological issues related to how different studies report effect measures and incorporate exposure into their analyses arise that complicate the pooled analysis of multiple studies. As such, there are "pre-analysis" steps that are often necessary to prepare summary data reported in epi ...[more]

PMID: 32563010

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Project description:BackgroundFindings of observational studies that evaluated the association of serum vitamin D status and high blood pressure were contradictory. This meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies assessed the relation of serum vitamin D levels to hypertension (HTN) and pre-hypertension in adults.MethodsWe conducted a systematic search of all published articles up to March 2021, in four electronic databases (MEDLINE (PubMed), Web of Science (ISI), Embase and Scopus), and Google scholar. Seventy epidemiologic studies (10 prospective cohort, one nested case-control, and 59 cross-sectional investigations) that reported relative risks (RRs), odds ratios (ORs), hazard ratios, or prevalence ratios with 95% CIs for HTN or pre-hypertension in relation to serum vitamin D concentrations in adults were included in the analysis.ResultsIn prospective studies, a 16% decrease in risk of hypertension was observed in participants with high levels of serum vitamin D compared to low levels (RR: 0.84; 95%CI: 0.73, 0.96; 12 effect sizes). Dose-response analysis in prospective studies revealed that each 25 nmol/L increase in serum vitamin D concentrations resulted in 5% reduced risk of HTN (RR: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.90, 1.00). Also, a significant nonlinear relationship between serum vitamin D levels and HTN was found (Pnonlinearity < 0.001). In cross-sectional investigations, highest vs. lowest level of serum vitamin D was related to reduced odds of HTN (OR: 0.84; 95%CI: 0.79, 0.90; 66 effect sizes) and pre-hypertension (OR: 0.75; 0.95%CI: 0.68, 0.83; 9 effect sizes). Dose-response analysis in these studies showed that each 25 nmol/L increase in serum vitamin D levels was related to a significant 6% reduction in odds of hypertension in all populations (RR: 0.94; 95%CI: 0.90, 0.99) and 3% in studies with representative populations (RR: 0.97; 95%CI: 0.95, 0.99).ConclusionThis meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies disclosed that serum vitamin D concentrations were inversely related to the risk of HTN in adults, in a dose-response manner in both prospective cohort and cross-sectional studies.Systematic Review Registration: http://www.crd.york.ac.uk/Prospero, identifier: CRD42021251513.

Project description:In epidemiologic studies, association estimates of an exposure with disease outcomes are often biased when the uncertainties of exposure are ignored. Consequently, corresponding confidence intervals (CIs) will not have correct coverage. This issue is particularly problematic when exposures must be reconstructed from physical measurements, for example, for environmental or occupational radiation doses that were received by a study population for which radiation doses cannot be measured directly. To incorporate complex uncertainties in reconstructed exposures, the two-dimensional Monte Carlo (2DMC) dose estimation method has been proposed and used in various dose reconstruction efforts. The 2DMC method generates multiple exposure realizations from dosimetry models that incorporate various sources of errors to reflect the uncertainty of the dose distribution as well as the uncertainties in individual doses in the exposed population. Traditional measurement-error model approaches, typically based on using mean doses in the dose-exposure analysis, do not fully account exposure uncertainties. A recently developed statistical approach that overcomes many of these limitations by analyzing multiple exposure realizations in relation to disease risk is Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The analytic advantage of the BMA is its ability to better accommodate complex exposure uncertainty in the risk estimation, but a practical. Drawback is its significant computational complexity. In this present paper, we propose a novel frequentist model averaging (FMA) approach which has all the analytical advantages of the BMA method but is much simpler to implement and computationally faster. We show in simulations that, like BMA, FMA yields 95% confidence intervals for association parameters that close to 95% coverage rate. In simulations, the FMA has shorter length of CIs than those of another frequentist approach, the corrected information matrix (CIM) method. We illustrate the similarities in performance of BMA and FMA from a study of exposures from radioactive fallout in Kazakhstan.

Project description:Several epidemiological studies investigated the relation of Ca intake with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), but there were inconsistencies in their findings. So, we conducted a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis to quantify the relation of dietary Ca intake with the risk of T2DM/hyperglycemia in adults. A systematic search was conducted up to May 2021, in MEDLINE (Pubmed), Web of Science (WOS), Scopus electronic databases and Google Scholar, for epidemiological studies that investigated the relation of dietary Ca intake (as the exposure) and T2DM/hyperglycemia (as the outcome) in adults, without restriction in publication date and language. Finally, 8 cohort and 9 cross-sectional studies were included in the analysis. The body of evidence was assessed by the GRADE approach. Combining effect sizes from prospective cohort studies included 255,744 general adult population illustrated that highest level of dietary Ca intake, compared to lowest category, was related to an 18% reduced risk of T2DM (RR: 0.82; 95% CI 0.74-0.92). Based on linear dose-response analysis (including 255,744 healthy individuals and 13,531 patients with T2DM), each 300, 600 and 1000 mg/day increment in dietary Ca intake was respectively associated to 7, 14 and 23% reduced risk of T2DM. There was a steeper reduction in risk of T2DM when dietary Ca intake increased from low levels to 750 mg/day. Nevertheless, meta-analysis of cross-sectional studies revealed an inverse significant association between dietary Ca intake and T2DM/hyperglycemia only in the female population (OR: 0.66; 95% CI 0.50-0.88). This meta-analysis illustrated an inverse association between dietary Ca intake and risk of T2DM in general adult populations in prospective cohort studies, in a dose-response manner. It seems that increasing dietary Ca intake from low levels to around 750 mg/day was inversely related to risk of T2DM. In cross-sectional studies, an inverse relation between dietary Ca intake and T2DM/hyperglycemia was found only in females.

Project description:BackgroundCognitive impairment, including dementia, is a major health concern with the increasing aging population. Preventive measures to delay cognitive decline are of utmost importance. Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most frequent cause of dementia, increasing in prevalence from <1% below the age of 60 years to >40% above 85 years of age.MethodsWe systematically reviewed selected modifiable factors such as education, smoking, alcohol, physical activity, caffeine, antioxidants, homocysteine (Hcy), n-3 fatty acids that were studied in relation to various cognitive health outcomes, including incident AD. We searched MEDLINE for published literature (January 1990 through October 2012), including cross-sectional and cohort studies (sample sizes > 300). Analyses compared study finding consistency across factors, study designs and study-level characteristics. Selecting studies of incident AD, our meta-analysis estimated pooled risk ratios (RR), population attributable risk percent (PAR%) and assessed publication bias.ResultsIn total, 247 studies were retrieved for systematic review. Consistency analysis for each risk factor suggested positive findings ranging from ~38.9% for caffeine to ~89% for physical activity. Education also had a significantly higher propensity for "a positive finding" compared to caffeine, smoking and antioxidant-related studies. Meta-analysis of 31 studies with incident AD yielded pooled RR for low education (RR = 1.99; 95% CI: 1.30-3.04), high Hcy (RR = 1.93; 95% CI: 1.50-2.49), and current/ever smoking status (RR = 1.37; 95% CI: 1.23-1.52) while indicating protective effects of higher physical activity and n-3 fatty acids. Estimated PAR% were particularly high for physical activity (PAR% = 31.9; 95% CI: 22.7-41.2) and smoking (PAR% = 31.09%; 95% CI: 17.9-44.3). Overall, no significant publication bias was found.ConclusionsHigher Hcy levels, lower educational attainment, and decreased physical activity were particularly strong predictors of incident AD. Further studies are needed to support other potential modifiable protective factors, such as caffeine.

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Systematic dose-response of environmental epidemiologic studies: Dose and response pre-analysis.

Publications

Systematic dose-response of environmental epidemiologic studies: Dose and response pre-analysis.

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