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Modeling impact and cost-effectiveness of driving-Y gene drives for malaria elimination in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

ABSTRACT: Malaria elimination will be challenging in countries that currently continue to bear high malaria burden. Sex-ratio-distorting gene drives, such as driving-Y, could play a role in an integrated elimination strategy if they can effectively suppress vector populations. Using a spatially explicit, agent-based model of malaria transmission in eight provinces spanning the range of transmission intensities across the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we predict the impact and cost-effectiveness of integrating driving-Y gene drive mosquitoes in malaria elimination strategies that include existing interventions such as insecticide-treated nets and case management of symptomatic malaria. Gene drive mosquitoes could eliminate malaria and were the most cost-effective intervention overall if the drive component was highly effective with at least 95% X-shredder efficiency at relatively low fertility cost, and associated cost of deployment below 7.17 $int per person per year. Suppression gene drive could be a cost-effective supplemental intervention for malaria elimination, but tight constraints on drive effectiveness and cost ceilings may limit its feasibility.

SUBMITTER: Metchanun N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8792473 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modeling impact and cost-effectiveness of driving-Y gene drives for malaria elimination in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Metchanun Nawaphan N Borgemeister Christian C Amzati Gaston G von Braun Joachim J Nikolov Milen M Selvaraj Prashanth P Gerardin Jaline J

Evolutionary applications 20220107 1

Malaria elimination will be challenging in countries that currently continue to bear high malaria burden. Sex-ratio-distorting gene drives, such as driving-Y, could play a role in an integrated elimination strategy if they can effectively suppress vector populations. Using a spatially explicit, agent-based model of malaria transmission in eight provinces spanning the range of transmission intensities across the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we predict the impact and cost-effectiveness of int ...[more]

PMID: 35126652

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Project description:IntroductionIn 2018, Malaria accounted for 38% of the overall morbidity and 36% of the overall mortality in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This study aimed to identify malaria socioeconomic predictors among children aged 6-59 months in DRC and to describe a socioeconomic profile of the most-at-risk children aged 6-59 months for malaria infection.Materials and methodsThis study used data from the 2013 DRC Demographic and Health Survey. The sample included 8,547 children aged 6-59 months who were tested for malaria by microscopy. Malaria infection status, the dependent variable, is a dummy variable characterized as a positive or negative test. The independent variables were child's sex, age, and living arrangement; mother's education; household's socioeconomic variables; province of residence; and type of place of residence. Statistical analyses used the chi-square automatic interaction detector (CHAID) model and logistic regression.ResultsOf the 8,547 children included in the sample, 25% had malaria infection. Four variables-child's age, mother's education, province, and wealth index-were statistically associated with the prevalence of malaria infection in bivariate analysis and multivariate analysis (CHAID and logistic regression). The prevalence of malaria infection increases with child's age and decreases significantly with mother's education and the household wealth index. These findings suggest that the prevalence of malaria infection is driven by interactions among environmental factors, socioeconomic characteristics, and probably differences in the implementation of malaria programs across the country. The effect of mother's education on malaria infection was only significant among under-five children living in Ituri, Kasaï-Central, Haut-Uele, Lomami, Nord-Ubangi, and Maniema provinces, and the effect of wealth index was significant in Mai-Ndombe, Tshopo, and Haut-Katanga provinces.ConclusionFindings from this study could be used for targeting malaria interventions in DRC. Although malaria infection is common across the country, the prevalence of children at high risk for malaria infection varies by province and other background characteristics, including age, mother's education, wealth index, and place of residence. In light of these findings, designing provincial and multisectoral interventions could be an effective strategy to achieve zero malaria infection in DRC.

Project description:BackgroundSulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) is a cornerstone of malaria chemoprophylaxis and is considered for programmes in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). However, SP efficacy is threatened by drug resistance, that is conferred by mutations in the dhfr and dhps genes. The World Health Organization has specified that intermittent preventive treatment for infants (IPTi) with SP should be implemented only if the prevalence of the dhps K540E mutation is under 50%. There are limited current data on the prevalence of resistance-conferring mutations available from Eastern DRC. The current study aimed to address this knowledge gap.MethodsDried blood-spot samples were collected from clinically suspected malaria patients [outpatient department (OPD)] and pregnant women attending antenatal care (ANC) in four sites in North and South Kivu, DRC. Quantitative PCR (qPCR) was performed on samples from individuals with positive and with negative rapid diagnostic test (RDT) results. Dhps K450E and A581G and dhfr I164L were assessed by nested PCR followed by allele-specific primer extension and detection by multiplex bead-based assays.ResultsAcross populations, Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence was 47.9% (1160/2421) by RDT and 71.7 (1763/2421) by qPCR. Median parasite density measured by qPCR in RDT-negative qPCR-positive samples was very low with a median of 2.3 parasites/µL (IQR 0.5-25.2). Resistance genotyping was successfully performed in RDT-positive samples and RDT-negative/qPCR-positive samples with success rates of 86.2% (937/1086) and 55.5% (361/651), respectively. The presence of dhps K540E was high across sites (50.3-87.9%), with strong evidence for differences between sites (p < 0.001). Dhps A581G mutants were less prevalent (12.7-47.2%). The dhfr I164L mutation was found in one sample.ConclusionsThe prevalence of the SP resistance marker dhps K540E exceeds 50% in all four study sites in North and South Kivu, DRC. K540E mutations regularly co-occurred with mutations in dhps A581G but not with the dhfr I164L mutation. The current results do not support implementation of IPTi with SP in the study area.

Dataset Information

Modeling impact and cost-effectiveness of driving-Y gene drives for malaria elimination in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Publications

Modeling impact and cost-effectiveness of driving-Y gene drives for malaria elimination in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

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