Dataset Information

Individual surveillance by competing risk model for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence in all-cause cirrhosis.

ABSTRACT:

Purpose

It was of great significance to identify someone with a high risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence and make a diagnosis as early as possible. Therefore, we aimed to develop and validate a new, objective, and accurate prediction model, and convert it into a nomogram to make a personalized prediction of cancer occurrence in cirrhotic patients with different etiologies.

Methods

The present study included 938 patients with cirrhosis from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2012. Patients were prospectively followed-up until January 1, 2018. We used a competing risk model and the Fine-Gray test to develop and validate the prediction model and to plot a nomogram based on the model established.

Results

At the end of follow-up, 202 (21.5%) patients developed HCC, with a 5-year incidence of 19.0% (corrected for competing risk model). Based on the competing risk regression method, we built a prediction model including age, gender, etiology, lymphocyte, and A/G ratio. Three groups with different risks were generated on account of tertiles of the 5-year risk predicted by the model. The cumulative 1-, 3-, and 5-year incidences of HCC were 2.0%, 20.8%, and 42.3% in high-risk group, 0.9%, 10.1%, and 17.7% in medium-risk group, and 0%, 2.0%, 8.5% in low-risk group (P < 0.001). The model showed excellent discrimination and calibration in predicting the risk of HCC occurrence in patients with all-cause cirrhosis.

Conclusion

The model could make an individual prediction of cancer occurrence and stratify patients based on predicted risk, regardless of the causes of cirrhosis.

SUBMITTER: Wang Q

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10587216 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Individual surveillance by competing risk model for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence in all-cause cirrhosis.

Wang Qi Q Guo Dandan D Gao Wenfeng W Yuan Chunwang C Li Jianjun J Zhang Yinghua Y He Ning N Zhao Peng P Zheng Jiasheng J Zhang Yonghong Y

Journal of cancer research and clinical oncology 20230726 14

<h4>Purpose</h4>It was of great significance to identify someone with a high risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence and make a diagnosis as early as possible. Therefore, we aimed to develop and validate a new, objective, and accurate prediction model, and convert it into a nomogram to make a personalized prediction of cancer occurrence in cirrhotic patients with different etiologies.<h4>Methods</h4>The present study included 938 patients with cirrhosis from January 1, 2011, to Decembe ...[more]

PMID: 37495731

Similar Datasets

Project description:ImportanceCurrent recommendations for patients with cirrhosis are to undergo surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with ultrasonography (US) every 6 months. However, the sensitivity of US screening to detect early-stage HCC is suboptimal. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with liver-specific contrast may detect additional HCCs missed by US in high-risk patients with cirrhosis.ObjectiveTo compare the HCC detection rate of US and MRI in patients with cirrhosis who are at high risk for HCC.Design, setting, and participantsA prospective surveillance study of 407 patients with cirrhosis and an estimated annual risk of HCC greater than 5% who underwent 1 to 3 biannual screening examinations with paired US and liver-specific contrast-enhanced MRI at a tertiary care hospital between November 2011 and August 2014. All patients were followed-up with dynamic computed tomography (CT) at 6 months after the study. The confirmation of HCC was based on the results of histologic examination and/or typical CT images of HCC.Main outcomes and measuresHCC detection rates and false-positive findings of US vs MRI.ResultsA total of 407 eligible patients received 1100 screenings with paired US and MRI. Hepatocellular carcinomas were diagnosed in 43 patients: 1 detected by US only, 26 by MRI only, 11 by both, and 5 were missed by both. The HCC detection rate of MRI was 86.0% (37/43), significantly higher than the 27.9% (12/43) of US (P < .001). Magnetic resonance imaging showed a significantly lower rate of false-positive findings than US (3.0% vs 5.6%; P = .004). Of the 43 patients with HCC, 32 (74.4%) had very early-stage HCC (a single nodule <2 cm), and 29 (67.4%) received curative treatments. The 3-year survival rate of the patients with HCC (86.0%) was not inferior to those without HCC (94.2%; hazard ratio, 2.26; 95% CI, 0.92-5.56; P = .08).Conclusions and relevanceIn patients with cirrhosis at high-risk of HCC, screening that used MRI with liver-specific contrast resulted in a higher HCC detection rate and lower false-positive findings compared with US. With MRI screening, most of the cancers detected were at very early stage, which was associated with a high chance of curative treatments and favorable survival of patients. Whether surveillance with MRI would reduce mortality from HCC in high-risk patients requires further investigation.Trial registrationclinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01446666.

Project description:BackgroundHepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance is currently performed using a one-size-fits-all strategy with ultrasound plus AFP (US + AFP). There is increasing interest in risk-stratified and precision surveillance strategies incorporating individual risk and variance in surveillance test performance; however, the cost-effectiveness of these approaches has not been evaluated.MethodsWe conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis to evaluate four surveillance strategies (no surveillance, universal US + AFP surveillance, risk-stratified surveillance, and precision surveillance) in a simulated cohort of 50-year-old patients with compensated cirrhosis. The most cost-effective strategy was that with the highest incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and below the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $150,000/QALY gained. Model inputs were based on literature review, and costs were derived from the Medicare fee schedule.FindingsThe precision surveillance strategy demonstrated variation in recommended surveillance test based on HCC risk category and patient factors. US + AFP, risk-stratified, and precision surveillance detected more HCC cases per 100,000 population than no surveillance, with a higher proportion of early-stage cases for precision surveillance (67.6%) than risk-stratified (63.8%), universal ultrasound (63.2%), and no surveillance (38.0%). Compared to no surveillance, precision surveillance was most cost-effective, with an ICER of $104,614/QALY gained, whereas US + AFP and risk-stratified surveillance were both dominated. Compared to US + AFP, risk-stratified surveillance was cost saving and dominated US + AFP, whereas precision surveillance was cost-effective, with an ICER of $98,103/QALY gained. Results were sensitive to survival with early-stage HCC, cost of early-stage HCC treatment, and surveillance utilization. Precision surveillance remained the most cost-effective when WTP thresholds exceeded $110,000/QALY gained.InterpretationA precision surveillance strategy is the most cost-effective method for HCC surveillance. This approach could maximize surveillance benefits in high-risk patients, while minimizing surveillance harms in low-risk individuals.FundingNational Cancer Institute (U01 CA230694, R01 CA222900, R01 CA212008, and U24ca086368) and Cancer Prevention Research Institute of Texas (CPRIT) (RP200554).

Dataset Information

Individual surveillance by competing risk model for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence in all-cause cirrhosis.

Purpose

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Individual surveillance by competing risk model for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence in all-cause cirrhosis.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets