Modelling lockdown and exit strategies for COVID-19 in Singapore.

ABSTRACT:

Background

With at least 94 countries undergoing or exiting lockdowns for contact suppression to control the COVID-19 outbreak, sustainable and public health-driven exit strategies are required. Here we explore the impact of lockdown and exit strategies in Singapore for immediate planning.

Methods

We use an agent-based model to examine the impacts of epidemic control over 480 days. A limited control baseline of case isolation and household member quarantining is used. We measure the impact of lockdown duration and start date on final infection attack sizes. We then apply a 3-month gradual exit strategy, immediately re-opening schools and easing workplace distancing measures, and compare this to long-term social distancing measures.

Findings

At baseline, we estimated 8

SUBMITTER: Dickens BL 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7395828 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature