Dataset Information

Prediction of Incident Heart Failure in CKD: The CRIC Study.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Heart failure (HF) is common in chronic kidney disease (CKD); identifying patients with CKD at high risk for HF may guide clinical care. We assessed the prognostic value of cardiac biomarkers and echocardiographic variables for 10-year HF prediction compared with a published clinical HF prediction equation in a cohort of participants with CKD.

Methods

We studied 2147 Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) participants without prior HF with complete clinical, cardiac biomarker (N-terminal brain natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP] and high sensitivity troponin-T [hsTnT]), and echocardiographic data (left ventricular mass [LVM] and left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF] data). We compared the discrimination of the 11-variable Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) HF prediction equation with LVM, LVEF, hsTnT, and NT-proBNP to predict 10-year risk of hospitalization for HF using a Fine and Gray modeling approach. We separately evaluated prediction of HF with preserved and reduced LVEF (LVEF ≥50% and <50%, respectively). We assessed discrimination with internally valid C-indices using 10-fold cross-validation.

Results

Participants' mean (SD) age was 59 (11) years, 53% were men, 43% were Black, and mean (SD) estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 44 (16) ml/min per 1.73 m². A total of 324 incident HF hospitalizations occurred during median (interquartile range) 10.0 (5.7-10.0) years of follow-up. The ARIC HF model with clinical variables had a C-index of 0.68. Echocardiographic variables predicted HF (C-index 0.70) comparably to the published ARIC HF model, while NT-proBNP and hsTnT together (C-index 0.73) had significantly better discrimination (P = 0.004). A model including cardiac biomarkers, echocardiographic variables, and clinical variables had a C-index of 0.77. Discrimination of HF with preserved LVEF was lower than for HF with reduced LVEF for most models.

Conclusion

The ARIC HF prediction model for 10-year HF risk had modest discrimination among adults with CKD. NT-proBNP and hsTnT discriminated better than the ARIC HF model and at least as well as a model with echocardiographic variables. HF clinical prediction models tailored to adults with CKD are needed. Until then, measurement of NT-proBNP and hsTnT may be a low-burden approach to predicting HF in this population, as they offer moderate discrimination.

SUBMITTER: Zelnick LR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9039424 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Prediction of Incident Heart Failure in CKD: The CRIC Study.

Zelnick Leila R LR Shlipak Michael G MG Soliman Elsayed Z EZ Anderson Amanda A Christenson Robert R Kansal Mayank M Deo Rajat R He Jiang J Jaar Bernard G BG Weir Matthew R MR Rao Panduranga P Cohen Debbie L DL Cohen Jordana B JB Feldman Harold I HI Go Alan A Bansal Nisha N

Kidney international reports 20220202 4

<h4>Introduction</h4>Heart failure (HF) is common in chronic kidney disease (CKD); identifying patients with CKD at high risk for HF may guide clinical care. We assessed the prognostic value of cardiac biomarkers and echocardiographic variables for 10-year HF prediction compared with a published clinical HF prediction equation in a cohort of participants with CKD.<h4>Methods</h4>We studied 2147 Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) participants without prior HF with complete clinical, cardia ...[more]

PMID: 35497796

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Project description:Rationale & objectiveCirculating cardiac biomarkers may signal potential mechanistic pathways involved in heart failure (HF) and atrial fibrillation (AF). Single measures of circulating cardiac biomarkers are strongly associated with incident HF and AF in chronic kidney disease (CKD). We tested the associations of longitudinal changes in the N-terminal fragment of the prohormone brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT), galectin-3, growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15), and soluble ST-2 (sST-2) with incident HF and AF in patients with CKD.Study designObservational, case-cohort study design.Setting & participantsAdults with CKD enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort study.ExposuresBiomarkers were measured at baseline and 2 years later among those without kidney failure. We created 3 categories of absolute change in each biomarker: the lowest quartile, the middle 2 quartiles, and the top quartile.OutcomesThe primary outcomes were incident HF and AF.Analytical approachCox proportional hazards regression models were used to test the associations of the change categories of each cardiac biomarker with each outcome (with the middle 2 quartiles of change as the referent group), adjusting for potential confounders and baseline concentrations of each biomarker.ResultsThe incident HF analysis included 789 participants (which included 138 incident HF cases), and the incident AF analysis included 774 participants (123 incident AF cases). In multivariable models, the top quartile of NT-proBNP change (>232pg/mL over 2years) was associated with increased risk of incident HF (HR, 1.79 [95% CI, 1.06-3.04]) and AF (HR, 2.32 [95% CI, 1.37-3.93]) compared with the referent group. Participants in the top quartile of sST2 change (>3.37ng/mL over 2years) had significantly greater risk of incident HF (HR, 1.89 [95% CI, 1.13-3.16]), whereas those in the bottom quartile (≤-3.78ng/mL over 2years) had greater risk of incident AF (HR, 2.43 [95% CI, 1.39-4.22]) compared with the 2 middle quartiles. There was no association of changes in hsTnT, galectin-3, or GDF-15 with incident HF or AF.LimitationsObservational study.ConclusionsIn CKD, increases in NT-proBNP were significantly associated with greater risk of incident HF and AF, and increases in sST2 were associated with HF. Further studies should investigate whether these markers of subclinical cardiovascular disease can be modified to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease in CKD.

Project description:Rationale & objectiveQuality of life in chronic kidney disease (CKD) is impaired by a large burden of symptoms including some that overlap with the symptoms of heart failure (HF). We studied a group of individuals with CKD to understand the patterns and trajectories of HF-type symptoms in this setting.Study designProspective cohort study.Setting & participants3,044 participants in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) without prior diagnosis of HF.PredictorsSociodemographics, medical history, medications, vital signs, laboratory values, echocardiographic and electrocardiographic parameters.OutcomeTrajectory over 5.5 years of a HF-type symptom score (modified Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire [KCCQ] Overall Summary Score with a range of 0-100 where<75 reflects clinically significant symptoms).Analytical approachLatent class mixed models were used to model trajectories. Multinomial logistic regression was used to model relationships of predictors with trajectory group membership.ResultsFive trajectories of KCCQ score were identified in the cohort of 3,044 adults, 45% of whom were female, and whose median age was 61 years. Group 1 (41.7%) had a stable high score (minimal symptoms, average score of 96); groups 2 (35.6%) and 3 (15.6%) had stable but lower scores (mild symptoms [average of 81] and clinically significant symptoms [average of 52], respectively). Group 4 (4.9%) had a substantial worsening in symptoms over time (mean 31-point decline), and group 5 (2.2%) had a substantial improvement (mean 33-point increase) in KCCQ score. A majority of group 1 was male, without diabetes or obesity, and this group had higher baseline kidney function. A majority of groups 2 and 3 had diabetes and obesity. A majority of group 4 was male and had substantial proteinuria. Group 5 had the highest proportion of baseline cardiovascular disease (CVD).LimitationsNo validation cohort available, CKD management changes in recent years may alter trajectories, and latent class models depend on the missing at random assumption.ConclusionsDistinct HF-type symptom burden trajectories were identified in the setting of CKD, corresponding to different baseline characteristics. These results highlight the diversity of HF-type symptom experiences in individuals with CKD.

Project description:Rationale & objectiveFew studies have examined incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in chronic kidney disease (CKD). Our objective was to examine rates of and risk factors for T2DM in CKD, using several alternative measures of glycemic control.Study designProspective cohort study.Setting & participants1,713 participants with reduced glomerular filtration rates and without diabetes at baseline, enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study.PredictorsMeasures of kidney function and damage, fasting blood glucose, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), HOMA-IR (homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance), demographics, family history of diabetes mellitus (DM), smoking status, medication use, systolic blood pressure, triglyceride level, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, body mass index, and physical activity.OutcomeIncident T2DM (defined as fasting blood glucose ≥ 126mg/dL or prescription of insulin or oral hypoglycemic agents).Analytical approachConcordance between fasting blood glucose and HbA1c levels was assessed using κ. Cause-specific hazards modeling, treating death and end-stage kidney disease as competing events, was used to predict incident T2DM.ResultsOverall T2DM incidence rate was 17.81 cases/1,000 person-years. Concordance between fasting blood glucose and HbA1c levels was low (κ for categorical versions of fasting blood glucose and HbA1c = 13%). Unadjusted associations of measures of kidney function and damage with incident T2DM were nonsignificant (P ≥ 0.4). In multivariable models, T2DM was significantly associated with fasting blood glucose level (P = 0.002) and family history of DM (P = 0.03). The adjusted association of HOMA-IR with T2DM was comparable to that of fasting blood glucose level; the association of HbA1c level was nonsignificant (P ≥ 0.1). Harrell's C for the models ranged from 0.62 to 0.68.LimitationsLimited number of outcome events; predictors limited to measures taken at baseline.ConclusionsThe T2DM incidence rate among individuals with CKD is markedly higher than in the general population, supporting the need for greater vigilance in this population. Measures of glycemic control and family history of DM were independently associated with incident T2DM.

Project description:Rationale & objectiveHypertension is a known risk factor for dementia and cognitive impairment. There are limited data on the relation of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) with incident cognitive impairment in adults with chronic kidney disease. We sought to identify and characterize the relationship among blood pressure, cognitive impairment, and severity of decreased kidney function in adults with chronic kidney disease.Study designLongitudinal cohort study.Setting & participants3,768 participants in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study.ExposureBaseline SBP and DBP were examined as exposure variables, using continuous (linear, per 10-mm Hg higher), categorical (SBP<120 [reference], 120 to 140,>140mm Hg; DBP<70 (reference), 70 to 80, > 80mm Hg) and nonlinear terms (splines).OutcomeIncident cognitive impairment defined as a decline in Modified Mini-Mental State Examination (3MS) score to greater than 1 standard deviation below the cohort mean.Analytical approachCox proportional hazard models adjusted for demographics as well as kidney disease and cardiovascular disease risk factors.ResultsThe mean age of participants was 58±11 (SD) years, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 44mL/min/1.73m2 ± 15 (SD), and the median follow-up time was 11 (IQR, 7-13) years. In 3,048 participants without cognitive impairment at baseline and with at least 1 follow-up 3MS test, a higher baseline SBP was significantly associated with incident cognitive impairment only in the eGFR>45mL/min/1.73m2 subgroup (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 1.13 [95% CI, 1.05-1.22] per 10mm Hg higher SBP]. Spline analyses, aimed at exploring nonlinearity, showed that the relationship between baseline SBP and incident cognitive impairment was J-shaped and significant only in the eGFR>45mL/min/1.73m2 subgroup (P=0.02). Baseline DBP was not associated with incident cognitive impairment in any analyses.Limitations3MS test as the primary measure of cognitive function.ConclusionsAmong patients with chronic kidney disease, higher baseline SBP was associated with higher risk of incident cognitive impairment specifically in those individuals with eGFR>45mL/min/1.73m2.Plain-language summaryHigh blood pressure is a strong risk factor for dementia and cognitive impairment in studies of adults without kidney disease. High blood pressure and cognitive impairment are common in adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The impact of blood pressure on the development of future cognitive impairment in patients with CKD remains unclear. We identified the relationship between blood pressure and cognitive impairment in 3,076 adults with CKD. Baseline blood pressure was measured, after which serial cognitive testing was performed over 11 years. Fourteen percent of participants developed cognitive impairment. We found that a higher baseline systolic blood pressure was associated with an increased risk of cognitive impairment. We found that this association was stronger in adults with mild-to-moderate CKD compared with those with advanced CKD.

Project description:Rationale & objectiveDysnatremias have been associated with an increased risk of mortality in the chronic kidney disease (CKD) population. Our objective is to identify the prevalence of and risk factors associated with dysnatremias in a CKD population and assess the association of dysnatremias with kidney failure and mortality among patients with CKD enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study.Study designAnalysis of prospective cohort study.Setting & participantsAdult patients aged 21-74 years with CKD from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort study.PredictorsBaseline and time-dependent hyponatremia and hypernatremia.OutcomesAll-cause mortality and kidney failure.Analytical approachBaseline characteristics were compared using χ2 tests for categorical variables, analysis of variance for age, and Kruskal-Wallis tests for laboratory variables. Cox proportional hazards models and competing risk models were used to evaluate the association between baseline sodium level and overall mortality.ResultsOf a total of 5,444 patients with CKD, 486 (9%) had hyponatremia and 53 (1%) had hypernatremia. Altogether, 1,508 patients died and 1,206 reached kidney failure. In adjusted Cox models, time-dependent dysnatremias were strongly associated with mortality for both hyponatremia (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.16-1.64) and hypernatremia (HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.04-2.29). Factors associated with hyponatremia included female sex, diabetes, and hypertension. Regardless of age, time-dependent hypernatremia was associated with an increased risk of kidney failure (HR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.06-2.53). Baseline and time-dependent hyponatremia were associated with an increased risk of kidney failure in patients younger than 65 (baseline hyponatremia HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.03-1.64 and time-dependent hyponatremia HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.09-1.70) but not among patients aged >65 years.LimitationsInability to establish causality and lack of generalizability to hospitalized patients.ConclusionsDysnatremias are prevalent among ambulatory CKD patients and are associated with mortality and kidney failure. Time-dependent dysnatremias were significantly associated with mortality in patients with CKD. Time-dependent hypernatremia was associated with progression to kidney failure. Baseline and time-dependent hyponatremia were associated with an increased risk of progression to kidney failure in those younger than 65 years.

Dataset Information

Prediction of Incident Heart Failure in CKD: The CRIC Study.

Introduction

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Prediction of Incident Heart Failure in CKD: The CRIC Study.

Similar Datasets

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