Dataset Information

Progression likelihood score identifies substages of presymptomatic type 1 diabetes in childhood public health screening.

ABSTRACT:

Aims/hypothesis

The aim of this study was to develop strategies that identify children from the general population who have late-stage presymptomatic type 1 diabetes and may, therefore, benefit from immune intervention.

Methods

We tested children from Bavaria, Germany, aged 1.75-10 years, enrolled in the Fr1da public health screening programme for islet autoantibodies (n=154,462). OGTT and HbA_1c were assessed in children with multiple islet autoantibodies for diagnosis of presymptomatic stage 1 (normoglycaemia) or stage 2 (dysglycaemia) type 1 diabetes. Cox proportional hazards and penalised logistic regression of autoantibody, genetic, metabolic and demographic information were used to develop a progression likelihood score to identify children with stage 1 type 1 diabetes who progressed to stage 3 (clinical) type 1 diabetes within 2 years.

Results

Of 447 children with multiple islet autoantibodies, 364 (81.4%) were staged. Undiagnosed stage 3 type 1 diabetes, presymptomatic stage 2, and stage 1 type 1 diabetes were detected in 41 (0.027% of screened children), 30 (0.019%) and 293 (0.19%) children, respectively. The 2 year risk for progression to stage 3 type 1 diabetes was 48% (95% CI 34, 58) in children with stage 2 type 1 diabetes (annualised risk, 28%). HbA_1c, islet antigen-2 autoantibody positivity and titre, and the 90 min OGTT value were predictors of progression in children with stage 1 type 1 diabetes. The derived progression likelihood score identified substages corresponding to ≤90th centile (stage 1a, n=258) and >90th centile (stage 1b, n=29; 0.019%) of stage 1 children with a 4.1% (95% CI 1.4, 6.7) and 46% (95% CI 21, 63) 2 year risk of progressing to stage 3 type 1 diabetes, respectively.

Conclusions/interpretation

Public health screening for islet autoantibodies found 0.027% of children to have undiagnosed clinical type 1 diabetes and 0.038% to have undiagnosed presymptomatic stage 2 or stage 1b type 1 diabetes, with 50% risk to develop clinical type 1 diabetes within 2 years.

SUBMITTER: Weiss A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9630406 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Progression likelihood score identifies substages of presymptomatic type 1 diabetes in childhood public health screening.

Weiss Andreas A Zapardiel-Gonzalo Jose J Voss Franziska F Jolink Manja M Stock Joanna J Haupt Florian F Kick Kerstin K Welzhofer Tiziana T Heublein Anja A Winkler Christiane C Achenbach Peter P Ziegler Anette-Gabriele AG Bonifacio Ezio E

Diabetologia 20220827 12

<h4>Aims/hypothesis</h4>The aim of this study was to develop strategies that identify children from the general population who have late-stage presymptomatic type 1 diabetes and may, therefore, benefit from immune intervention.<h4>Methods</h4>We tested children from Bavaria, Germany, aged 1.75-10 years, enrolled in the Fr1da public health screening programme for islet autoantibodies (n=154,462). OGTT and HbA<sub>1c</sub> were assessed in children with multiple islet autoantibodies for diagnosis ...[more]

PMID: 36028774

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Project description:IntroductionThe identification of type 1 diabetes at an early presymptomatic stage has clinical benefits. These include a reduced risk of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) at the clinical manifestation of the disease and a significant reduction in clinical symptoms. The European action for the Diagnosis of Early Non-clinical Type 1 diabetes For disease Interception (EDENT1FI) represents a pioneering effort to advance early detection of type 1 diabetes through public health screening. With the EDENT1FI Master Protocol, the project aims to harmonise and standardise screening for early-stage type 1 diabetes and care.Methods and analysisPublic health islet autoantibody screening is conducted in the Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Sweden and the UK. Between November 2023 (start date) and October 2028 (planned end date), an estimated number of 200 000 children and adolescents aged 1-17 years are expected to be screened. Screening is performed in capillary blood, examining different islet autoantibodies (autoantibodies against insulin, glutamic acid decarboxylase-65, insulinoma-associated antigen-2 and/or zinc transporter-8). Positive screening results undergo confirmation through a second antibody method. A second (venous) blood sample is requested if at least two autoantibodies are detected, to confirm the autoantibody status. Children and adolescents with confirmed two or more autoantibodies are invited to metabolic staging (oral glucose tolerance test, haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), random glucose, optionally continuous glucose monitoring); an educational programme and recommendations for monitoring are provided. The feasibility and acceptability of screening are evaluated by feedback questionnaires. Pseudonymised data is collated in the EDENT1FI Registry. Study outcomes include country-specific screening rates, prevalences of stage 1 and stage 2 type 1 diabetes, number in EDENT1FI Registry, proportion with DKA and symptoms at clinical diagnosis and median HbA1c.Ethics and disseminationFollowing the EDENT1FI Master Protocol, site-specific protocols are developed and approved by local ethics committees (Technical University of Munich, Medical Faculty, Nr. 70/14; Medizinische Hochschule Hannover, Nr. 9588_BO_S_2021; Technische Universität Dresden, Nr. BO-EK-356082020; Center for Sundhed Region Hovedstaden, Nr. H-22053116; Swedish Ethical Review Authority, Nr. 2023-00312-01; National Health Service Health Research Authority and Health Care Research Wales, IRAS (Integrated Research Application System) project ID 309252; Italian National Institute of Health, National ethics committee for clinical trials of public research bodies (EPR) and other national public institutions, Prot. PRE BIO CE Nr. 0059835; Charles University in Prague, Ethics Committee for Multi-Centric Clinical Trials of the University Hopital Motol and 2nd Faculty of Medicine, Nr. 1271/23; Bioethics Committee at the Medical University of Warsaw, Nr. 21/2024 and KB/6/R/2024; Associação Protectora dos Diabéticos de Portugal, Nr. 211/2024). Results are disseminated through peer-reviewed journals and conference presentations and will be shared openly.

Project description:BackgroundEarly prediction of childhood type 1 diabetes reduces ketoacidosis at diagnosis and provides opportunities for disease prevention. However, only highly efficient approaches are likely to succeed in public health settings. We sought to identify efficient strategies for initial islet autoantibody screening in children younger than 15 years.MethodsWe harmonised data from five prospective cohorts from Finland (DIPP), Germany (BABYDIAB), Sweden (DiPiS), and the USA (DAISY and DEW-IT) into the Type 1 Diabetes Intelligence (T1DI) cohort. 24 662 children at high risk of diabetes enrolled before age 2 years were included and followed up for islet autoantibodies and diabetes until age 15 years, or type 1 diabetes onset, whichever occurred first. Islet autoantibodies measured included those against glutamic acid decarboxylase, insulinoma antigen 2, and insulin. Main outcomes were sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) of detected islet autoantibodies, tested at one or two fixed ages, for diagnosis of clinical type 1 diabetes.FindingsOf the 24 662 participants enrolled in the Type 1 Diabetes Intelligence cohort, 6722 total were followed up to age 15 years or until onset of type 1 diabetes. Type 1 diabetes developed by age 15 years in 672 children, but did not develop in 6050 children. Optimal screening ages for two measurements were 2 years and 6 years, yielding sensitivity of 82% (95% CI 79-86) and PPV of 79% (95% CI 75-80) for diabetes by age 15 years. Autoantibody positivity at the beginning of each test age was highly predictive of diagnosis in the subsequent 2-5·99 year or 6-15-year age intervals. Autoantibodies usually appeared before age 6 years even in children diagnosed with diabetes much later in childhood.InterpretationOur results show that initial screening for islet autoantibodies at two ages (2 years and 6 years) is sensitive and efficient for public health translation but might require adjustment by country on the basis of population-specific disease characteristics.FundingJuvenile Diabetes Research Foundation.

Project description:ObjectiveWe tested the ability of a type 1 diabetes (T1D) genetic risk score (GRS) to predict progression of islet autoimmunity and T1D in at-risk individuals.Research design and methodsWe studied the 1,244 TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study participants (T1D patients' relatives without diabetes and with one or more positive autoantibodies) who were genotyped with Illumina ImmunoChip (median [range] age at initial autoantibody determination 11.1 years [1.2-51.8], 48% male, 80.5% non-Hispanic white, median follow-up 5.4 years). Of 291 participants with a single positive autoantibody at screening, 157 converted to multiple autoantibody positivity and 55 developed diabetes. Of 953 participants with multiple positive autoantibodies at screening, 419 developed diabetes. We calculated the T1D GRS from 30 T1D-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. We used multivariable Cox regression models, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, and area under the curve (AUC) measures to evaluate prognostic utility of T1D GRS, age, sex, Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) Risk Score, positive autoantibody number or type, HLA DR3/DR4-DQ8 status, and race/ethnicity. We used recursive partitioning analyses to identify cut points in continuous variables.ResultsHigher T1D GRS significantly increased the rate of progression to T1D adjusting for DPT-1 Risk Score, age, number of positive autoantibodies, sex, and ethnicity (hazard ratio [HR] 1.29 for a 0.05 increase, 95% CI 1.06-1.6; P = 0.011). Progression to T1D was best predicted by a combined model with GRS, number of positive autoantibodies, DPT-1 Risk Score, and age (7-year time-integrated AUC = 0.79, 5-year AUC = 0.73). Higher GRS was significantly associated with increased progression rate from single to multiple positive autoantibodies after adjusting for age, autoantibody type, ethnicity, and sex (HR 2.27 for GRS >0.295, 95% CI 1.47-3.51; P = 0.0002).ConclusionsThe T1D GRS independently predicts progression to T1D and improves prediction along T1D stages in autoantibody-positive relatives.

Dataset Information

Progression likelihood score identifies substages of presymptomatic type 1 diabetes in childhood public health screening.

Aims/hypothesis

Methods

Results

Conclusions/interpretation

Publications

Progression likelihood score identifies substages of presymptomatic type 1 diabetes in childhood public health screening.

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